12/30/25 Tuesday 4:30 am
Maybe “Storm” is too ambitious… How about a not-yet-defined precipitation event (NDPE)? Just made that up.
By the way, thanks to all the DIY folks who emailed me about the disposal. Got it up and running again in just a few minutes!
I picked out a couple of interesting maps this morning. Many were not worthy of making the list. The others I picked based on flow. At this point, I am ignoring the precipitation forecasts.
All models show light precipitation breaking out Thursday morning. Snow levels will be a closely guarded secret until the last minute and will likely remain high until the end. So, more of the same…
Maps
European shows SW flow, transitioning to WSW. Here is the problem: with that setup, how can WC be missed? If I were to zoom out, you would see a miss for Crested Butte as well, which always does well with that setup. So problems…
German shows NNW flow transitioning to Westerly, which is why you see higher totals in Montezuma County into western La Plata County. Believable, but likely exaggerated.
HMMM. Classic GFS error, this is Northerly flow (notice the weak gorge event up in Ouray). But then the GFS targets the elevation of the La Platas and somehow delivers 0.30-0.50 inches of liquid in our lower elevations. Highly unlikely in a northerly flow event.
As I said, I am not even looking at the precipitation totals as a forecast, only an indicator. Most models did not make the list. Moisture should begin moving into Arizona late tomorrow, which may give us a clearer view of the forecast. We’ll see.