7/7/24 Sunday 8:50 am
Afternoon showers return this week, primarily across northern portions of the forecast area. By mid-week, models indicate a slight chance of showers moving further south, affecting areas mostly north of HWY 160. Significant accumulations are not expected over the week. Here are the maps in motion for the next ten days.
The big question is when monsoonal conditions will return to SW Colorado. The best guess comes from the long-term models. The GFS and European models show this moisture returning after the 15th, most likely after the 17th of this month.
First, it is important to note that the European model often projects current conditions into the future. In fact, while it was raining, the European model showed a much wetter long-term forecast than it shows now.
For what it is worth, the GFS has been pretty consistent regarding the return to monsoonal conditions, with a healthy long-term forecast into the future.
First, let’s examine the total precipitation forecast from the European and GFS models’ deterministic (daily) runs.
These runs are from overnight. The European has a maximum runtime of 10 days; the GFS has a maximum runtime of 14 days.
European 10-day Precipitation
GFS 14-day Precipitation
GFS 35-day Precipitation Anomaly (precipitation amount above or below normal)
The European 32-day Precipitation Anomaly (precipitation amount above or below normal)
The tale of two models. The European tells a different story than last week. I would also note that what it shows is a literal impossibility.
Now what? To jog your memory, last week, I mentioned that my biggest regret regarding the last precipitation event was ignoring the Canadian model, which had the most accurate forecast.
Environment Canada does have an extended model. The only problem with the Canadian model is that it only updates weekly rather than daily, like the European model and the GFS.
But here it is. This came out early July 5th.
Canadian Extended Model precipitation anomaly (precipitation amount above or below normal).
That’s a lot to absorb today. My next post will be on Tuesday. Enjoy the heat–if you’re into that.