7/16/26 Thursday 6:30 am
Experiment complete. Neither HiRes model I shared yesterday did very well. I am retiring them both until winter, and I will give them another shot then.
I can’t say they were 100% wrong. Surprisingly, there were some big bullseyes. 0.87″ off Cr 502. 0.90″ in Dolores. 0.30″ to 0.60″ around Mancos AND Cortez! Then north of Lemon in McCoy Creek, 2.16″. While Vallecito got less than 0.20.
The heavy showers are highly storm-dependent. What have I said for years about thunderstorms? Models cannot make precise predictions of the exact locations where thunderstorms will develop. They can only predict when conditions will be favorable for development.
Speaking of which, morning model consensus from overnight runs is indicating heavier showers today developing further north. Hopefully Telluride will finally get in on the action.
I will be back this afternoon to see if there are any changes to the models after the new ones come out today.