12/24/23 8:05 am
I am happy to see this storm go away. Although it was “right for the wrong reasons” in some areas. It was a huge disappointment for others. I talked about storm cycles repeating, it is interesting to note, that no sooner did the models see the demise of this storm, they have temporarily undone the New Year’s Eve storm.
We will see. The cold air showed up right on time according to the MJO models.
Here is the GFS
You can see that it emerged deep into Phase 1 yesterday. The forecast starts today (24th). The redline is week one, the blue line is week 2. According to this model we will stay in Phase 1 & 2 until 1/07.
The European show nearly the same forecast.
The European loses amplitude after 1/03 and drops into low amplitude Phase 3.
Phases 1 & 2 are favorable for colder weather in our area.
Here is an interesting run of the European Ensembles. This is a multi-model run that shows the average of 51 runs.
These are high and low-pressure anomalies. The low-pressure (stormy) anomalies are in the cooler blues and greens. The high-pressure anomalies are shown in the warm colors of orange, red, and yellow.
This run begins on January first.
Could this be the late start to winter that I have been opining on for several months?
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