8/10/25 Sunday 3:30 am
There are a couple of topics that keep coming up: Winter Forecasts and air quality. So I decided to take these topics on this morning.
The air quality forecasts are something I have done in the past; I am a little embarrassed that I haven’t been posting them more regularly. More than likely, it is because I don’t spend a lot of time out of the house these days (which changes today, more on that later).
Winter Forecasts
First, the Winter Forecasts. Unfortunately, these are, by design, clickbait. Know that going into it. Most are also wrong, including NOAA. Mine are rarely very correct.
Unofficial Networks used to be a kid on YouTube. I lost track of them, but recently got an email with one of their forecasts. It resembles a “Farmer’s Almanac” forecast (not that there is anything wrong with that).
The site was acquired by another company 2 years ago, and they have their sights on becoming a lifestyle brand. The success of OpenSnow led to the acquisition and subsequent changes to their site
Let me say, they are not anything close to OpenSnow. I hate even to use both of their names in the same paragraph.
Here is their latest forecast, grabbing the headlines on social media. Before you look at it, it is intentionally designed to get your attention. But it can’t be accurate as published–Also, the details (that you have to scroll way down to read) don’t agree with what the map shows.
What we have here is a “forecast” rooted in a La Nina prediction. However, they knew they would get more traffic and shares if they showed 99% of the ski resorts in the Rockies with “Average Snow”.
For one thing, we rarely see a winter where everywhere gets average snow. This map shows it from Taos to Mt. Baker. Everyone is a winner here.
Weather media loves to throw La Nina and El Nino around, linking them to extreme events to sell more Generac generators.
I do not get excited about La Nina and El Nino. SW Colorado has historically had its biggest winters in terms of snowfall during ENSO-neutral periods. Enso neutral is precisely what it says. It’s neutral, not La Nina, not El Nino.
Going back to Unofficial Networks, I have no idea how they came up with the idea of a La Nina-esque winter.
The new ENSO forecast will be out next week. Here is the mid-July data.
Zeroing in on winter…
This shows winter beginning with (approximately) a 14% chance of El Nino, a 35% chance of La Nina, and a 51% chance of ENSO neutral. By the end of winter, it predicts a 13% chance of El Nino, a 16% chance of La Nina, and a 71% chance of ENSO neutral conditions.
As I said, the new ENSO update will be out next week, and we will see what it says. This is not enough data to make a solid winter forecast. It is still too early.
Smoke Forecasts
It has been a few years since we had an active wildfire season. As I said earlier, I should have been posting these a month ago.
Here is a zoomed-in, labeled map for reference.
Sorry Pagosa, I should have typed PSA…
Here are the maps in motion for Sunday 5 am through Monday 5 am.
Note that this scale only ranges from 0 to 100. So a value of 60 is higher than a 60 would be on the air quality index scale, which goes from 0 to 500.
Unfortunately, this model comes out midday, so we are constantly dealing with slightly older data.
Regarding my earlier tease about spending more time outdoors. My best shot at doing that is mornings. Susan is strongest for the three hours after she has breakfast. Still, I get nervous leaving her alone.
Yesterday, we made a Walmart trip, her first time in a store in close to a year. We went before it got busy and had mixed results, with three falls, none of which were serious. She was exhausted and overtaxed for the rest of the day, but she was so happy to get out!
I bought some “walkie-talkies” on Amazon the other day. They have a range of 1 to 6 miles, and are very easy for her to use because it is one button to push, and no screens to scroll… Gotta love analog.
I’ve mapped out a walking route in my neighborhood where I’m within a 4/10 mile radius at all times, and she can reach me if needed. I have lost a lot of weight over the last year, but have been lacking cardio. Being able to go for a walk without worries will help me physically as well as mentally!
Next smoke forecast is tomorrow.
Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11
OR
Cash App users: $JGDWG
Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.
