3/30/23 Thursday 8 am

There are a couple of Winter Weather Advisories in place. Plus a “bonus” Wind Advisory in the lower and mid-elevations. I think the Winter Weather Advisories are a bit overdone. This is one of the first storms this season that I thought was being over-forecasted by the NWS. Precipitation should move into the higher elevations from west to east around noon. Then slowly sag south this afternoon.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
331 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

COZ018-019-302115-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0026.230330T1500Z-230331T1800Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Silverton, and Rico
331 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 9000 feet. Total snow accumulations
  of 5 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting
  as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to noon MDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Widespread blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Strong winds could
  cause tree damage. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below
  zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30
  minutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
409 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

COZ060-066-068-301815-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0019.230330T1800Z-230331T1800Z/
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
409 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
NOON MDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. 8 to 12 inches expected in the San Juans.
  4 to 8 inches expected n the central mtns. Winds gusting as
  high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 feet and the La
  Garita Mountains and Eastern San Juan Mountains above 10000
  feet.

* WHEN...From noon today to noon MDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Widespread blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility.  The cold wind chills as
  low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in
  as little as 30 minutes.

The Wind Advisory parameters also apply to the higher elevations but they’ve covered that in the Winter Weather Advisory.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
332 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

COZ007-008-011-020>023-310000-
/O.CON.KGJT.WI.Y.0006.230330T1500Z-230331T0000Z/
Debeque to Silt Corridor-Central Colorado River Basin-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-
Including the cities of De Beque, New Castle, Mesa, Parachute,
Rifle, Silt, Eagle, Edwards, Glenwood Springs, Carbondale,
Montrose, Hotchkiss, Delta, Gateway, Nucla, Cortez, Dove Creek,
Mancos, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs
332 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Debeque to Silt Corridor, Central Colorado River
  Basin, Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin, Paradox
  Valley/Lower Dolores River, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River,
  Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down.

As far as the snow goes, I see Wolf Creek in more of a 6 to 10-inch range. With 4 to 8 inches for Purgatory and Telluride. Telluride will see more snow as the storm is departing the area. Silverton will end up in the 3 to 6-inch range. 2 to 4 inches will be common between 7,800 and 8,300 feet. Between 7,300 and 7,800 I expect 1 to 3 inches. Up to an inch will be possible below 7,300 feet.

This storm looks to me like it will be eager to depart our area and cause some mayhem in the northern plains. Don’t worry, another storm will be on the way to start next week!

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3/28/23 Tuesday 7:30 am

Yet another cold night with low to mid-teens in the lower elevations. Silverton, depending on where you look is between -17 and -20 this morning! Most other mountain locations are 0 to 4 degrees.

Speaking of temperatures, they will moderate a bit today, with highs ranging from 10 to 15 degrees below average. Things will really heat up tomorrow with highs ranging from 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year, woohoo!

Models are still a bit apart on what to expect for the Thursday-Friday storm this week. They are leaning towards advisory-level (6-12 inches) snow in the higher elevations. With lesser amounts in the mid-elevations and a messy mix in the lower elevations. I will talk more about that storm on Wednesday.

Extended Outlook

For the most part, this trend of below-average temperatures will continue for the foreseeable future.

Long-term patterns are difficult to break out of. I say this when we go through dry periods, and I say this when we have we go through wet periods. This situation will be no different and I believe this prolonged period of cold wet weather will impact our weather through the summer. It is too early for me to put forth any data-driven forecast or refer to any modeling regarding the monsoon season but my instincts tell me an above-average monsoon season is on the way.

Extended temperature forecast.

Here are the forecast anomalies for temperatures. These numbers represent the departures from the average over the period.

European extended model temperature anomalies now through 4/27/23

European extended model temperature anomalies now through May 11th.

I am not going to post a week-by-week breakdown, but the moderation starts in about a month. I looked at two other extended models and they both show below-average temperatures through April.

Extended Temperature Forecast

March, April, May, and June are historically our driest months of the year. June is usually always our driest month, followed by May. March and April have battled since records have been kept for 3rd or 4th driest month of the year. So that is something to keep in mind when looking at this 4 to 6-week precipitation forecast. When you are dealing with some of the driest months of the year the margin for error is far greater.

European extended model precipitation forecast anomalies now through April 27th.

Keep in mind, that this model tends to bias warm and dry in its forecasts. The extended American and Canadian models are only 35 and 32-day models. As I said they agree on the below-average temperatures. But the American GFS and CFS models both show above-average precipitation over the next month. As I said the margin for error is huge during the driest months.

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3/26/23 Sunday 8:15 am

Snow showers will develop (again) later today. The main impacts will be in the higher elevation areas. Friday’s round of snow showers proved to be slightly more impactful in the mid-elevations than I expected, so I can’t rule out that happening again. I think 3-5 inches are a good bet for the higher elevations by the time the snow ends on Monday.

