1/4/26 Sunday 5 am
Today
Warmer temps will be back on track today. Flurries are possible across higher-elevation areas at or above 10,000 feet.
Tomorrow
A weak system in northwest flow will deliver anything from flurries to a couple of inches of snow for the NW San Juans. I have my eye on a couple of models highlighting Lizard Head Pass for a better chance of accumulation over 3 inches. I will have plenty of time to re-evaluate that tomorrow morning before the precipitation chances increase by midday.
Late Week Storm
After a couple of days of agreement, the models have decided to go their separate ways and pursue their own solutions for the late-week storm. Officially, my cautiously optimistic tone is back to neutral until the models come back together.
What I am seeing is the European model still indicating a storm that would deliver advisory snow amounts for both the mountains and lower elevations. That while the GFS now takes the moisture source south a few hundred miles, we get nothing.
Nothing has changed with the current conditions or current locations of the systems involved. Either the GFS is setting the trend, or it is lost. I have been reviewing many more models than I usually do this morning for clues, and finding none.
It is not unusual to see some divergence, but when the systems are still over the ocean, the models cannot converge on a solution. Hopefully, by Tuesday, we will see the models get back together for improved guidance.