5/26/23 Friday 7:20 am

Very little changes to the short term. For most of us, it will be dry, windy, and warm. As is usually the case, a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the higher elevations during the next few afternoons.

This pattern will continue through Tuesday. Models are starting to pick up on a pattern change around  Wednesday. They are showing cooler, wetter weather returning through Sunday or Monday, June 5th.

Extended models are showing mixed results for the rest of June. The GFS and Canadian models are forecasting well above-average precipitation anomalies. The European model is predictably leaning towards its dry bias showing average precipitation.

Here are the extended forecast precipitation anomalies for the next 30 or so days (depending on the model). The amounts shown are the total deviation from normal.

European through June 25th

GFS through June 28th.

Canadian through June 25th

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5/25/23 Thursday 6:45 am

As expected, much drier air has worked into the forecast area. Yesterday this resulted in very limited thunderstorm development. Today, storms will be even more isolated, once again firing over the higher terrain.

With the warmer temperatures, we will see an increase in winds across the forecast area. Fortunately, fuels are not critical, so there should not be any concerns about fires in the short term.

Enjoy the warmer drier weather (if you are into that sort of thing), tomorrow I will review the extended models’ forecasts.

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5/24/23 Wednesday 6:20 am

SW flow will begin to usher in some drier air across the forecast area. However, residual moisture and saturated soils will contribute to scattered showers once again today.

On Thursday and Friday, temperatures will begin to moderate somewhat as drier air continues to pour into the region. Showers will be more isolated in nature. By this weekend, showers will be less likely. Overall, it should be a good holiday weekend for those wanting to spend some time outdoors.

Models are mixed at the moment on how long this drier pattern will persist. But it could be several days. Historically, June is our driest month of the year. What will be interesting is to see if the last half of the month ends up wetter than the first half of the month, as has happened so many times over the last year.

As we finish up on our “Maysoon” I expect this ridge to amplify and bring an early warm start to summer. I am on record as saying that I expect us to transition into another above-average Monsoon season, which could start slightly later than last year.

Last year, I was never able to commit to a long-term winter forecast. That won’t be the case this year, I am already leaning towards a repeat of the 2009-2010 winter for next year. That would bring below-average temperatures and above-average snowfall for the entire forecast area. For mid and higher elevations, that would result in slightly less snow than last year but still above average. For lower elevations (below 6,600) that would mean more snow than last year.

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Thanks to everyone who responded, I hired someone and they are already at work. Should have hot water in a couple of hours!

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I need a new hot water heater. I was pretty surprised by my first high quote from a relatively new, tremendously successful, based initially out of ABQ firm that has set up shop in DGO. It seemed very high, which I did not expect. I have reached out to a number of folks to get a referral. I don’t have that warm and fuzzy feeling yet. I don’t want a discount, I want a reasonable replacement cost, not to be taken advantage of. I also don’t want the “I know a guy” type, went thru that.

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5/20/23 Saturday 7:15 am

Deep moisture remains pooled over the forecast area. Showers will redevelop today, the timing is a challenge and will likely be related to how quickly (if at all) the clouds disperse. This would allow the sun to work its magic and speed up afternoon convection, In other words, the quicker we see the sun, the quicker it will trigger thunderstorms. If it stays cloudy, it will delay thunderstorm development.

Hydrological concerns will be largely tied to storm development. Overall, the threat is less than expected because cooler temperatures have slowed the melt of the snowpack. Common sense will be your best forecast tool, if heavy rain sets up over a flood-prone area stay cautious.

This pattern is here to stay through Tuesday. Wednesday looks like it will be a transitional day with spotty storms favoring the higher-elevation areas. For now, it still appears it is going to dry out for much of the forecast area next weekend.

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5/19/23 Friday 3:45 pm

As expected widespread showers and thunderstorms spread throughout the forecast area this afternoon. Unlike the last couple of days, we may be just getting started. Anomalously high moisture is in the process of streaming into the forecast area. This could lead to overnight showers and thunderstorms.

Here is the forecast for anomalous PWAT (precipitable water values) between 4 pm today and 6 am tomorrow. Values will range from 200% to 300% of normal for this time of year. PWAT is simply the amount of liquid that would fall over an area if the entire column of moisture is emptied.

Hydrologically nothing has changed since this morning so please refer to this morning’s update for those flood watches.