Then something is going to happen that I have not talked about in a while, a warm-up. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will approach slightly below to near normal readings for this time of year. Unfortunately, with the other thing that goes along with that is an increase in the pressure gradient. That means it is going to get windy. It happens every year, I know no one likes it, but it is just part of living here.

The winds will subside as the next storm system rolls in late Thursday/Friday. The models are still not in great agreement regarding totals. It may be a couple of days before that happens. At the moment it looks like we get another short break over the weekend, then there is a good chance we will get a couple of more storms next week.

One of the questions I get asked a lot these days is when is all of this going to end, when is spring going to get here and stay? It may feel like spring Tuesday and Wednesday but winter will return after that. If you are wondering the same thing, I am going to do a more detailed long-term outlook on Tuesday when I get the new extended model runs so tune in for that.

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3/24/23 Friday 7:30 am

I see that 550 is closed, my understanding was that Coal Bank and Molas were open but are now closed again. Red Mountain and Wolf Creek remain closed. I have nothing official yet, but rumor has it Wolf Creek will open around 9 am. Stay tuned to the CDOT website for more information. Crews are working on Lizard Head so you may encounter delays during spot removals.

For today, expect snow showers to develop in the higher elevations by noon. A weak wave will approach from the west and snow showers will spread south across the forecast area mid to late afternoon. Some showers may become heavy due to convection, thundersnow can’t be ruled out. Overall, the system will be a quick mover so I do not expect significant accumulation. Isolated amounts of 3 to 6 inches of snow are possible at higher elevations. Lesser amounts will fall across the rest of the forecast area.

Snow showers return on Sunday after a little break on Saturday. It does look like another storm will come on from California in the middle of next week. At this time, the models are not in agreement regarding how impactful it will be. The Canadian model already is signaling that it will be a big deal, the European is showing just a small storm, and the GFS is in between the two. We’ll see.

 Awesome Snow Pack Update

From left to right is location; elevation; current Snow-Water Equivalent in liquid inches; the normal average for this date in liquid inches; the normal average for the entire season for this particular location in liquid inches; the date that this location achieves its seasonal average. The last two columns on the right are the percentage of the average for the current date and the percentage of the seasonal peak average for the entire season.

So, for example, from this table you can derive the following:

At the Vallecito Snotel site @ 10,782′ elevation, it is showing 25.8 liquid inches of precipitation. Normally on this date, the site has 13.6 liquid inches, which is a 190% of the average for March 24th. While the seasonal peak average is 174%.

On the bottom, it shows the average percentage of all locations in these basins for this day is 181% and 153% for the seasonal peak.

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3/23/23 Thursday 9:30 am

Snow showers will redevelop in the higher elevations this afternoon. Tomorrow a weak storm will move through the forecast area. The highest totals will favor the far northern portions of the forecast. More storms are possible on Sunday and the middle of next week but the models are in poor agreement at the moment.

The storm left impressive totals in its wake. Coal Bank received 57 inches of snow. Wolf Creek received 53 inches. 41 inches piled up at Purgatory. Molas measured 44 inches. Many mid-elevation areas throughout the southern and central portions of the forecast area received 20-30 inches (before melting). Silverton got 22 inches.  24 inches fell on Red Mountain and Telluride got 16.

Here were my original forecasts, they were through tomorrow, so once again I under forecasted the event.

Telluride:  14 to 20 inches

Areas between 8,000 feet and 8,600 feet in La Plata, Montezuma, Dolores, and Archuleta Counties:  14 to 24 inches.

Silverton:  22 to 28 inches

Purgatory:  32 to 40 inches

Wolf Creek:  45 to 58 inches

Here is the latest from CDOT. Please monitor their website for openings. Openings are not usually scheduled for a particular time.

SW Colorado Road Report from CDOT

CO 145 Lizard Head Pass — Expect intermittent spot closures. Crews are performing mitigation and snow removal operations throughout the day.

US 550 Coal Bank/Molas/Red Mountain Passes — All three passes remain closed. Crews are performing mitigation and snow removal operations throughout the day. No estimated time of opening.

US 160 Wolf Creek Pass — The pass remains closed. Crews are performing mitigation and snow removal operations today on the west side of the pass. No estimated time of opening. **Skier traffic is allowed on the east side of the pass between the ski area and Southfork. However, skies should be aware that intermittent spot closures may occur periodically when crews are performing snow removal to keep that side of the pass open. No commercial big rigs are allowed to travel past the South Fork gate.**

CO 17 Cumbres/La Manga Passes — The passes remain closed. Crews will perform mitigation and snow removal operations this afternoon. No estimated time of opening.

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3/22/23 Wednesday 1:40 pm

CO 145 Lizard Head Pass

Open as of 11:45 a.m. Patrols report that road and weather conditions are less than desirable. Postpone travel if possible. Travelers should be aware that the pass may close tomorrow if mitigation is necessary. Also, expect intermittent spot closures when crews are performing snow removal and need to move oversized equipment.

