3/2/23 Monday 3:30 pm

I gotta admit, I was about ready to throw in the towel a few hours ago. Fortunately, widespread showers have occurred or are occurring throughout the forecast area. It feels like a nice fall day.

Temps are falling with most mountain areas in the 30s and 40s, with mid-elevations in 40s and 50s, and lower elevations in the 50s. There is a weather station close to Red Mountain at 11,200 feet currently reporting 34 degrees at 3 pm.

If we can believe them, the models show showers increasing this evening and tonight. By midnight, snow levels could drop below 10,000 feet. Assuming there is still precipitation falling at 6am, snow levels could fall to or just below 9,000 feet.

It looks like typical dry October weather will move back in by Wednesday, so enjoy the change while it is here.

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10/2/23 Monday 7:15 am

When I mentioned that Monday through Tuesday would be the best chance of widespread showers, I didn’t expect the models to be so wrong about Saturday and Sunday.

That is one of the reasons I look at models’ precipitation forecasts as precipitation events. I post the potential totals over the period of uncertain weather. A lot of times the models are “right for the wrong reasons” as I like to say.

I am hoping that will be the case over the next 36 hours. Here is what the most recent Euro shows for total liquid precipitation between now and Tuesday at noon.

The Euro has been overdoing the precipitation for days, or has it? We will find out soon. I have an appointment this morning, but this afternoon I will do a snow update. It looks like the snow levels will drop a little lower than I expected.

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9/30/23 Saturday 9:20 am

Yesterday, I mentioned that I felt it would take longer to saturate the air today than the models were suggesting. This appears to be the case, and it should delay shower development until later today.

As is always the case the higher elevation locations will see showers first. Rain should expand in coverage as we approach late afternoon and into this evening. It looks like scattered showers will develop again tomorrow, but the most active day according to the most recent model runs will be Monday as a cold front approaches.

Some of the coldest air of the season so far will arrive late Monday. This could drive snow levels down to 9,000 feet late Monday night and Tuesday morning. I will be watching this closely.

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9/29/23 Friday 7:20 am

Cooler and wetter conditions are on the way for the forecast area. I have been riding the Euro horse in this race for quite some time. Models struggle during the fall more than any other season. I have learned to go with consistency, the European model has been very consistent for nearly the last week showing this change.

Before we look at the maps, I want say that I do not have a lot of confidence on when the precipitation will start on Saturday, especially in the lower elevations across the southern portions of the forecast area (Durango, Ignacio, Bayfield). It is going to be a coin toss as to whether the rain starts early, as the models suggest, or if it takes longer to saturate the atmosphere. My guess is later, but we will see.

Here are the maps in motion, with the latest European model run. The maps start at 6 am on Saturday and end on Wednesday at 6 am. Green is rain, blue is snow. The darker the shade, the heavier the precipitation.

Here is the event-total liquid precipitation potential.

With rain events, I think it is important to emphasize “potential”. Rather than calling this a precipitation forecast. If you are new to the site, during the winter I am more detailed and take the models more seriously, issuing snow forecasts for specific locations throughout the forecast area.

Snow levels will drop towards the end of this precipitation event and will have to be watched very closely, especially Monday through Tuesday night.

My next update will be Saturday morning.

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9/27/23 Wednesday 8:30 am

Cooler and wetter conditions will usher in October. For now through Friday expect sunny, dry, and warm conditions to prevail. Changes will arrive on Saturday with a good chance of widespread showers developing throughout the forecast area.

There are still discrepancies among the models regarding the precipitation on Saturday, but the European model has been very consistent and I am more aligned with that solution than the drier GFS interpretation. You’ll remember I first mentioned this pattern change last Saturday.

Here is the latest run of the European From Saturday morning through next showing precipitation Saturday and Sunday and on-and-off throughout next week.

I put the maps in motion maps in 6-hour increments. Rain is green, the darker the shade the heavier the precipitation.

