12/13/25 Saturday 5 am
It has been a very challenging and demanding week for me. I just caught up on my emails and have picked a couple of topics to discuss over the next few days.
There are no changes to thinking that it will be at least around Christmas before we get a break.
Here is the model initialization for 5 am.
Notice the thick black line from the South Dakota/Nebraska border, cutting through Wyoming into Western Montana.
It is not as it appears. It is not a single thick line but multiple thin lines of pressure stacked on top of each other. This demonstrates the strength of the high-pressure dome/ridge we are trapped under. It also shows the rails for the storm train/track (just northeast of the ridge).
You know I rely heavily on the European model, but it is at its worst (performance) in our region, given the current atmospheric conditions. The GFS handles it a bit better.
The GFS is still showing a Christmas Storm, which would be a sloppy mess in the lower elevations and good snow for the Ski areas. The European takes a couple days later and brings a much smaller storm.
Both models tend to get more accurate once they are under ten days out, so this week we should start seeing a better, more accurate forecast.
Crossing finger’s