US 550 Coal Bank/Molas/Red Mountain Passes

All three passes remain closed through the night, from Purgatory to Ouray. No estimated time of opening. Crews will perform mitigation tomorrow morning.

US 160 Wolf Creek Pass

The pass remains closed through the night. Crews will perform mitigation tomorrow morning. Wolf Creek Ski area closed at 1 pm due to adverse conditions.

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3/22/23 Wednesday 6:30 am

US 160 Wolf Creek pass was closed at 9:30 pm for safety concerns, from Pagosa Springs to South Fork (MP 144-184).  A “soft” closure was implemented on the west side of the town of Pagosa to alert travelers to seek shelter in the town, rather than have to turn around at Treasure Falls, 15 miles away.

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3/22/23 Wednesday 2:40 am

I am not sure exactly what time it happened, but Wolf Creek was closed earlier than scheduled. Once again, it was closed at Pagosa Springs through South Fork. Crews are scheduled to begin work at 6 am. 550 was closed just after 5 pm yesterday and remains closed. Lizard Head is currently undergoing spot closures.

Temperatures have warmed slightly overnight. The main energy remains far to our west with double-barrelled closed low-pressure systems. One of the closed lows is over Reno, Nevada, the other is developing over near San Francisco.

The surface map at midnight.

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3/21/23 Tuesday 1 pm

Heavy snow is moving into the forecast area and it is going to get much, much worse. So they are going to close the passes. 550 is scheduled to close from Purgatory to Ouray at 5 pm. No word on Lizard Head yet.

Wolf Creek is scheduled to close at 6 am Wednesday, but I expect it to close earlier. Snowfall rates beginning later this afternoon will ramp up to 2 to 4 inches per hour there and the winds are going to continue to pick up. Thundersnow and lightning are very strong possibilities.

― Southwest Colorado Travel Alert ―
US 550 between Purgatory and Ouray is set to close this evening due to adverse weather conditions.

Travelers should expect closures on multiple mountain passes across the region for the remainder of the week.

US 550 between Purgatory and Ouray will close at 5:00 p.m. tonight (03/21/23) due to dangerous driving conditions.

Southwest & South-Central Colorado— With heavy snow accumulation and high-wind gusts forecasted throughout the San Juan Mountain Range, the Colorado Department of Transportation warns travelers of closures set to occur on multiple mountain passes for the remainder of the week. Motorists are encouraged to frequently visit COtrip.org for the latest information on road closures and conditions prior to traveling.

Additional maintenance work and safety closures may be implemented this week on many southwest & south-central Colorado highways as crews perform winter maintenance operations and avalanche mitigation. 

US 550 Mountain Corridor north of Durango

CDOT will implement a safety closure this evening for US Highway 550 north of Purgatory ski area to Ouray, due to adverse weather conditions and high avalanche danger forecasted through Thursday. The highway is set to close at 5:00 p.m. on Tues., March 21 with no estimated time or day of reopening. The closure includes all three mountain passes – Coal Bank, Molas, and Red Mountain. The corridor will likely remain closed for the duration of the storm system which is necessary to ensure the safety of motorists. 

Northbound travelers will encounter a closed gate just north of Purgatory, near Cascade Creek (MP 52). Southbound travelers will encounter a closed gate at Ouray (MP 92). Do not attempt to bypass the closed gates. Crews will work as quickly and safely as possible to perform winter maintenance operations for the remainder of the week.

US 160 Wolf Creek Pass east of Pagosa Springs

US 160 Wolf Creek Pass will close tomorrow morning (Wed., Mar. 22) at 6 a.m. so that crews can perform winter maintenance operations. Maintenance operations will last for much of the morning, but the exact time of reopening the highway is not known.

Westbound traffic will be stopped just west of the ski area at the pass summit (MP 167) and eastbound traffic will be stopped near Treasure Falls (MP 157). Do not attempt to bypass the closed gates. Maintenance operations will last for much of the morning, but the exact time of reopening the highway is not known.

No word on Lizard Head just yet…

Accompanying the announcement was a model run from the high-resolution NDFD model that is going off the rails. According to the release, this is what the NWS is expecting for additional snowfall. While it would not surprise me, I have to say that other models are not showing totals this high, but I figured since this is the official word coming from CDOT and NWS I better include it in my post.

Here is the caption under the graphic from the original press release.

“The National Weather Service predicts 4 feet of new snow accumulation over parts of the US 550 Mountain Corridor and approximately 6 feet near US 160 Wolf Creek Pass by late Thursday.” 

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3/21/23 Tuesday 10:20 am

Wolf Creek reopened a short time ago. As I mentioned earlier, heavier precipitation is going to develop from west to east across the forecast area today. This is already happening in the western portions of the forecast area. It will spread east over the next couple of hours and impact the passes by this afternoon.

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