12/6/25 Saturday 3 am
⚠️ Red Mountain Pass Closure & Model Verification: GFS Wins (For Now)
After nearly 2 feet of snow from Ouray to Red Mountain, there are scheduled maintenance operations today.
“Southwest Colorado — US Highway 550 Red Mountain Pass between Silverton and Ouray will be closed to travel on Saturday, Dec. 6, while the Colorado Department of Transportation performs safety-critical winter maintenance operations. Saturday morning’s operations are anticipated to have minor traffic impacts with delays beginning at 8 a.m. between Mile Points 80 and 81.” “Minor impacts,” of course, are relative to people’s patience levels.
FYI they are planning additional operations on Tuesday.
Interestingly enough, the US GFS model is the only one to verify at this hour. Verification occurs when a model forecasts a specific condition at a particular hour, and that condition actually occurs. In this case, the GFS showed snow starting in the northern forecast area from Purgatory to the north. The GFS is correct; it is snowing at Purgatory and Telluride, and it is not yet snowing at Wolf Creek.
Speaking of snowing at Purgatory, I can’t confirm the recent rumors that their new webcam shows AI generated snowfall. I did not make this up, I got a few emails about it. I am of course kidding about the “can’t confirm” however, I was a little disappointed with the new cam (kind of like our “radar”), it sure looks like their old snowstake with a ring doorbell and an Amazon Basics led flashlight…
NWS Advisory & Forecast Outlook
Back to the storm, NWS has used the feedback from last week’s storm to issue a Winter Weather Advisory. They know they underforecast the systems and are concerned that another sneaky storm will overperform what the models are showing — which in many models is nothing.
Northwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn Pass, and Lake City 139 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 9000 FEET…
WHAT: Snow expected above 9000 feet. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.
WHERE: Northwest San Juan Mountains.
WHEN: Until 11 PM MST this evening.
I am not one who likes a lot of model disagreement but I will play along with this scenario. I have also been seeing enhanced precipitation for Ouray, if it occurs maximum potential would be slightly above the 12 -15 inch level. If not I would be more comfortable with 4 to 8 for both Telluride and Ouray.
Purgatory is a tough call. NW flow systems underperform at Purgatory and Wolf Creek. I suppose 2 to 4 max is possible at Purgatory in perfect conditions. That would surprise me though. Less at Wolf Creek today.
The further north you go the better chance of seeing a few flurries or light snow. But I do not expect anything in the lower elevations this time.