09/11/26 Friday 4:30 am
It is very, very dry this morning, and it’s cool out. I got an email from someone who finally gave up and bought a window air conditioner. She theorized that because she bought it, she probably wouldn’t need it anymore.
Long-time followers know that I use similar theories when forecasting inclement weather. For example, in December/November, someone will ask about our first snowfall. My first thought is to look at the academic sports event calendars. Because it seems like our storm track correlates with when a High School sports team is scheduled to get on a bus and travel over Red Mountain Pass.
I am joking, of course; that does not dictate the forecast, but it sure seems to happen a lot. It’s a chaos-theory-meets-meteorology thing that fascinates me.
Hmm, I take a couple of days off, then my first post back, I go down that rabbit hole of overthinking within the first couple of paragraphs…
Back to the AC, she might be right, although temperature preference is very personal. Says the guy who keeps a window fan in the bathroom 12 months out of the year…
Enough. As I said, it’s dry out. Dew points in the 20s and lower, PWAT values around 30% of average. Not exactly the conditions that generate a lot of shower activity. But the models are attempting to increase the moisture beginning today, increasing tomorrow, with more of a plume of moisture moving in late Sunday into Monday. That sounds like last weekend and last Monday.
Monday showed us that even high-value moisture takes a while to reach the top-down saturation level for rain to reach the ground. Last Sunday night, despite the high dew points and PWATs, the moisture plume was so transient that it was gone before ever having a chance to get going. Most locations got <= 0.10″ inches of rain; many got half or less than that.
The modeling differs as we approach Monday and the coming week. The models are not portraying the moisture as transient; they show reinforcing moisture as we move into mid-to late next week. So we think we have that in our favor. For now, I am going to take it one or two days at a time.
For today and tomorrow, there will be a slight chance of afternoon showers favoring the northern forecast area and elevations above 8,800 feet. I am closely watching next week. Models are showing pulses of deeper moisture coming in Monday and Tuesday, with deeper plumes of subtropical moisture by midweek.
I am not going jump on the: “Monsoon Returns!” train just yet, but it does look interesting. I am definitely seeing indications that the mountains could see some light snow after the 20th. I’d love confirmation and pictures from people who see it!
My next update will be Saturday morning.