10/23/26 Friday 6:30 am
I looked at some of the Pagosa totals; several locations got 4 to 6 inches of rain yesterday. The highest total I found was on the NE corner of town: 8.35 inches yesterday.
The only model that initialized well this morning was the Canadian model, go figure.
Because of this, I have very low confidence in today’s forecast. Surface maps show the trough and associated cold front to our west. Satellite tells a different story. It shows the trough has already moved past us, with slightly drier air invading our area.
This reprieve sounds good, but if it leads to clear skies, thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon. Most models don’t show the next system affecting us until this evening. Looking at multiple models, precipitation forecasts show another 1 to 3 inches of rain by Monday morning. As I said. I have low confidence in the overnight model runs.
Because we are in a lull, I am going to hold off on weekend weather details until the new model runs come out. One thing I will be watching is snow levels, which will be dropping; early indications show 9,000 to 10,000 feet.
I will continue to monitor the river forecast today and this weekend. If anything changes between now and my noon update, I’ll post.