My next update will be Saturday morning.

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5/19/23 Friday 7 am

A couple of areas of low pressure are going to enhance storm coverage this weekend. The heaviest showers should fall later today and Saturday. Potentially heavy showers will redevelop Sunday. Lingering moisture will keep afternoon showers firing through at least Tuesday.

There are some existing hydrological concerns, they may be worse than anticipated depending on where the heaviest bands of rain set up.

It has been a couple of years since we had to deal with this, I forgot the hydro updates come out with the afternoon forecast package. These were issued yesterday afternoon.

 

COC067-200030-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FL.Y.0011.230518T2116Z-230522T0000Z/
/LPHC2.N.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
316 PM MDT Thu May 18 2023

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is expected.

* WHERE...La Plata River at Hesperus.

* WHEN...From this afternoon to Sunday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:30 PM MDT Thursday the stage was 4.9 feet.

  - Forecast...The river will oscillate around flood stage with a
    maximum value of 5.5 feet Saturday morning.

  - Action stage is 5.0 feet.

  - Flood stage is 5.5 feet.

  - Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood


&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (3 pm MDT)
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun

La Plata River
Hesperus      5.5   4.9   Thu 1 pm MDT 5.0   5.1   4.9


&&

COC083-192145-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FL.Y.0012.230518T2131Z-000000T0000Z/
/MNRC2.N.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
331 PM MDT Thu May 18 2023

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is expected.

* WHERE...Mancos River near Mancos.

* WHEN...From this afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, lowland flooding downstream Mancos is
  expected, potentially inundating adjacent fields and county road
  crossings.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:45 PM MDT Thursday the stage was 5.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to oscillate between
    bankfull and flood stage through the weekend, dropping below
    5.0 feet next week.

  - Action stage is 5.0 feet.

  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.

COC007-192115-
/O.EXT.KGJT.FL.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-230521T0600Z/
/PSPC2.N.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
311 PM MDT Thu May 18 2023

...FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is expected.

* WHERE...San Juan River at Pagosa Springs.

* WHEN...Until early Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 10.3 feet, water is expected to flow into residential
  yards in the San Juan River Village, northeast of Pagosa Springs.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:00 PM MDT Thursday the stage was 8.7 feet.


  - Forecast...The river will crest around 9.1 feet just after
    midnight tonight, and then drop to roughly 8.6 feet by early
    tomorrow afternoon. Then, water levels are expected to rise
    back up, peaking around 10.2 feet Saturday morning. It will
    then fall again and oscillate below bankfull through next
    week.

  - Action stage is 9.5 feet.

  - Flood stage is 10.5 feet.

  - Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood


&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (12 pm MDT)
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun

San Juan River
Pagosa Spring 10.5  8.7   Thu 1 pm MDT 8.6  10.2   9.0

For now, nothing has been issued for the Animas. That could change very quickly depending on where the heaviest rains fall. Regardless, the river is forecast to peak within the next week.  and it should oscillate between a gauge height of 7 to 8 feet and 7,700 to 10,500 (cfs). This could result in some minor flooding in low-lying areas mainly north of town.

My next update will be this afternoon around 4 pm.

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5/18/23 Thursday 7 am

Showers developed as expected yesterday, the same thing should happen today. The one exception is that the showers should be more widespread today and tomorrow. Locations that have been missed have a better chance of getting in on the action. This trend should continue through the weekend. Showers will become slightly more scattered to begin next week.

Here are the latest precipitation totals from now through Tuesday evening.

Euro

Canadian

German

No promises, but some of the models are showing drier weather returning to lower and mid elevations for Memorial Day Weekend. This could change between now and then, but it is something to keep an eye on!

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5/17/23 Wednesday 7:30 am

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms every afternoon for the foreseeable future. This afternoon will be similar to the last couple of afternoons. Showers will pop up, especially over the higher terrain and mid-elevation areas. Tomorrow and Friday coverage will pick up, by Friday, and throughout the weekend chances increase for the entire forecast area (including the lower elevation areas). Accumulations will be significantly above normal for May.

Looking back over the years, there does not seem to be any correlation between a wet May and a wet or dry summer in our area.

Here are the precipitation forecasts for the next week. The models are not very consistent.

GFS

NOAA NBM

Canadian

European

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