7/21/26 Tuesday 4 am
Yesterday I said that overall storm chances would be much lower on Monday. With the exception of areas south of Durango along 550 South, with a couple of bullseyes along the Colorado/New Mexico border.
Farmington did get 0.29″-0.40″ yesterday
That is about it.
Yesterday I also said that storm chances would increase on Tuesday through at least Thursday.
This is what we want to see this time of year. Here is the current radar.
Right where you see that yellow area, which is indicating a strong thunderstorm cell, they have had 1.60″ in two and a half hours.
Both the GFS and European’s latest model run, initialized well to the current radar. Both have very different solutions for the forecast. The European model has a typical late afternoon start, mostly low totals, and features heavier coverage across the forecast area, definitely favoring western areas for the heaviest total, extending later into the evening.
The GFS is predicting very high totals painted across the entire forecast area. It looks believable enough because its model bias tends to forget about the lower elevations, piling it up in the mountains. The GFS also shows showers extending overnight, with occasional short breaks before it cranks things up again late Wednesday morning.
This will be a good test for the GFS and some of the other US models under its umbrella. I have a hunch things are going to get a slower start today. If it doesn’t start up at 2 or 4 pm, be patient; we will judge this surge tomorrow morning.