4/26/24 Friday 11 am

The low-pressure system and associated cold front are inching closer. Moisture should be on the increase by this afternoon. By this evening heavy rain and snow showers will move into the area. Widespread showers and snow showers will stick around in the morning. Showers should develop later in the day and linger on and off on Sunday.

Here is the latest radar. Notice that very heavy rain extending from St George, Utah all of the way back into SE California. That will move into the area tonight.

 

The worst time to travel over the passes will be between 9 pm tonight and 11 am tomorrow morning.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued above 9,000 feet for the 550 passes and over to Telluride. The NWS is calling for 6 to 12 inches of snow (before melting) by Monday morning. The latest models show Red Mountain Pass and Wolf Creek Pass may see more than that, call it 12 to 18 inches.

This will be a great boost of precipitation for most areas. Here are some of the latest model runs showing the total liquid precipitation through Monday morning.

Canadian

GFS

European

For my money, I trust the high-resolution NBM model in this circumstance for the most likely totals.

NBM liquid total

NBM snow total before melting

For clarification, this model shows 17 inches of snow for Red Mountain Pass, 6.5 for Telluride, and 14 inches for Wolf Creek.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question

4/25/24 Thursday 12:30 pm

It still looks like the best chance for meaningful precipitation is on the way. I know there is no shortage of events going on tonight through Sunday, but we are hearty people here in SW Colorado and can handle it!

For today, the models show that daytime heating may combine with the approaching trough of low pressure and its associated cold front, resulting in showers developing. They will be hit-and-miss in the lower elevations and should dissipate this evening.

Tomorrow will be slightly cooler and should give way to isolated showers again in the afternoon, however, rather than dissipate in the evening, heavy showers may develop between 6 and 9 pm. I will update the timing tomorrow morning, but at the moment, that is my best guess.

Overnight showers should continue Friday night into Saturday. Heavy snow will fall above 9,000 feet. Showers will be possible at least until mid to late afternoon on Saturday it will be cold and wet, plan accordingly.

As you may know, I was at one time close with the organizers of Durango Wine Experience and I have attended the events for many years. I won’t be able to attend this year, but they do a great job with Saturday’s Grand Tasting, you should stay plenty dry while in the main tasting tents. I have been there over the years in all kinds of weather, don’t let the weather change your plans!

Tomorrow morning I will update you on rain and snow amounts.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question

4/24/24 Wednesday 10:30 am

I will be able to post tomorrow morning and will provide more details then. But it looks like we could get some decent precipitation late week and through the weekend.

Don’t be surprised to see high elevation snow advisories.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question

4/20/24 Saturday 7:45 am

We may see a couple of high-elevation snow showers with light showers across the lower and mid-elevations. Or not. The models show it happening but accumulations are so low I question how much precipitation can make it to the ground in all but the highest locations. The models show the precip developing after 11 am, we will see.

Then what?? Models agree that beginning tomorrow it should warm up and our famous seasonal winds will return. From this point on the models disagree. The GFS tries to introduce afternoon showers beginning on Tuesday. The other models wait until the end of the week.

There is slightly better agreement for NEXT weekend. Models show a pattern change with a storm track setting up over SW Colorado. I am not going to hold my breath. Why is it always NEXT weekend?

I have heard from several people who have “summerized” their winter equipment. I am strongly considering doing that as well. That may be the key to getting one more large winter storm in the area.

I have also had people reach out and ask where I have been, and asking if I am losing an interest in the weather. Neither could be farther from the truth, but I have been posting less than I used to during these boring stretches, and I should let followers know why.

For the first time in my life, I have had to become a full-time round-the-clock caretaker of another. It occupies a lot of time and is a very reactionary responsibility that makes it virtually impossible to plan well. It is also my number one responsibility rarely does a single day go as planned.

The only reason I share this (and I was intentionally vague with the details) is that many people depend on my guidance when the weather affects people’s lives, and I have no plans to stop providing that service.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question

4/15/24 Monday 7:30 am

A bit of energy is going to race through our area later today. It will be the trigger to ignite severe storms in the midwest later today and tomorrow. The system will encounter warm moist air and convection will explode across the plain states.

We have been fooled by these types before. The system knows where it wants to go and will spend very little time in our vicinity before it jumps over us and heads into Kansas and Nebraska. If I lived in Kansas and Nebraska I would already be heading out to get into place for afternoon storm chasing.

Here is the affected area today:

Here is Tuesday:

The GFS model is a little too ambitious in our area with the high-elevation snow accumulations (in my opinion). I anticipate light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches by tomorrow with a dusting in the mid-elevation areas and possibly the low elevations.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question

4/13/24 Saturday 7:15 am

There has not been a lot to talk about this week. I expected gradual warming with a return to spring-like conditions by late in the week. I mentioned a chance of a storm this weekend.  That now looks like a weak high-elevation precipitation event for this Monday/Tuesday.

Totals from this event have been trending down, I would not be surprised if little to no precipitation makes it to the ground in the lower and mid-elevation areas.

