1/7/26 Wednesday 5 am
I have been studying the models this morning, most show the closed low coming ashore in Northern Baja between 10 am and 2 pm today.
The system will have two components: a shortwave arriving overnight through Thursday morning, followed by a more potent trough later on Thursday.
There is a pretty good chance we will see a Winter Weather Advisory for the lower elevations before both systems depart the area. Southern mid-elevations may receive as much precipitation as the mountains, but snow ratios will offset the overall totals, especially on Thursday evening. As I have been saying, not a big storm, but an extremely efficient snow producer. The most efficient we have seen this season (for this discussion, “efficient” means making the most of little).
My initial take is 2 to 6 inches across the southern half of La Plata County. Perhaps 4 to 10 inches of snow across the mountains by late Friday. Mid-elevations will likely be between those totals. I am going to forecast the two-day totals for this event.
I will leave you with that, so I can “do what I do,” and I plan to get my initial forecast out by this afternoon.