1/3/26 Saturday 3:30 am
It looks like my suspicions regarding the surface maps were correct, as low elevation precipitation ground to a halt yesterday morning. The biggest fail from the weather models was Wolf Creek getting 5 inches of snow out of the storm.
NNW flow kicked in as expected.
Purgatory 2 inches
Molas 4 inches
Monument (snow slide south of Ouray) 5 inches
Coal Bank 7 inches
Red Mountain 8.5 inches
DWG HQ official total was 0.51 inches of liquid. Similar totals were common in my area with slightly enhanced precipitation rates in the westerly (transitional) flow.
Temperatures will rebound over the next couple of days. Sunday and Monday, low pressure spinning off the coast of Southern California will usher in moisture to our area. On Monday, energy well to the north may combine to produce flurries to light snow mostly over the NW San Juans. At this point, I expect minimal (if any) impacts.
The next storm, the one I referred to yesterday as a “proper snowstorm,” could be arriving mid to late week. The models show this possibility as a result of a large trough flattening the ridge, moving arctic air into the region.
It’s the classic: cold air infiltration into moist air from the Pacific — the infamous “perfect storm” setup. Not necessarily huge, but very productive, high-ratio snow totals.
Sounds too good to be true? After what we have experienced this year so far? Of course, it sounds too good to be true! Is it possible? Sure, it is. It has to happen sometime…
All of the models are on board so far, which is good. So I will be cautiously optimistic. However, while the models are on board, their timing varies. The GFS is fastest, favoring late Wednesday into Thursday. The other models favor Thursday-Friday evening.
Another factor favoring the storm is the High School Athletics schedule. Just as holidays seem to attract storms, so does traveling for HS athletic events. It is all part of my “Most Inconvenient Timing Scenario”. Simply put, storms tend to occur whenever groups of people have to drive over the passes.
I will monitor the models closely to see if any diverge from the stormy solution. I will be posting daily this week, so make sure you check in daily for the latest!