2/15/26 Sunday 6:30 am
I slept in, not on purpose; it just happened.
The models remain very consistent run to run. Not only are the models consistent with each other, but they are also consistent with themselves. In other words, they keep showing the same thing every run–A lot of snow!
Although there appear to be three distinct events that will be difficult to time, this will likely make travel planning largely impossible. Each system reinforces the previous one, leaving little time for CDOT to catch up. For safety, they will likely have to close passes for cleanup.
“Pre-Storm” snow will likely begin in the mountains at some time on Monday. By Tuesday morning, the models are showing us in the thick of it, just in time for the morning commute. Do I think schools will have to close this week? It would not surprise me!
Late Tuesday, the snow may taper off in the lower elevations, but I can’t see any reason why it would stop before Thursday in the mountains. It will just be lighter between the heavier periods.
The second shot is currently scheduled to arrive on Wednesday afternoon, lasting through the evening. At that point, models show more of a distinct lull on Thursday before another system loads up over the Sierra. For the week, areas from Tahoe down to Mammoth will accumulate totals up to 100 inches!
While we won’t see that much, the model totals are still impressive for the week.
Here are the latest snow totals (based on 10-to-1 ratios, so they could be 20-30% higher above 9,000 feet).
European
GFS
The Canadian is going crazy, literally off the scale.
I say off the scale because it only goes to 48 inches. I reviewed the liquid precip maps and confirmed the model is predicting 69.6 inches. Surprisingly, the Canadian shows the Friday storm missing us, so these totals are from Tuesday to Thursday only. The Canadian is usually pretty accurate for higher elevations. We’ll see.
That is all for now. I will post today’s morning model runs when they all generate