12/30/25 Wednesday 5:15 am
I slept until almost five, which has got to be some sort of record for me this year!
Models are pointing to a complicated solution for Thursday and Friday. Southwest flow starts later today, advecting moisture into Southern California. Moisture moves into Arizona with a heavier “blob” sitting over Las Vegas around 11 pm. Moisture reaches our forecast area by tomorrow morning.
Moisture will be arriving in a dry, hostile environment. As always, the moisture will saturate from the top down. Which is why the higher elevations always get in on the action first.
Flow at some point turns westerly, then transitions to northwesterly, and finally northerly. Accurate, specific forecasts will be impossible with such a small amount of moisture. Timing the arrival of moisture relative to upper-level wind patterns (the storm steering track) is not something the models will be good at, because there is basically no energy in the system (or pulses). This makes any precipitation terrain dependent.
I will likely attempt to put a broad-based blanket forecast on it later today, and will monitor the flow throughout the day tomorrow and Friday in case more moisture shows up during one of the wind flow patterns we are in. For example, if all the moisture appears when we are in a particular flow pattern, I will highlight those areas. Call it an on-the-go forecast.
I know it sounds like gibberish, but that is because it’s an unorganized, weak system entering a hostile (storm-killing) environment.
Another similar system may arrive to start the week, with perhaps something else to talk about towards the end of next week.
I’ll be back…