After that, boring weather returns. There is a chance we could see some light April showers by next weekend, but that is what I thought last weekend. We will see…

Welcome to shoulder season.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question

4/7/24 Sunday 9:40 am

When I woke up yesterday, I thought we had just another disappointing storm coming in on the low end of expectations. By late morning the leftovers showed up and they were formidable.  At least, for those of us west of Durango. Snow squalls developed as the colder air moved across the area—periods of heavy snow from Dolores to Dwest and Lightner Creek. The snow fired back up in the higher elevations as well, delivering a few more inches to the overnight totals.

At the end of the day, the models did a pretty-good on the accumulations. I stuck with the lower amounts and they were all within range of verifying.

I don’t need snow reports, however, I am curious how far east the snow squalls occurred. I was driving home from shopping. I was on 160 heading west, as I left the Durango city limits I could see the squalls just as I passed Lightner Creek. By 1 pm the temperature at DwII was down to 29 degrees with snow, blowing snow and high winds. Squalls would blow through, then the sun would come out and start melting everything. This happened until late in the afternoon.  If this storm had occurred in February we would have had considerably higher totals.

Monday will be the coolest day of the week, with a good chance of snow showers in the higher elevations. There will be a chance of rain in the lower elevations and mixed precipitation in the mid-elevations.

Spring returns By Wednesday and temperatures will warm up and things will dry out. The next chance of a storm will be, you guessed it, next weekend!

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question

4/5/24 Friday 3:40 pm

Spring=Wind. Wind season is here, I know it is not everyone’s favorite but it is seasonal in SW Colorado for the next few months.

Not surprisingly, the storm has slowed down, delaying precipitation onset until later this evening and tonight. The good news is with that late arrival, we may see a couple of inches of accumulating snow down to 6,500 by Saturday morning.

There are a few Winter Weather Advisories that begin at 6 pm and last 24 hours. I am not bullish on the higher amounts.

The Purgatory area should be able to accumulate 5 to 9 inches by tomorrow afternoon. The 550 passes could pick up slightly more. Telluride should be in the 5 to 9 range as well. Wolf Creek should end up with 8 to 12 inches all said and done.

Up to 2 inches of snow before melting could fall at or above 6,500 feet. 2 to 4 inches below 7,800 with 3 to 5 inches above 7,800 feet.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question

4/4/24 Thursday 11:40 am

Over the next 24 hours, the next development will be the opportunity for high winds. This is in advance of what looks like a much better organized storm system which will take aim on the forecast area Friday evening and Saturday.

This is not going to be a big system, nonetheless, it could deliver 5 to 10 inches of snow in the higher elevations. Based on the timing, I would not rule out some early morning snow at or above 6,500 early Saturday morning.

Do not be surprised to see some “dust-snow” in the higher elevations as this southwest system ramps up on Friday. Also, people sensitive to dust in the air may want to stay indoors on Friday afternoon.

I have been getting a surprising number of emails regarding the weather for the eclipse next week Monday. When the total eclipse occurred last year in SW Colorado, I did not get nearly as many emails. I assume it is because the state with the second-highest number of my followers is Texas.

Unfortunately, I cannot accurately forecast the conditions at this time. It looks like showers will develop along the SE Coast of Texas in the morning and spread northwest, towards the path of totality. The models do not show rain, but at least one model shows 100% cloud cover. We will see, I will keep an eye on it. Thunderstorms in April in Texas are very difficult to forecast against.

My next update will be Friday afternoon.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question

3/31/24 Sunday 12:30 pm

The only news in the last 6 hours or so, is confirmation that the models continue to be too quick in introducing heavier precipitation into the area. Light snow has been very slow getting underway.

As of noon, snow had not started falling at Wolf Creek yet. A quick peek outside shows some very light mystery precipitation starting to fall with a temperature of 42 degrees.

As far as the forecast goes, I won’t be changing anything, however, I have a couple of quick observations:

The GFS and Canadian models currently show two to three times more precipitation than the European.

If the heaviest precipitation arrives much later (like after dark) amounts could be higher than the models are suggesting.

The GFS and Canadian continue to show snow returning to the mountains by late tomorrow morning/afternoon and continuing through Monday evening, this presents a couple of issues.

There is an existing Winter Weather Advisory above 9,000 feet. It started at 6 am this morning and ends at 6 am Monday. This may need to be adjusted/extended because it was based on bad model timing. At this rate, 8 or 9 (or more) hours of the stale advisory have already been wasted because of bad data.

I could also make a case for the energy with this low pressure mostly dropping too far south into New Mexico which may make even the European precipitation forecasts too high.

Other than that, everything looks great… It looks like we could see a couple of more storms over the next 10 days or so. I expect more after that before the end of April. Hopefully, we can finish big with a massive storm that gives forecasters a better chance of predictability.

Thanks for following and supporting the site!

Click here to donate 

If you prefer to donate with Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

Click here to submit a weather report or question