9/3/26 Thursday 4:30 am
Boring weather for Labor Day weekend is probably what a high percentage of readers are hoping. For the most part, that is what is on tap. Of course, the standard chance of high-elevation showers is almost always in the forecast this time of year.
For today, a very, very slight chance of showers developing this afternoon above 9,000 feet. Tomorrow, the chances tick up over the same higher-elevation areas. Saturday and Sunday look even more boring.
Monday and all of next week, for that matter, are dividing the models. European models show on-and-off showers, heavy in some areas, at some times. The GFS and Canadian are leaning towards a wetter week next week.
Interestingly enough, the models agree better in the long term, all showing the second half of September being wetter than the first half.
I was running the GFS and European models side by side, mostly paying attention, searching for things to drill down on. The GFS caught my eye for a number of reasons–the wetter forecast than the Euro, and widespread showers across the entire forecast area. Then there were a couple of other things…
This would be an interesting turn of events for a week from tomorrow. That little snow blob covers all of San Juan County. This forecast indicates rain changing to snow overnight next Thursday into Friday morning at or above 11,000 feet.
Then there was this the next week…
Don’t mistake my excitement and the time I am spending on this for my conviction that it will happen. I am just excited that we are getting to the time of year when this would not be unusual if it did happen.
For now, I am discounting the San Juan County snow as an anomalous run. The larger storm over the northern Rockies carries more weight with me than the random snow event closer to home. Something to watch for, for sure. Fun to think about.
It is a signal that I need to dust off the longer-term models this weekend and check out the latest runs!