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9/23/23 Saturday 3 pm

Don’t be surprised to see showers develop later this evening and throughout the overnight hours. A small disturbance will be moving in from the south. This is the same disturbance the models picked up a couple of days ago, it is just arriving earlier than expected. Some of the models are painting some moderate accumulations by Sunday morning across the southern portions of the forecast area. We’ll see.

After the showers move out in the morning, drier air should move in and push temperatures back up to normal or slightly above. How long this lasts is a big question for next week. It looks like a more significant system could be heading into the Pacific Northwest this coming week. If it drops far enough south, we could see showers and high-elevation snow by next weekend.

Too early to plan for that, but something to keep an eye on.

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9/20/23 Wednesday 8 am

Yesterday, scattered showers and thunderstorms dumped a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch of rain across the forecast area. The models did a poor job of seeing this and downplayed the precipitation chances.

The models have not changed in the last 24 hours for today and tomorrow. Expect a dry day today. Tonight scattered showers will develop and become slightly more widespread overnight and into Thursday morning. Dry air will return by midday on Thursday. Depending on how much rain falls overnight and early Thursday morning, there may be enough residual moisture to spark a couple of storms.

Snow may fall below 11,000 feet. We will see dry weather move in for at least a couple of days, likely much longer. The models are eyeing a small disturbance to our south and they are starting to move that moisture in by Sunday. I will continue to watch it, but I have low confidence in that happening at the moment. Next week looks dry.

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9/19/23 Tuesday 8 am

For today, expect a slight chance of showers developing this afternoon. Drier air is working into the area and will continue to erode rain chances across the forecast area. Warmer and drier conditions can be expected most of Wednesday, which means we could get some gusty winds.

Wednesday night into Thursday the models are struggling with the placement of a passing low-pressure system. There is a chance that showers could develop and maybe even some snow showers down to the 10,000 foot level. At least that is what some of the models have been hinting at. We’ll see what those models say about that Wednesday afternoon.

Drier air should work its way back into the area by Thursday, this could begin an extended period of slightly above average temps and dry weather for a while. This is exactly what I expect this fall, warm and dry overall. We may see a couple of appearances from the jet but overall, above average temperatures and below average precipitation. If you like it, enjoy it. Winter will be very different.

As I have said several times, I expect El Nino to be in charge for fall then the warm waters of El Nino will transition into a Modoki and the bulk of the heat will move further west into the Central Pacific. This will result in a winter that gets underway in January and lasts through April or May. We have had similar winters in 09-10 and 18-19. Imagine last winter with colder temperatures and more snow in the lower elevations, and does not end in March.

I first talked about this in May and I am going to continue to talk about it through this warm and dry fall until winter takes hold, likely after Christmas. My message as we get into November and December will be DON’T PANIC. For my out-of-town followers keep this in mind when planning your vacations to SW Colorado.

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9/17/23 Sunday 8 am

Expect a  mixed bag of weather this week. Showers will return tomorrow due to a disturbance approaching from the southwest. On Tuesday we may see a slight chance of showers, especially over the higher-elevation areas. On Wednesday, another disturbance far to our west will approach the area.

There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty with this system and it affects on our weather from Thursday into the weekend. The models have not figured out if the system will bring some more precipitation or leave us high and dry. We have a couple of days to figure that out. For now, enjoy the seasonal fall weather!

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9/15/23 Friday 8:15 am

I noticed some problems with the models as the afternoon progressed yesterday. I have low confidence with what I am seeing in the model runs this morning. With that being said, the models do show rain and thunderstorms popping again today, with pockets of heavy rain occurring. Where that actually sets up is more of a coin flip, but the higher elevations should be favored. Snow could mix in again at or above 12,000 feet.

The European model has removed any chance of showers for the weekend, but the GFS and Canadian models still show very slight chances of late-day showers in the higher elevations. I am not a fan of models abruptly phasing out all chances of precipitation after such a wet pattern, so I would not trust a completely dry forecast in the higher elevations (above 8,500 feet) for Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

I have more questions than answers for the weather next week. Hopefully, I will get some clarity over the weekend.

My next post will be on Sunday.

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