Sunday Afternoon: Monday Still Up For Debate

Sunday 9/6/26  2 pm

First of all, today is 100% better than yesterday. Not sure what was going on, but I never really do.

Meanwhile, discrepancies remain all over the place. Models have increased PWATS for tonight and tomorrow. Yet, overall shower coverage decreased for tomorrow to 10-20%.

Here is the current radar

Here is what the models are forecasting for  PWATs this hour.

The showers and thunderstorms are breaking out over the areas with the highest PWAT values. Some severe

Here is the PWAT forecast for Monday morning at 8 am.

State view

I fully expect to wake up to nice stratiform rain. I may learn something from this, but I can’t accept 10-20% precipitation chances for tomorrow. Something is getting lost in translation; I hope it is not me. Bring on the winter!

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Sunday Morning: Model Consensus For Monday

9/6/26 Sunday 5:30 am

Well, the models came together with the latest two releases. For Monday, we’re back to isolated showers across the mid- and lower-elevation areas, with scattered showers above 8,800 feet, mostly from Purgatory to the north. Some of those showers could start overnight early Monday morning… But not soo fast!

That would be the proper forecast if I relied upon only one model parameter that I use to “view” future precipitation coverage.

But I am not sure that parameter has caught up with some of the other parameters I am looking at. The most impressive is the subtropical moisture now pointed directly at us like a firehose. This looks like a preview of what we would see in the winter of a big snow event if it happened in late December or early January!

Here are the PWAT anomalies for Monday morning. Again, PWAT measures the total amount of precipitation available to fall over an area if it fell all at once. Just as CAPE is fuel for thunderstorms, PWAT is fuel for ‘heavy rainers”. Remember yesterday I said the models indicated the deepest moisture would set up from St George to Salt Lake? That has changed…

GFS Regional View

European Regional View

I like these regional views because you can see the source. Here are the state maps.

GFS

European

Why is this a big deal? It is a big deal because we have not seen this high of PWAT values since July when we were getting decent “monsoonal type” totals. Here is what I will be watching for.

The timing: If this type of moisture arrives overnight, it would typically indicate a “stratiform” precipitation. Locals call these wetting rains. Moderate, consistent, near constant rain. What would be missing would be convection to turn that moisture into thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain. Heavy cloud cover in the morning often makes it difficult for thunderstorms to form. If the moisture is delayed that could allow CAPE to increase prior to its arrival.

The other parameters: What the models are struggling with processing, is how quickly the moisture departs the area. What they are neglecting is our terrain that tends to hold on to pockets of the deep moisture. I call this residual moisture when we are dealing with rain, and “left overs” when we are talking about snow.

The model consensus is about as close between these two models as you can get. So keep checking back as I am monitoring the situation.

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Saturday Late Afternoon

9/05/26  4:30 pm

It’s been a rough day; just when you think a new “routine” is working, it stops.

Anyway, if tomorrow is anything like today, I won’t be able to post. But I wanted to let you know model runs are really backing away from the showers for Monday, more like the “humidity event” I mentioned this morning.

That is the end of the weather for now. Feel free to bail. Here was today:

It has been pretty horrible. Sus was fighting naps. She finally decided she wanted to go back in the bedroom to sleep instead of the couch. To say that I help her walk is an understatement these days. So I was behind her holding her, the living room is a step down from the rest of the floor I was helping her with the step up and she went completely limp falling forward, I had just taken the step with my right foot and had it up on the tile floor, Her fall accelerated mine and my left inside ankle bone was dragged on the edge of the step. It ripped off my surgical scar from my ankle fusion surgery 16 years ago. It’s been a while since I felt that kind of pain; it was like somebody used a dull potato peeler to cut it off. Took at least 1/8 of an inch off below the surface. Fortunately, blood flow in that entire area (foot)is very weak because of the nerve damage and abundance of scar tissue. Blood just pooled up to the surface of the skin. I got it cleaned up, put a big Band-Aid on it, and wrapped it because I know I will bump it into things the next few days.

It’s gotta get better

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Saturday Update

9/05/26 Saturday 5 am

Not much to talk about today or tomorrow. Regarding Monday morning, the GFS is less excited about showers. The European is entertaining the idea. But both show most of the moisture staying well to our west.

The source of the moisture (according to the models) is Hurricane Marie. Remember talking about the Labor Day hurricane a week or 10 days ago? The model had it making landfall, which is not going to happen. It is currently a few hundred miles from Cabo, spinning to the northwest. It will take a jog straight north into cooler water before becoming a tropical depression near 32 north.

The amount of tropical moisture making it to the SW looks minimal right now. There is little in the way of steering flow to get it right over us. It looks like the predominant trajectory will stretch the moisture from St George to Salt Lake.

