First an update on the advisories then my take. The NWS is going to be terminating the low elevation advisory at 9 am this morning and at the moment the higher elevation advisory will continue until 11 pm.
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
557 AM MST WED DEC 25 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING…
* WHAT…PERIODS OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO,
BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
557 AM MST WED DEC 25 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS
MORNING…
* WHAT…PERIODS OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO
2 INCHES.
* WHERE…FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN
AND ANIMAS RIVER BASIN.
The flow should change over in most areas through the day and Telluride will be in a more favorable setup
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-191226T0600Z/
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIO BLANCO, CRESTED BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK,
MARBLE, BUFORD, TRAPPERS LAKE, RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE,
OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
557 AM MST WED DEC 25 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING…
* WHAT…PERIODS OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
* WHERE…PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST, SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO.
I tend to give up too early on storms that don’t go according to plan and weather models that got us there. Looking at the surface map data since my last update it appears the system weakened dramatically into a small shortwave trough as the strongest portion of the jet dropped out of position.
I would expect light snow on and off at lower and middle elevations. Out west we didn’t yet hit the model expectations but there is still a chance we could see things pick up again later this afternoon in all areas towards sunset. The accumulations I have been using in my updates are through Thursday. It is still snowing in many areas and it is early yet. If I see anything interesting in the morning model runs that changes my take on this storm I will post.
I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday spending time doing something you love with ones you love!
Looks like 6-8 inches in Forest Lakes this morning. Merry Christmas