3/6/26 Friday 4 am
Well, the overnight models look much different from yesterday’s model runs. Model inconsistency after the snow starts falling is frustrating for forecasters.
That, coupled with the setup to our east in the plains states, showing the likelihood of severe weather, immediately cautions me that the forecasts for more snow at Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and the mid-elevation areas will be overdone.
It could be a classic WTI storm. “Was that it?” We will see. Either way, Telluride, Red Mountain, and Ouray will still be favored because of the northwest and northerly flow.
NWS made some changes last night:
This one is probably a good call.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1012 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026 COZ018-061900- /O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-260307T0700Z/ Northwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn Pass, and Lake City 1012 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN...Until midnight MST Friday Night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
This next one has me scratching my head a little:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1012 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026 COZ019-061900- /O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-260307T0700Z/ Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Silverton, Molas Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Rico, and Hesperus 1012 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT ABOVE 9500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 9500 feet. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 10 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN...Until midnight MST Friday Night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
I hope I am wrong, or I should say, I hope the latest model runs are wrong, because they don’t show anything like this.
Then, we have the geniuses over in Pueblo going out on a limb with a “no fail forecast”.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 127 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 COZ068-061630- /O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-260307T0700Z/ Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Including Wolf Creek Pass and Cumbres Pass 127 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN...Until midnight MST tonight. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Expect slick and snow covered roads at times, especially across Wolf Creek Pass.
This will be interesting, but my money would be on the under.