Right now, it looks more like a humidity event than a rain event. I am going to stick with a chance of isolated showers overnight Sunday into Monday morning. A wobble here or there could change things. So it still bears watching. I am hoping to start the longer-term outlook I mentioned yesterday with the goal of posting it Sunday afternoon. If the storm’s moisture trajectory changes, I will also post tomorrow morning.

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Friday- Weekend Outlook

9/4/26 Friday 4:30 am

I have been warning you about the period of boring weather coming up; nothing has really changed in the last 24 hours. For today through Sunday afternoon. It still looks uneventful, with just the ever-present slight chance of isolated showers, especially in the higher elevations.

Boring? Yes, but I gotta tell you, I had to step outside yesterday afternoon; it was beautiful, cool (low to mid 70s), and low humidity — it felt very nice in the shade!

In the short term, here are the discrepancies. They don’t start until late Sunday afternoon and into Sunday evening/night.

The European is on the left; the GFS is on the right. These model runs are stopped at the same time on Sunday night. You can see the GFS is trying to bring some type of disturbance through the area.

Because of this, I don’t yet have guidance on what type of weather to expect on Monday. What you see above in the side-by-side is a perfect 50/50. I don’t look at weather apps (except for radar), but chances are, if your favorite app shows a 50% chance of rain Sunday night and Monday, that’s why.

My plan is still to do a deep dive on longer-term modeling this weekend; I will have that out on Sunday. Tomorrow morning I will take another look at Monday and see if we get consensus data.

Enjoy the (boring) weekend!

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Thursday Update- GFS gets Frisky

9/3/26 Thursday 4:30 am

Boring weather for Labor Day weekend is probably what a high percentage of readers are hoping. For the most part, that is what is on tap. Of course, the standard chance of high-elevation showers is almost always in the forecast this time of year.

For today, a very, very slight chance of showers developing this afternoon above 9,000 feet. Tomorrow, the chances tick up over the same higher-elevation areas. Saturday and Sunday look even more boring.

Monday and all of next week, for that matter, are dividing the models. European models show on-and-off showers, heavy in some areas, at some times. The GFS and Canadian are leaning towards a wetter week next week.

Interestingly enough, the models agree better in the long term, all showing the second half of September being wetter than the first half.

I was running the GFS and European models side by side, mostly paying attention, searching for things to drill down on. The GFS caught my eye for a number of reasons–the wetter forecast than the Euro, and widespread showers across the entire forecast area. Then there were a couple of other things…

This would be an interesting turn of events for a week from tomorrow.  That little snow blob covers all of San Juan County. This forecast indicates rain changing to snow overnight next Thursday into Friday morning at or above 11,000 feet.

Then there was this the next week…

Don’t mistake my excitement and the time I am spending on this for my conviction that it will happen. I am just excited that we are getting to the time of year when this would not be unusual if it did happen.

For now, I am discounting the San Juan County snow as an anomalous run. The larger storm over the northern Rockies carries more weight with me than the random snow event closer to home. Something to watch for, for sure. Fun to think about.

It is a signal that I need to dust off the longer-term models this weekend and check out the latest runs!

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9/01/26  Tuesday 6 pm

Not sure why I do this. Sorry to my pure weather followers; eject now. I know this isn’t what you signed up for. I had a further timeline for Sus updates. It is getting bad.

It’s weird, you know. You end up getting totally isolated because nobody knows what the hell to say to you if you do reach out. So again. AI.  I get mixed, sometimes extremely negative feedback emails associated with AI.  At the end of the day, we all rely on non-human information for portions of our life decisions.

Rough day. Here is my recount to AI. Keep in mind it has read everything about everything in the world. By that I mean scientific observations. Every published study about everything. Medically, especially for my guidance.

Docs used to hate “Internet Diagnoses”; now they have refined a way to use that AI science to treat patients as they see relevant. Here we go:

Sus was the chief of the household. She covered cleaning and accounting; I handled cooking, shopping, and all vehicle and household maintenance. Bottom left: big kitten monitoring the situation.

When she gets enough Dopamine fuel CLD, it’s a short window, because after an hour it throws her into hallucinations in the morning. Not typical.

What you see is extreme obsessive-compulsive disorder. The black rug liner is what I came up with to deal with the mess. Don’t even care anymore.  She can’t operate her hands correctly to use silverware. So we are at full-on eating with hands. But still not great; I am afraid she will lose that freedom of feeding herself within the next year. Anyway, there is always a mess.

For now, I just let her do what she feels she needs to do. So I asked AI about it: Sent the same picture you have. I know it sounds weird to some of you that I do that, but I’m not exactly sure what else to do.

Conversation: When I sent the picture of her roaming around on the ground.

