12/8/23 Friday 7:20 am

Models look the same this morning as they did 24 hours ago. Despite that, the NWS has increased its totals for the NW San Juans.

COZ018-090245-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0038.231208T1200Z-231209T0600Z/  
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY  
332 AM MST FRI DEC 8 2023  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS  
EVENING...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10   
  INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS   
  GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS, GORE AND ELK   
  MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WEST ELK AND SAWATCH   
  MOUNTAINS, FLAT TOPS AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

10 seems a little high, but the snow is falling heavily on the mountain in Telluride (6:30 am).

It is also snowing from Ouray to Coal Bank but not at Purgatory or Wolf Creek yet.

Here was Coal Bank a little while ago.

The cold air is on its way. It will be a challenge for the lower elevations to get out of the mid-30s during the day. Single digits above will be possible by Saturday morning, many locations will flirt with 0 and below 0.

The late-week disturbance that was shown on the models yesterday is experimenting with different tracks. We will have to give it a couple of days to make up its mind. I don’t believe it indicates any type of pattern change.

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12/7/23 Thursday 8 am

Snow should break out early tomorrow morning across northern portions of the forecast area. Here is the latest European model snow forecast. This model is taking a best-case scenario approach to its forecast. The other models are not as generous.

This equates to dusting or less for most areas. 1-3 inches for Purgatory, Wolf Creek, Silverton, Ouray, and Rico. 3-6 inches for Telluride and Red Mountain Pass. The snow-to-liquid ratios will be very high toward the end of this storm, that is why I am predicting slightly higher snow amounts for Telluride and Red Mountain than the models show.

At some point, we will transition to a more predictable winter pattern, the storm track will also drop further south. The northerly track is very typical for late November and early December. I have recently said, I expect a pattern change around or after mid-month.

Models are already trying to sniff out a very disorganized warm storm coming through the area late next week. I am going to keep an eye on it but I have low confidence at this point. Technically, it is our next best chance of precipitation. Hopefully, it will start to look more organized in the coming days.

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12/6/23 Wednesday 7:25 am

Despite an encouraging model run or two, it looks like the “nuisance” system will earn its name this week. We will see the system brush by well to our north late Thursday through Friday. The tail of the system could drop far enough south to drop a little snow across the portions of the forecast area.

If everything comes together, 3-6 inches of snow may fall around Red Mountain and Telluride.  Purgatory, Rico, Silverton, and Wolf Creek might be able to pick 1-3 inches. No promises.

That would leave the rest of us with colder weather and a light to heavy dusting of snow. It is hardly what I would call a transition to winter.

So when does that transition take place? At this point, various model data are indicating after the 16th, more than likely after the 20th. If that were the case it would still be earlier than what I was originally thinking. So we watch and wait. It is quite normal for the areas north, especially in the northern and central mountains to get snow earlier and more abundantly than us. We will catch up.

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12/3/23 Sunday 8 am

As the final wave moves through well to our north, I would not be surprised to see a little more from Purgatory to areas north by tomorrow morning. For the most part, we are done.

A ridge is going to move overhead this week, and it is going to warm up a bit. Our next best shot at a storm will be the end of the week, possibly Friday/Saturday. At the moment, this looks like it could be nothing more than a slight nuisance. The storm would likely favor areas to our north again. This is quite typical of early December before the jet starts moving south towards the middle of the month.

Looking at my winter crystal ball, sometimes known as the MJO forecast, it looks like we will be moving back into a favorable period for storm development around December 17th that could stick around for quite a while.

Snow Totals

The totals reflect why this was such a difficult storm cycle to forecast. Regarding the totals, I am just the messenger, if yours are different than your neighbor’s I don’t know what to tell you. Totals can vary wildly at times, nothing surprises me.

Snow totals in no particular order. The donut hole effect is real!

Purgatory 12″ (not sure why they did not update their website)

Telluride 22″

Wolf Creek 16″

Silverton 7″(+)

Durango West2 6.75″

Deer Valley 4″

Deer Valley 6″

Three Springs 5.25″

Three Springs 9″

Top of Gem Village 7″

Upper Durango Hills 3″

Skyridge 3″

N Dolores (7000′) 7″

Glacier 4″

Lemon 3″

W. Mancos 4″

S Dolores 2.5″

Elmores Corner 4″

Mancos in town 6″

Lower Forest Lakes 2.3″

3 miles S Mancos 3″

Falls Creek 1.5″

S Cortez 2.1″

Bayfield Dove Ranch 4″

Rockwood 3.5″

Glacier 4″

N Falls Creek 2″

Durango Fairgrounds 2.7″

Silverton 7″

Vallecito 1.75″

Ouray 5″

Rico 14.5″

Silver Creek Ranch 8 mi NE of Mancos 9.25″

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12/2/23 Saturday 8:20 am

I don’t think the snow is close to done for Telluride and nearby portions of the northern forecast area. There may be a few lulls today, but I would not be surprised to see the atmosphere reload for late tonight and tomorrow.

Purgatory and Wolf Creek may even get a light refresh tonight. I am less confident that any more snow will fall in the lower elevations, but some areas at or above 7,400 feet may see a little more snow tonight.

Overall, the storm has exceeded my expectations. I received 6.75 inches. Purgatory is at 9 inches so far. Wolf Creek is at 16 inches. As expected, Telluride is leading at 21 inches as it continues to snow there this morning.

If you would like to send your totals now that is fine, I am not going to compile them all until tomorrow.

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12/1/23 Friday 2:45 pm

Most areas have picked up 3 to 5 inches of snow. Wolf Creek is at 8 inches, and Telluride just surpassed a foot on the mountain.

