Monday 4 pm
I gave a little nudge in one of my posts the other day, saying I was concerned I wasn’t hearing enough from NWS, CDOT, or EMS in different cities in the forecast area about the upcoming event. I knew word would travel fast if I posted that.
Thankfully, they got on board this afternoon in their discussion:
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and seasonable temperatures to start the work week. - Widespread rain returns Wednesday through Friday. - The potential for flooding increases on Thursday and Friday especially for portions of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. - Rainfall amounts in the southern mountains range from 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts possible in the San Juans. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1112 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK: Broad southwesterly flow will dominate the start of the work week, maintaining moisture advection across the region. Expect a continuation of cloud cover along with isolated showers through Tuesday. Modest warm air advection will nudge high temperatures closer to seasonal normals despite the increased cloud cover. While localized breezy conditions could accompany collapsing showers, organized convection is not anticipated. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL LATE-WEEK: By Wednesday, a strong low pressure system drops southward along the California coast, while an upper level jet noses into the Four Corners region. These two features will work in tandem to bring remnant moisture from what is now Hurricane Trudy into the region, bringing the return of widespread precipitation chances. Initial model solutions depict the most likely time period for widespread showers to be Wednesday night through Thursday night. It is also important to note that a large majority of the precipitation from this system will fall as rain, with the pool of colder temperatures staying well north of the forecast area. As a result, snow levels will remain high, generally at or above 12,000 feet. Given the prospect of high-elevation rain falling onto antecedent snowpack and saturated soils from last week`s precipitation, flash flooding and hydrologic impacts will be monitored closely as the system progresses. The highest amounts of rainfall are currently showing up in the southern mountains where 1-3 inches of rainfall are possible. The San Juans look to take the brunt from this system so locally higher amounts are possible. In fact, some of the river forecasts in that area are reaching flood stage. Ensemble guidance supports PWATs upwards of 250-300% of normal, providing another strong signal to monitor for potential impacts. Keep in mind that the forecast remains fluid this far out, and key details may shift over the coming days. Stay tuned for updates. Precipitation chances continue into Friday afternoon, though coverage will gradually taper off. Meanwhile, the low pressure system will be absorbed into the main flow, driving a frontal passage through the area. This will bring cooler temperatures on Friday, dropping highs by 5 to 10 degrees compared to Thursday and potentially taking overnight temperatures back below freezing.
Then I saw this; I couldn’t be happier about their engagement on this matter! And this GREAT news from LPCG!
MORE BIG RAIN IS FORECASTED! The National Weather Service is predicting heavy rains in the region over the next several days. La Plata County has sandbags available at no charge for county residents to assist property owners in protecting their property from potential flood damage in low-lying and flood-prone areas. The sand and sandbags are available at the listed locations below and are on a self-serve basis; shovels may be provided, but residents are advised to bring their own in case none are available. Sand and bags are available 24 hours a day at: •La Plata County Fairgrounds and Event Center (north lot near the rodeo arena), 2500 Main Ave., Durango •Upper Pine River Fire Protection Station 1, 75 South Clover Dr., Bayfield AND Upper Pine Fire Protection District Station 4, 80 W Vallecito Creek Rd., Bayfield •Los Pinos Fire District Station 1, 275 Browning Ave, Ignacio, CO 81137 •Fort Lewis Mesa Fire Department Station 1, 164 County Road 130, Hesperus, CO 81326 Rainfall could cause mudslides and loosen other large objects and debris throughout the region, and drivers should be aware of these potential road hazards. To report road damage, please call
(970) 382-6413
or fill out a road repair request form on the La Plata County website at: https://www.co.laplata.co.us/departments/road_and_bridge/repair_request_form.php Sign up for LPC Alerts to get emergency alerts that may affect you at: www.lpcgov.org/LPCAlerts