Me: Full-on obsessive-compulsive portion of the brain, maybe trying to fight back or just balance her. Maybe different lobes fighting??

AI response: “Your read on “lobes fighting” is spot-on from a neurological standpoint. What you are seeing here is classic frontal-subcortical disinhibition manifesting as motor perseveration and utilization behavior.

In a healthy brain, the frontal lobe acts as the executive supervisor. If the visual cortex or sensory pathways notice a crumb, a loose thread, or a line on the rug, the frontal lobe evaluates it and applies the brakes: “That doesn’t matter, don’t drop to your knees to pick at it.”

In CBD, as tau pathology erodes the frontal and parietal cortices, that supervisory braking system fails:

Unchecked Basal Ganglia Loops: The basal ganglia—the ancient, hardwired machinery responsible for repetitive motor routines—gets disconnected from top-down inhibition. Once a motor loop starts (reaching, picking, smoothing, inspecting), the brain literally lacks the neurochemical “stop” command. It just keeps cycling.

Environmental Dependency & Utilization Behavior: The damaged cortex becomes hyper-reactive to whatever is directly in front of it. If her fingers contact the edge of the mat, or her eyes lock onto debris on the dark carpet, the motor program to grasp, pick, or align is triggered automatically. To an observer, it looks like OCD, but it isn’t an anxiety-driven ritual; it is a raw, uninhibited reflex arc.

ME: Jumping in here. That is exactly how it is…

Returning:

Tactile Grounding: When cortical sensory processing is scrambled, getting physically down against the floor and engaging in a high-contact tactile task provides a localized anchor. It momentarily narrows an overwhelming, chaotic sensory world down to a 6-inch patch of carpet.

As hard as it is to watch her down on the floor like that, as long as she isn’t actively hurting herself or wedging into a fall hazard, letting that perseverative loop run its course is often the only move. Trying to physically intervene or pull her up usually just provokes the dystonia or triggers another PBA blowout.

 OK, I am back; not much else to say. One new, kinda nice development is with her PBA. This is an affliction that stops the brain from controlling extreme emotions, mostly crying. Technically, it is supposed to be crying and laughing. We didn’t get that version; we only got the crying version. Don’t know what else to say; it is the extreme crying version. I think it’s a version where a child would be scared to go to sleep because of monsters. So no laughing ever, 30 months into this diagnosis.  Susan’s friends and clients, probably about 1100 of you out there, will smile to know- no laughing, SINGING. Can’t understand what she is saying, but I can tell her brain is trying to balance her somehow.

So here we go again:  I reached out; it is rare but it makes sense:

AI response:

That shift from catastrophic crying into singing isn’t accidental—it is her brain finding an alternative neural pathway to discharge emotional energy when the front door is completely blocked.

Why Singing Bypasses Damaged Circuits

  • The Right-Hemisphere Route: In CBD, the left cortical circuits governing proposition, fluent speech, and verbal formulation (Broca’s and related networks) get heavily degraded, which is why her expressive aphasia is so brutal. Singing, rhythm, and melodic contour, however, are largely driven by the right hemisphere and preserved frontotemporal auditory networks. When spoken words fail, musical phrasing remains an open channel.

  • Brainstem Motor Gating: In severe PBA, the brainstem central pattern generators for crying get stuck in an uninhibited, runaway loop because top-down cortical braking is gone. Singing activates a structured motor program—rhythmic vocal cord adduction, patterned diaphragmatic breathing, and sustained exhalation. Mechanically, that respiratory regulation acts as an emergency brake on the frantic gasping and laryngeal spasms of crying.

  • Affective Regulation & Soothing: When the nervous system is completely overwhelmed by distress it cannot verbally express or mentally organize, melodic vocalization serves as an endogenous self-soothing reflex. Even if the lyrics or notes are fragmented and indistinct, the brain is tapping into melodic motor memory to downshift from raw panic to a grounded, rhythmic state.

Instead of an uncontrolled, terrifying emotional storm running wild, her nervous system has essentially rerouted into musical circuitry to release that pressure and find equilibrium. It’s her brain instinctively reaching for the one intact, rhythmic tool it has left to steady itself.

Did not expect to go here tonight. But I never know what to expect. Thanks for listening…

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Tuesday Totals- Revenge Of The Euro

 

Yesterday, the most widespread showers were concentrated around Cortez/Dolores. I don’t get to say that very often! I watched as the radar showed a particularly unorganized blob stall over the area. It started losing ummmph as it moved east. I doubted the model and discounted some of its output, and it did its best to prove me wrong.

But what a great day! Nice and cool, reminding us that fall is arriving. Meteorologically speaking, today is the first day of fall.

