Friday Afternoon Update

7/15/22 Friday 1:30 pm

I got this in my email today.

Comment or question: “I’ve noticed that it’s roughly 10 degrees hotter and much drier than both your forecast and weather dot com’s forecast. Would you be willing to address that in your next post? I feel like we’ve totally missed the mark on all forecasts and I’d like to know why, and also what to expect for the coming weeks.”

I copied this directly from my post on Tuesday. People can go back and check if they want.

“Showers were slightly more widespread yesterday than Sunday. A few areas mostly north of Coal Bank saw some decent showers on Sunday, yesterday the showers expanded a little further south into the central portions of the forecast area. More of the same for the next couple of days, expect the unexpected. Some of the models are even showing some snow at the 14,000-foot level for the next couple of afternoons.
Small thunderstorms will develop across the area due to daytime heating and monsoonal moisture. I know it sounds like an excuse but these Meso-Scale Convective Systems are very difficult to forecast in our area. They will be the rule for the next several days. The moisture is expected to increase as we go into the weekend.”
1) I pointed out that the small storms were difficult to predict on a daily basis and that they would be the rule for this week.
2) I never mentioned temperatures.
3) I said moisture would increase as we go into the weekend.
4) Immediately after that I went on to talk about the long-term outlook through August.
I can’t speak for “weather dot com”. But it looks like the only person who has “missed the mark” is the person who sent me that email. He wanted me to address it in my next post, so there you go…
I know my neighborhood has missed out on the isolated showers that have popped up in other locations. Most of the southern portions of the forecast area have had similarly rain-free days this week. I can’t technically refer to it as dry, because dewpoints have been running high all week.
The models are no longer focusing on as deep of push of moisture into the area over the weekend. That being said, the PWAT values will run from 120% to 160% of the statistical average which would keep rain and thunderstorms in the 40-50% category through the first couple of days next week. Basically, not enough to either count on it or rule it out.
I am not worried that some of us have missed a couple of afternoons of rain, and I don’t think we are done. Like I said on Tuesday, I expect July to finish strong and for August to be abundant.
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9 thoughts on “Friday Afternoon Update

  1. MO

    We received ~0.3” yesterday evening here on 502 just south of Vallecito and Lemon at 7800 feet! Nice little unexpected shower

  2. Robert Evans

    Looks like the hotter-and-dryer person must read a lot of weather reports and get them confused. Who could blame him/her/it? The drought websites seem to have overlooked June’s precip, what, 5 inches or so depending? If the other sites delete the rain it would have been pretty hot too, under those cloudless skies. And the snopack/river flow readings/forcast, not updated since mid-May, says the following misinformation :Statewide, streamflow forecasts are 68 percent of median, dropping from 77 percent of median at the end of April. The forecasts for all basins range from 26 percent of median in the combined San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan river basins to 99 percent of median in the Laramie-North Platte river basin.” They’re not rafting the Animas on 26 percent in July, nor were they in June. Maybe government sites don’t report abundant rain and moderate temperatures for some reason.

  3. Pat Amthor

    I live in Aztec and am glad to get you information. If I want to know what is happening with the weather I look outside and at a cloud or a thermometer! Thanks for you knowledge of what MAYBE coming this way!

  4. Tuck Bonham

    You are the best for local weather information and have been for some time.
    You should let emails/complaints like that just,”roll off your back like a duck”. Keep up the good work, you have our support😊

  5. Susan

    That was a great “address” 😊. I live in Farmington now but read every one of your posts, hoping to catch a glimpse of what might occur here. Your wealth of knowledge is amazing!

  6. Lucinda Carr

    Thanks Durango Weather Guy! I think you give us plenty of “latitude” to make educated interpretations of the weather possibilities☔️💦

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