10/20/26 Tuesday Noon
Morning models are slightly slowing the onset of heavy precipitation (again), as expected.
Overview
Nothing meaningful has changed; showers and storms will start moving into the area tomorrow. Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated, more on this in a moment.
Here are the latest precipitation forecast models through Friday night.
NBM
German
Canadian
European
GFS AI- I fired the old original GFS. It is not dependable; it flip-flops all of the time and forecasts scenarios that could never happen with our terrain. I have been tracking the GFS AI for a while, and it is impressive. That’s the first time I have ever used the words GFS and Impressive together.
Time to revisit what I said earlier: “Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated”
That is an understatement. It’s also why I named this post “Too Big To Ignore!”
I have mentioned a couple of times that the Euro doesn’t stop raining on Friday; it continues through Sunday night/Monday morning. All of the other models are now on board with this solution. If this happens, I will have to update all of the flood areas; this could become a big problem. The maps I posted above are for precipitation through Friday night.
If I extend these models through Sunday night. Look at what it does to those totals:
German Model through Sunday night
Canadian Model through Sunday night
European Model through Sunday Night
GFS AI through Sunday night- that is a scary 10 inches of liquid at Wolf Creek Pass. Canadian showed 8.5 inches
To complicate things further, there is a slight chance we could see lower snow levels this weekend.
If you did not read my last update on current areas forecasted to have potential flooding issues, you can read it here: Tuesday Potential Flood Areas To Watch For Event
