2/16/26 Monday 5:30 am
Everything is on track for Monday through Thursday morning. The European model is now showing low impacts on Friday. However, for now, it’s the only model with that solution. It bears watching because it’s an abrupt change, but I can’t take it too seriously yet.
For today, warm and windy is the forecast. But nothing compared to the wind we will get during the frontal passages on Tuesday morning and on Wednesday.
It will be a very abrupt change. Temperatures will drop quickly, and if you are indoors, you will hear the front; the wind will be gusty. Be very careful if you are driving because there will likely be “whiteouts” and snow squall potential is high.
Wednesday looks even more dramatic: colder air will move through and may spark some convection (thunder snow). More whiteout conditions and snow squalls. Perfect snow environment, with liquid to snow ratios soaring into the high teens in some areas.
It appears NWS has not made up its mind on extending the Winter Storm Warning to the lower and mid-elevation areas. Likely because they think the pavement will still be “warm,” melting the snow as it falls.
I am not so sure that will be the case. I expect them to change their mind at some point, perhaps when they see the frontal passage on the webcams. If not for tomorrow, then definitely before the frontal passage on Wednesday.
If you are new to the area and have not experienced a big storm, this one will be memorable! You don’t want to try to drive in it (if you can’t see, you can’t drive)
Here is the current Winter Storm Warning for the higher elevations.
COZ018-019-161815- /O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0003.260217T0600Z-260219T1200Z/ Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn Pass, Lake City, Silverton, Molas Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Rico, and Hesperus 1003 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 20 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph. * WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN...From 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow may result in near zero visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage.
Yes, 70 mph!
As long as my internet stays on, I can post if the power goes out because I have the AC generators fully charged and ready.
Will the City of Durango and La Plata County be ready? That’s the question.
I will be working on my forecasts today; they will be out later this afternoon. I may hold off on the Friday system until either the European figures out what it is doing or the other models move toward the European solution.
Can you tell I am excited?