Monday Morning Update

durangoweatherguy

1 year ago

10/28/24 Monday 4:30 am

Here are the latest Advisories from the National Weather Service. These are pretty cautious, depending on what I see over the next 12 hours, I may be inclined to push them a bit.

COZ009-010-012-018-282200-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0028.241029T0000Z-241030T1800Z/
G-
Including the cities of Telluride, Skyway, Aspen, Vail, Snowmass, Crested
Butte, Taylor Park, Marble, 
220 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
MDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 9000 feet. Total snow accumulations
  between 5 and 11 inches with locally higher amounts over the
  higher peaks of the Elks. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains, Gore and Elk
  Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys, Grand and Battlement Mesas,
  and West Elk and Sawatch Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult
  to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
  morning and evening commutes.

COZ019-282200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0028.241029T0000Z-241030T1200Z/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Silverton, Rico
220 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected Above 9000 feet. Total snow
  accumulations between 6 and 12 inches, with locally higher
  amounts. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult  to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

COZ068-281715-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0029.241029T0300Z-241029T2100Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Including Wolf Creek Pass and Cumbres Pass
307 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM MDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 7 and
  14 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet County.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 PM MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, especially
  over Wolf Creek Pass. Strong winds could cause damage to trees and
  power lines, and could lead to dangerous travel conditions with
  near zero visibilities.

Several encouraging signs appeared in the suite of overnight model runs. The mild Autumn conditions we have been experiencing since the last blast will end abruptly.

There are several signs that the lower elevations may see their first flakes. Temps will plummet into the low 20s in the lower elevation after the storm leaves the area!

The GFS is struggling again, with low-elevation precipitation totals yielding an unrealistic precipitation spread across the forecast area.

I like what I saw on the European this morning; this is a realistic forecast.

Liquid equivalent