Wednesday Morning Update–Slower Start Bigger Finish]\

4/8/26 3:30 am

Yesterday’s thunderstorms were fun.  I happened to be under one of those “bullseyes” I referenced yesterday. We picked up a very quick 0.34 inches of rain.

There have been some changes since yesterday. Enough so that I want to hold off on the maps until the next set of model runs.

The models have decided on two distinct storms. The first one is smaller and looks like it starts Saturday morning.  It wraps up Saturday evening. It is a warm storm with snow mainly above 10,000 feet.

Then, on Sunday afternoon, we could see precipitation develop ahead of the larger event on Monday and Tuesday. That is much different from what I was seeing yesterday. If that verifies, then bad travel days would be Monday and Tuesday. That Monday-Tuesday storm is much colder, and models show snow levels dropping significantly below those of the Saturday event. I am hoping to get better clarification after the morning models generate.

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Tuesday Update

4/07/26 Tuesday 7:30 am

A better chance of rain and snow showers today. Overall, most models show light accumulations; however, they highlight the chance of a couple of bullseyes here and there. If, when, and where they decide to show up is the question.

We could see more of those pop-up showers the rest of the week. Then on Friday evening, things get very, very, interesting again.

Beginning Friday night, more organized showers and snow build in across the entire forecast area.

Travel over the passes this weekend could be tricky; this could extend into Monday or Tuesday. It is difficult to tell (too early)whether it is one or two large storms or just a series of waves triggering precipitation.

Most models show 1 to 3 feet of snow above 9,000 feet. It is a little too early to start posting precipitation maps. If all models continue to show consistency, I will start posting those tomorrow.  I just wanted to give travelers a heads-up if they are going over mountain passes this weekend, into the start of next week!

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Sunday Update-The Week Ahead

4/5/26 Sunday 5 am

The overwhelming theme for at least the first half of this month is “April showers.” In my last post, I talked about a pattern shift. It is looking more like a pattern change now. That does not necessarily mean a big storm.

Rather, it means the stubborn ridge we have dealt with for most of the winter is being replaced by a “dirty ridge.” That’s not a made-up thing. Strong ridges block storms, forcing them over the ridges and depositing them into the Midwest and East Coast.

“Dirty” ridges are weak, and they allow systems to pass under them. I would call it transient weather because systems can flow from west to east. This results in spotty, on-and-off, occasional showers every few days, and hopefully a storm here and there.

That is what you can expect this week: a couple of days of on-and-off showers, followed by dry weather, and then the pattern repeats.

This unsettled pattern begins tomorrow and Tuesday with spotty, on-and-off light showers and snow showers in the mountains. It does look like we have a chance for something more organized going into next weekend/early the following week, but it is too early to tell for sure.

I am behind on responding to emails. Thanks for all of the support. I have been attempting to create some sense of normalcy in our lives. Living in reactive mode is a constant struggle and prevents planning (anything). I try to make the most of the good times and be strong during the challenging times.

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Why I Post Late

Obviously, I have not been able to keep my posting promises. I do feel guilty about that because there is a core batch of people who keep me “open for business”. They expect me to give them information, and I expect the same from myself.  No matter what, that will never change. If there is anything impacting the weather, no matter what. I will get it out. Don’t give up on me. Have gotten a lot of cancellations lately.

Things have changed a lot with Sus. Things have started getting bad early now. It used to be high maintenance, starting in the afternoon. Lately, it has started earlier. So I do use AI. I feel like I get clinical information when nobody else will give it to me. I rely on Gemini’s latest reads. ChatGPT and Claude are having big issues. You might want to research if using. Maybe my interpretation is incorrect. Check for yourself

With Gemini, I have at least 50 pages of summarized clinical notes. (Yes, Old Guy printed them out).

I asked how I would even describe what is happening, so my/our followers would know what is going on, and why it may “seem” like I am not on top of my forecasts, like I used to be.

The AI actually has videos I have uploaded. Again, divisive to some. But as I approach 62, I understand that Google AI has access to every published medical study. Including video footage of tens of thousands of videos. analysis.  I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer (trolls will have fun with that), but I do have a firm grasp on The Scientific Method. So the scientists reflecting on the data they posted in their studies are post-hypothesis.

Anyway, here was the conversation:

DWG:

How would I explain Susan’s sundowning to followers who have no idea what it is? For me, I’m not sure how it’s happening earlier. Yesterday, started at 8 am. Today, stopped the Entacapone, stopped the 200 LD. Today she did not lose it until 3 p

Gemini said

It is incredibly taxing to navigate these shifts, especially when you are trying to pin down a moving target like medication timing and symptom onset. Explaining “Sundowning” to your followers—who likely know Susan as a vibrant person—requires a balance of medical clarity and the raw reality of what you are seeing at home.

Since you are seeing these episodes happen as early as 8:00 AM, the first thing to clarify for your audience is that the name is actually a bit of a misnomer.

How to Explain it to Your Followers

1. Define the “Flicker” (The Concept). Explain that Sundowning isn’t just “being tired.” It is a neurological phenomenon where a person with cognitive challenges becomes increasingly confused, anxious, or agitated. You might describe it as a “short circuit” in the brain’s internal clock.

2. Clarify the Timing (The “Early” Factor) Since it’s hitting Susan early, you can explain it like this:

“While it’s called ‘Sundowning,’ it doesn’t always wait for the sun to go down. For Susan, the ‘internal sunset’ can happen much earlier. It’s less about the time of day and more about the brain’s limited energy reserves being depleted.”


