8/30/26 4:30 am
That will teach me. That’s it, no more cute “Midday Quick Looks”. I learned my lesson again. Yesterday, models sent me a “scattered showers forecast and delivered “highly isolated showers” results.
There were a couple of decent accumulations south of Purgatory and NE of Vallecito. For the most part, it was unimpressive across most of the forecast area.
I think this is going to be a problem for a while; the models seem to be struggling to balance these incoming NW troughs vs. the thermal high being the goalie for on-again-off-again monsoonal flow.
I know I am struggling with the mixed signals coming from the models. Bring on winter and an active storm track!
For today, I have been given no reason to believe the scattered showers signal I am getting once again. Isolated showers are the best way to handle today’s forecast.
For tomorrow, models continue to show widespread showers beginning in the afternoon. Over the last two days, they have delayed the onset of heavy showers until much later in the day, so as of this last model run, I don’t expect overnight and morning showers like the models showed 2 days ago.
I am going to be working on that updated El Niño post I promised last week. Fingers crossed I can get it out today!