3/27/26 Friday 5 am ish
Currently 43 degrees at DWG HQ, interestingly enough, a lightning detection 22-25 miles away a couple of minutes ago.
This is likely a false detection, however, over the last couple of days, the European model has been showing a few pop-up showers, mostly over the northern portions of the forecast area today. I have mostly disregarded this because, if it verifies, there likely wouldn’t be enough to measure. (so what good is it)…
The main story continues to be the changes that all of the models are showing for next week. I can’t find a model that does not show these changes. Here is the list of models I have checked.
- NBM
- NBM v5
- European
- European AI
- GFS
- GFS AI
- Canadian
- Canadian GDPS
- German ICON
- UKMET
- European Ensemble
- GFS Ensemble
- Canadian Ensemble
There are minor differences in precipitation start and stop times, but the overall theme is the same: Light precipitation possible on Monday and Tuesday as moisture moves into the area, giving way to more significant precipitation by midweek (likely Wednesday/Thursday). Mostly rain below 9,000 feet, snow above. Towards the end of the event, some models are showing snow levels dropping to 8,000 feet.
Precipitation amounts vary widely, but this is mostly due to differences in model resolution. As I said, it is way too early to talk about precipitation event totals — maybe this weekend we can dive into them if the model consistency continues.
My next update will be on Saturday.