12/29/25 Monday 5 am
The overall theme in the weather today is poor model performance, and horrible model performance–more on that in a minute.
Not that they have been trustworthy, but the models have been pointing towards another disturbance entering the forecast area around the New Years.
That continues to be the case. I am going to go out on a limb and call it “more of the same”. A couple of weak pulses potentially coming through on Thursday into Friday.
Beyond that, just as we have seen with the MJO. The models have no clue what they are doing. The worst example I have ever seen since I have been doing this showed up when comparing sequential runs from the US GFS model’s “AI-enhanced” version.
First run- yesterday morning’s 5 am run. These are temperature anomalies (what we used to call departure from average).
The white over Minnesota indicates a forecast for 40+ degree positive anomalies for January 9th (40 degrees above average).
Same model, same time period, 6 hours later.
Negative anomalies! 30+ degree negative anomalies ( 30 degrees below average) over the same area. That’s a 70+ degree change in the forecast in 6 hours!
Not all AI models are this reckless. The GFS has, over the last couple of years, developed the worst AI-enhanced weather model.
It’s no wonder the models are struggling with where to place the MJO. For now, it’s still stuck in the weather circle of death.
I am still catching up on emails. I hope to be caught up by tomorrow. Thank you for all the kind words and support!
After my last update, I had one more thing happen I need advice on: the (huge) kitten has discovered the kitchen counters. She knocked a wine glass into the sink, of course, all of the glass went into the garbage disposal. I have been letting it dry out to get my shop vac in there. Does anyone have experience with getting the disposal working again? Or will I need to call a professional and/or purchase a new disposal?