7/15/22 Friday 1:30 pm
I got this in my email today.
Comment or question: “I’ve noticed that it’s roughly 10 degrees hotter and much drier than both your forecast and weather dot com’s forecast. Would you be willing to address that in your next post? I feel like we’ve totally missed the mark on all forecasts and I’d like to know why, and also what to expect for the coming weeks.”
I copied this directly from my post on Tuesday. People can go back and check if they want.
“Showers were slightly more widespread yesterday than Sunday. A few areas mostly north of Coal Bank saw some decent showers on Sunday, yesterday the showers expanded a little further south into the central portions of the forecast area. More of the same for the next couple of days, expect the unexpected. Some of the models are even showing some snow at the 14,000-foot level for the next couple of afternoons.
Small thunderstorms will develop across the area due to daytime heating and monsoonal moisture. I know it sounds like an excuse but these Meso-Scale Convective Systems are very difficult to forecast in our area. They will be the rule for the next several days. The moisture is expected to increase as we go into the weekend.”
1) I pointed out that the small storms were difficult to predict on a daily basis and that they would be the rule for this week.
2) I never mentioned temperatures.
3) I said moisture would increase as we go into the weekend.
4) Immediately after that I went on to talk about the long-term outlook through August.
I can’t speak for “weather dot com”. But it looks like the only person who has “missed the mark” is the person who sent me that email. He wanted me to address it in my next post, so there you go…
I know my neighborhood has missed out on the isolated showers that have popped up in other locations. Most of the southern portions of the forecast area have had similarly rain-free days this week. I can’t technically refer to it as dry, because dewpoints have been running high all week.
The models are no longer focusing on as deep of push of moisture into the area over the weekend. That being said, the PWAT values will run from 120% to 160% of the statistical average which would keep rain and thunderstorms in the 40-50% category through the first couple of days next week. Basically, not enough to either count on it or rule it out.
I am not worried that some of us have missed a couple of afternoons of rain, and I don’t think we are done. Like I said on Tuesday, I expect July to finish strong and for August to be abundant.
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