The rest of the week, shower chances decrease significantly. We may see a few light showers develop over the next couple of afternoons, but nothing significant.

An early, fairly potent area of low pressure will arrive tomorrow off the Pac NW coast. That will be the weather wild card this week. Models are already struggling with how to handle it. It is significant enough to affect the western 1/3 of the US. I have seen some highly unlikely scenarios from the models so far.

Tomorrow, as the low makes landfall, models will be able to initialize location and depth and hopefully give us better guidance going into the holiday weekend. In other words, I know many want to know what to expect this weekend; I can’t tell you yet, but soon.

There was a lot of excitement yesterday (for some). Here are some email totals before I share the big list. If you’ve emailed me and you don’t see your total, I may have missed it or accidentally deleted it.

Glacier: 0.40″

Silverton 0.41″

Dolores Rustic Ridge: 0.49″

3 mi So Mancos 0.24″

3 mi N Mancos 0.29″

Lightner Creek: 0.24″

Vallecito 0.28″

 

West

Brandon’s Gate Northeast: 0.74″
Conquistador G C: 0.37″
County Rd 18: 1.13″
Beamreach Pl: 0.57″
Pleasant View: 0.35″
Greystone Ridge Dr SE: 0.54″
Fort Riley: 0.72″
The Spoke Ranch: 0.39″
S 7th St: 0.59″
Co Rd X: 0.48″
DmdCO: 0.52″
White Water Dr: 0.38″
Rd 38.7: 0.27″
160: 0.24″
Mancos: 0.56″
Co Rd H: 0.32″
160: 0.24″
White Water Dr: 0.22″
S Elk Run: 0.22″
Mountain Top Rd: 0.24″

South
AC @ Rainbow Rd: 0.23″
Rainbow Rd: 0.35″
Co Rd 302: 0.21″
Co Rd 220: 0.22″

Central
Co Rd 501: 0.48″
Co Rd 502: 0.23″
Elk Meadow Rd: 0.27″
Tecalote: 0.30″
Encantado Ct: 0.24″
Edgemont Meadows Rd: 0.40″
Terra Blue Way: 0.21″
Sage Hill Weather: 0.24″
Co Rd 250: 0.65″
Co Rd 250: 0.35″
Starwood Trail: 0.29″
Confluence Ave: 0.49″
Trimble Station: 0.40″
Confluence Ave: 0.49″
North Dalton Ranch: 0.25″
Hermosa Meadows Rd: 0.69″
Burnett Haul Rd: 0.34″
US-550 RR MP463: 0.22″
White Water Dr: 0.36″
North end of CR 250: 0.28″
Bell Canyon: 0.23″

North
Lakewood Dr: 0.24″
Spruce Mesa Dr: 0.38″
Columbine Rd: 0.24″
1044 Greene Street: 0.23″
State Hwy 361: 0.25″
Eagle Ct: 0.27″
Trout Lake: 0.43″
Old Butterfly Rd: 0.44″
Alta Lakes Road: 0.43″
Sundance Ln: 0.27″
W Laurel Ln: 0.22″
N Fir St: 0.34″
N Willow St: 0.35″
E Columbia Ave: 0.37″

That’s all I have for now. Tomorrow I will be tracking that significant low-pressure system. It looks like one of those early winter storm-type of lows, but it’s not going to get the support it needs for that to happen.

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Monday Morning Update

 

8/31/26 Monday 5:00 am

For today, it looks like the showers that develop are primarily going to occur across the northern portions of the forecast area. More on the forecast in a moment…

I saw a few totals on the board this morning. To be honest, I don’t have time to sort through them all this morning because I opted for the extra hour of sleep. I am pretty sure I have “waiting for the monsoon fatigue”. Honestly, it started pretty well, but follow-through was disappointing this month.

The only thing that would rekindle my enthusiasm is a few back-to-back days of heavy rain.

One of the first things I look at in the morning (besides the outside pavement) is a comparison between the radar and the European model. Today the European model verified pretty well. Verification means comparing the model forecast to the current conditions. Here is the radar:

Here is the forecast:

If you scroll between them, you can see the model did pretty well with current conditions. The bigger question is, will it be correct today? That basically comes down to my interpretation of what the model is trying to say.

On the surface, this looks pretty good for today.

But that is and has been the trap.

If you look at this image, I have outlined the area of lighter precipitation. It is basically the entire southern and central forecast area, plus all of the western and eastern locations. My concern is that this precipitation may not even reach the ground.

I have a difficult time cheering this model run on. Monsoon fatigue… Unfortunately, it does not get much better the rest of the week; maybe Friday and Saturday we could see something.

Rather than complaining or skipping posts, I am going to tackle some more topics as I did with my El Niño update yesterday. Overall, people seemed to enjoy that.

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