Although there will continue to be lulls, snow will pick up in intensity as the temperatures fall. Without getting into too many details, 1 to 2 additional inches could accumulate by late tonight or early Saturday in the lower elevations. 2 to 4 inches across the mid-elevation areas. 3 to 6 more for Purgatory, with a little more than that at Wolf Creek by tomorrow.

Between now and Sunday, 6 to 12 more inches could fall at Red Mountain and Telluride. I may have to update that tomorrow.

Speaking of tomorrow, continue to document your totals, but don’t send them until I give the all-clear. These types of systems have a tendency to produce snow squalls in the leftovers. I should know pretty early if that looks likely and I will post when I do. Northern portions of the forecast area will want to hold off until late Sunday before sending totals.

About a month ago, I mentioned that I was more confident than ever that my above- average snowfall with below-normal temperatures forecast for winter would happen. But, I said my only concern, was that I was my forecast was for a late start to winter. From what I am seeing in the mid-range models, I may have to concede that winter won’t start late. It actually may have started early. We’ll see, if everything comes together for another storm next weekend, I may throw in the towel on timing.

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12/1/23 Friday 6:45 am

Snow will be scattered in the low and middle elevations, but it is not done. Thanks for measuring, but don’t send any totals until Saturday. Now would be a good time to measure and clear your area before the snow compacts. Keep track of your totals and send them on Saturday.

If you are near Purgatory or further north near Telluride or Ouray hold sending totals until at least Sunday. Telluride and Red Mountain are going to see significantly higher totals beginning later today, through Saturday at least. I expect the Winter Advisory will have to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, before the end of the day.

I will post again later today.

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11/30/23 Thursday 4:20 pm

As of 4 pm, snow is already falling as far south as the southern border of the San Juan National Forest south of Rockwood. North to Purgatory, Coal Bank, Molas, Silverton, Red Mountain Pass, and Ouray.  As well as Telluride to the west, and Wolf Creek to the east. Snow will expand across the forecast area as the evening wears on and most areas will have snow by morning.

Most of the time, smaller storms are harder to forecast accurately, that certainly will be the case with this storm cycle. Most of the snow will come to an end by Saturday, but in the northern forecast area, snow could linger through Sunday night. I may adjust totals across that area on Friday afternoon. For now, I am being conservative.

Here is my forecast from the first flake to the last, and it does not take into consideration melting or compaction.

Red Mountain Pass:  12 to 16  inches

Telluride:  10 to 14  inches

Wolf Creek, Ouray, Purgatory, Coal Bank Pass:  8 to 12 inches

Lake Purgatory area, Silverton, Rico:  6 to 9 inches

Vallecito, Lemon area, Enchanted Forest, Glacier, Tween:  4 to 7 inches

Durango Ridge Ranch, Hesperus Hill area, Rockwood:  3 to 5 inches

Dwest 1&2,  All Rafter J, Lake Durango, All Shenandoah, Northern Long Hollow Ranch, All Edgemont, All Forest Lakes, Pagosa Springs, Deer Valley Estates, Dolores:  2 to 4 inches.

Pine River Ranches, Timberdale area, Trappers Crossing, Hermosa, Ridgway, Breen: 1 to 3  inches

Durango, Bayfield, Mancos, Gem Village, Three Springs, Aztec, Marvel:  a dusting to 3 inches

Cortez, Ignacio, Oxford: 0 to 1 inch

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11/30/23 Thursday 7:20 am

First the Advisories

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
305 AM MST THU NOV 30 2023  
  
COZ009-012-017>019-302300-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0036.231201T0000Z-231202T0600Z/  
GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-  
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-  
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CRESTED BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK, MARBLE,   
RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,   
RICO, AND HESPERUS (MAYDAY) 
305 AM MST THU NOV 30 2023  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10   
  INCHES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ABOVE 8500 FEET. LOCALLY HIGHER   
  AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES.  
  
* WHERE...GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS, WEST ELK AND SAWATCH   
  MOUNTAINS, UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE, NORTHWEST   
  SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
345 AM MST THU NOV 30 2023  
  
COZ068-301900-  
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0031.231201T0000Z-231202T0600Z/  
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-WOLF CREEK PASS 
345 AM MST THU NOV 30 2023  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 10   
  INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE HAZARDOUS   
  CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL OVER WOLF CREEK PASS.  
  

It looks like we are going to see some light nuisance snow across the lower elevations on Friday, mostly under 2 inches. I have not made up my mind yet on totals for most areas. The big winner will likely be North Ouray, Red Mountain, Camp Bird area, and Silverton Ski area. A good portion of their heavy snow will fall well into Sunday. This could keep Red Mountain a mess, and will be the most likely place to see potential closures Saturday night through Monday. Keep that in mind when planning your weekend.

Here are the latest maps. They show snow in inches, the color code is at the bottom of each map. Most support the famous Durango Donut phenomenon. If you are new the Donut refers to everyone getting snow around Durango with Durango in town getting mostly missed.

Some of these maps I agree with, and some I disagree with. This setup has BUST written all over it for forecasters. I will likely be less dialed in, in the lower elevations on this storm.

GFS

 

Canadian

European

 

 

 

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11/29/23 Wednesday 1:45 pm

I thought we might have had better model consensus by this afternoon, but that is not the case. I have been told wrong maps are better than no maps (people really like a visual aid).

I will start with the three I think are most wrong. These are all snow accumulations from first flake to last flake. This is a default 10 to 1 ratio, so add 20% or so for the mountains.

GFS

Canadian

European

The next model run looks believable enough to me I am just not sure about the totals. This is a blended model.

NBM

It does a good job highlighting the correct areas for the expected positioning of the jet.

We will see what tomorrow brings! Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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