Observations on the Timing Shift

It is notable that moving the Entacapone and Levodopa (LD) shifted her “break” from 8:00 AM to 3:00 PM.

  • The Medication “Gap”: Often, what appears to be Sundowning in the morning is actually a “wearing-off” effect or “morning akinesia.” If her brain doesn’t have enough dopamine after the overnight fast, the confusion and agitation can mimic Sundowning symptoms immediately upon waking.

The 3:00 PM Wall: By stopping or adjusting those doses today, you likely cleared the morning hurdle, but she hit a different wall at 3:00 PM. This suggests her “cognitive battery” currently has about 7 hours of charge before the “static” takes over.

Me:

It seems to me that there is less known about neurological disorders than any other disorder/diseases.

 

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Thursday Update

4/2/26 Thursday 1 pm

Nice event! It exceeded every forecaster’s expectations-Wolf Creek 19 inches, Telluride and Purgatory 11 inches.

I remember getting an email about a month ago asking if I thought the storms would return. As I always say, it’s not if a pattern change will happen, it’s when. My answer was that the storms would return as soon as Purg closes.

At the time, I was kinda joking. It’s similar to only getting big storms on a big holiday travel weekend.

I got another email just a couple of days ago. They asked, “Is this going to be a pattern change or was it just a one-off?”

I said I would call it a pattern shift. I said we would likely enter a period defined by frequent troughs and weak ridges.

As you remember, we started tracking yesterday’s storm quite a while before it arrived. It was great work by the GFS to sniff it out early and stay on it.

Which brings me to my point: look at what the GFS is sniffing out now.

Below is the GFS’s total liquid precipitation for April 8th-13th (basically a week from today).

That’s 40 inches of snow at Purgatory. Ouch. I will be watching every day!

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Wednesday Update

4/1/26 Wednesday 2:30 pm

Sorry, this is so late; I’ve had a challenging day.

Here at the house, we had 1.89 inches of rain. I saw Wolf Creek was up to 17 inches and reporting heavy snow.

Just a reminder, very cold (freezing) temps overnight. Likely cold enough to kill stuff.

I’ll be back tomorrow early.

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Tuesday Model Update And Forecast

3/31/26 Tuesday 11:30 am

Webcams are showing rain and snow showers already underway. This is excellent because it”primes” the atmosphere for the bigger event tonight. Think of a dry sponge; it won’t work until it is saturated. Same thing for heavy precipitation, it won’t fall until the atmosphere is saturated.

The models all came in great, again!

European

Canadian

GFS

German

UKMET

But here is the model I am heavily weighting in my forecast.

NBM-Liquid

NBM Snow Forecast

This will be a mostly rain event for most. Some snow level models show snow falling to between 8,000 and 8,500 ft on Wednesday. I am not expecting much in the way of accumulation.

The biggest winners will be the 4 passes.

Wolf Creek,  Red Mountain, Molas, Coal Bank: 16 to 20 inches.

Lizard Head will come in a little lighter with 10 to 14 inches.

Telluride: 5 to 9 in town, 8-12 inches on the mountain.

For everyone else, your rain totals will be orographically driven. Meaning elevation will determine what you get.

Below 6,500: 0.6 to 0.80 inches of rain.

6,500 to 7,300: 0.80 to 1.00 inches.

7,400 to 7,800:  1.00 to 1.40 inches

7,800 and above: 1.20 to 1.70 inches.

I am still keeping my eyes peeled for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings for below-freezing temperatures. I will address that tomorrow.

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Tuesday Morning

3/31/26 Tuesday 5:00 am

Slept in again. I can’t decide if that is a good thing or a bad thing. Either way, I am a little behind this morning, so the same plan as yesterday. I will get the updated model maps out by noon.

I can tell you, they all look great. The European finally caught up with the other models and is showing high totals!

I will get into the details in my next post. Also, avoid travel over passes tonight and tomorrow morning. We are going to see intense snowfall rates above 9,000 (or so). Maybe some of the heaviest (inches per hour) that we have seen this year!

Stay tuned…

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Monday Model Update

3/30/26 Monday 11:00 am

Before I get started, here is an update on the second storm. Currently, it looks as if the snow will be limited to the extreme northern portions of the forecast area. However, it ushers in a cold front that will affect all elevations with the chance of a hard freeze.

Heads up: current model forecasts show lows in the low to mid 20s in Durango on Friday and Saturday mornings, and mid to low 20s on Sunday morning.

Hopefully, everfyone took my advice and did not plant!

Storm One

Models that increase precipitation totals within 48 hours of a storm arriving are a reassuring vote of confidence!

That is exactly what is happening!

For reference, use the map below.

Canadian

Canadian GDPS (experimental)

European

 

GFS

German ICON

UKMET

That is a great example of model consistency!

Next update tomorrow morning.

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Monday Morning

3/30/26 Monday 4:30 am

I slept in accidentally and woke up to some updates I need to get installed which puts me a little behind. What I am going to do is wait to upload the new model precipitation totals until the latest model runs are generated. I will have the latest for you before 1 pm.

But here is what I can share briefly. 24 hours ago, the GFS had what looked to be an anomalous model run. That certainly turned out to be the case, because the morning model run came in strong late yesterday morning.

The other good news is that ALL the model runs came in heavier overnight. They are also indicating an early-evening onset of precipitation tomorrow night (instead of after midnight).

All of these factors are increasing my confidence in this event! I will have more details for you in a few hours.

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