12/31/25 3 pm
Happy New Year’s Eve. Have a great night, I am going to give things another 12 hours to percolate before heading out on the limb…
Wednesday Morning Update
12/30/25 Wednesday 5:15 am
I slept until almost five, which has got to be some sort of record for me this year!
Models are pointing to a complicated solution for Thursday and Friday. Southwest flow starts later today, advecting moisture into Southern California. Moisture moves into Arizona with a heavier “blob” sitting over Las Vegas around 11 pm. Moisture reaches our forecast area by tomorrow morning.
Moisture will be arriving in a dry, hostile environment. As always, the moisture will saturate from the top down. Which is why the higher elevations always get in on the action first.
Flow at some point turns westerly, then transitions to northwesterly, and finally northerly. Accurate, specific forecasts will be impossible with such a small amount of moisture. Timing the arrival of moisture relative to upper-level wind patterns (the storm steering track) is not something the models will be good at, because there is basically no energy in the system (or pulses). This makes any precipitation terrain dependent.
I will likely attempt to put a broad-based blanket forecast on it later today, and will monitor the flow throughout the day tomorrow and Friday in case more moisture shows up during one of the wind flow patterns we are in. For example, if all the moisture appears when we are in a particular flow pattern, I will highlight those areas. Call it an on-the-go forecast.
I know it sounds like gibberish, but that is because it’s an unorganized, weak system entering a hostile (storm-killing) environment.
Another similar system may arrive to start the week, with perhaps something else to talk about towards the end of next week.
I’ll be back…
Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11
OR
Click here to DONATE
Cash App users: $JGDWG
Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.
Click here to submit a question or weather report
Tuesday Update-First Look At New Years Storm
12/30/25 Tuesday 4:30 am
Maybe “Storm” is too ambitious… How about a not-yet-defined precipitation event (NDPE)? Just made that up.
By the way, thanks to all the DIY folks who emailed me about the disposal. Got it up and running again in just a few minutes!
I picked out a couple of interesting maps this morning. Many were not worthy of making the list. The others I picked based on flow. At this point, I am ignoring the precipitation forecasts.
All models show light precipitation breaking out Thursday morning. Snow levels will be a closely guarded secret until the last minute and will likely remain high until the end. So, more of the same…
Maps
European shows SW flow, transitioning to WSW. Here is the problem: with that setup, how can WC be missed? If I were to zoom out, you would see a miss for Crested Butte as well, which always does well with that setup. So problems…
German shows NNW flow transitioning to Westerly, which is why you see higher totals in Montezuma County into western La Plata County. Believable, but likely exaggerated.
HMMM. Classic GFS error, this is Northerly flow (notice the weak gorge event up in Ouray). But then the GFS targets the elevation of the La Platas and somehow delivers 0.30-0.50 inches of liquid in our lower elevations. Highly unlikely in a northerly flow event.
As I said, I am not even looking at the precipitation totals as a forecast, only an indicator. Most models did not make the list. Moisture should begin moving into Arizona late tomorrow, which may give us a clearer view of the forecast. We’ll see.
Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11
OR
Click here to DONATE
Cash App users: $JGDWG
Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.
Click here to submit a question or weather report
Monday Update: The Week Ahead
12/29/25 Monday 5 am
The overall theme in the weather today is poor model performance, and horrible model performance–more on that in a minute.
Not that they have been trustworthy, but the models have been pointing towards another disturbance entering the forecast area around the New Years.
That continues to be the case. I am going to go out on a limb and call it “more of the same”. A couple of weak pulses potentially coming through on Thursday into Friday.
Beyond that, just as we have seen with the MJO. The models have no clue what they are doing. The worst example I have ever seen since I have been doing this showed up when comparing sequential runs from the US GFS model’s “AI-enhanced” version.
First run- yesterday morning’s 5 am run. These are temperature anomalies (what we used to call departure from average).
The white over Minnesota indicates a forecast for 40+ degree positive anomalies for January 9th (40 degrees above average).
Same model, same time period, 6 hours later.
Negative anomalies! 30+ degree negative anomalies ( 30 degrees below average) over the same area. That’s a 70+ degree change in the forecast in 6 hours!
Not all AI models are this reckless. The GFS has, over the last couple of years, developed the worst AI-enhanced weather model.
It’s no wonder the models are struggling with where to place the MJO. For now, it’s still stuck in the weather circle of death.
I am still catching up on emails. I hope to be caught up by tomorrow. Thank you for all the kind words and support!
After my last update, I had one more thing happen I need advice on: the (huge) kitten has discovered the kitchen counters. She knocked a wine glass into the sink, of course, all of the glass went into the garbage disposal. I have been letting it dry out to get my shop vac in there. Does anyone have experience with getting the disposal working again? Or will I need to call a professional and/or purchase a new disposal?
Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11
OR
Click here to DONATE
Cash App users: $JGDWG
Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.
Click here to submit a question or weather report
Saturday Update/Rambles
12/27/25 Saturday 3:30 am
I find myself in the familiar position of sitting in front of a blank screen, trying to conjure up the correct words to get this update started.
The most notable change I see is that NWS reduced the totals for its Winter Weather (sub)Advisory in its latest release to 4 to 8 inches.
Why is that notable? Because Sub Advisories are not a real thing, 1 month into meteorological winter. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories apply only to the areas where they are issued.
A Winter Weather Advisory above 9,000 feet has specific criteria: 6 to 12 inches of snow. A Winter Storm Warning is the next level up. Above 9,000 feet, it means 12 inches or more of snow.
The criteria for lower elevations are different. In our case, 6,000 feet is considered low elevation. In the heart of winter, 3 to 6 inches for a Winter Weather Advisory, 6 to 12 inches for a Winter Storm Warning. Period. That is the standard, pretty much statewide. The exception would be SE Colorado (from Pueblo to Kansas and south to New Mexico).
I gotta stop this old man rant (an OMR moment) before it goes off the rails.
Overnight, the models became clearer about these storms’ intentions. Yesterday, I talked about being skeptical. What I saw early signs of was the tale of two storms. One with SW flow, the other with NW flow. I also saw most of the energy in the SW flow staying mostly south, and the NW storm mainly staying north. This sets up our lower elevations for “mostly a miss”.
The SW flow storm could shift its track but right now the target is SE San Juans with the bullseye just south of Wolf Creek. Most of the colder air does not arrive until Sunday morning and there will likely be a limited amount of moisture left to work with.
At best, we may see a WTI frontal passage (was that it?). I will be very generous and call for 2 to 5 inches of snow from Purgatory up to Coal Bank, Molas and Lizard Head.
Sometimes, when we get those North to South frontal passages it can enhance snow from Ouray to Red Mountain. I would look for potential anomalies there as the temps drop and the liquid-to-snow ratios (LSRs) quickly double. I am not going to go as far as calling it a Gorge Event because it won’t last long enough for that.
Telluride is still a wild card, so I am going to leave it in the 2 to 5 range, upside surprise? Possibly… Lower totals? Possibly…
Wolf Creek still appears to be the best bet for 4 to 8 inches of snow (as I said yesterday). Flurries are already flying across the high country and should increase today.
Overall, another low-impact event for most areas. Exceptions would be the southbound 550 out of Ouray tomorrow morning. And Wolf Creek Pass tonight and tomorrow. Either way, it falls under “normal winter driving conditions”.
OK, I give up. This is what it looks like when I don’t run it through AI, but if I did that, I would have to spend additional time editing AI.
I plan to take a couple of days off from the weather updates to focus on taking care of the household and Sus, catching up on emails, and hopefully a little couch time for me tomorrow. The next best chance of snow will be later in the week or next weekend; however, there is significant uncertainty at the moment.
Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11
OR
Click here to DONATE
Cash App users: $JGDWG
Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.
Click here to submit a question or weather report
Friday Midday
12/26/25 Friday 11 am
To put this in a weather context: “When it rains, it pours.” A saying some of us older folks grew up hearing, which means everything happens all at once. Whatever can go wrong will. I try to keep this blog pretty clean, but you just can’t make this shit up! Sorry.
Susan took a nasty fall this morning and sprained her ankle. Fortunately, she did not break it. But she will be sore for the next couple of days; the ankle pain is overriding the pain from her shoulder that she fell on. That will probably kick in at bedtime.
Bottom line, I am going to be even more time crunched. Tomorrow morning, I will be able to get up early enough to update everyone on the storm I am skeptical of.
Most models show very little, if any, precipitation before Saturday morning.
The biggest benefactor of the upcoming storm (at the moment) looks to be Wolf Creek. Perhaps 4 to 8 inches by Sunday morning. The current model runs keep me skeptical of the northern forecast area’s Winter Weather Advisory from NWS.
Thanks for your patience and understanding. Also, thank you for all of your kind words and outpouring of support. I will be following up on the emails as I am able.
Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11
OR
Click here to DONATE
Cash App users: $JGDWG
Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.
Click here to submit a question or weather report
Friday Morning Quick Update
12/26/25 Friday 3:00 am
I am still trying to “digest” everything that has happened in the last 48 hours, starting with the Doctor appointment, then the change in the weather models, and the very mixed all-or-nothing precipitation results.
Then I wake up to this, the next weather makers.
PLUS THIS
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 204 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025 COZ018-019-262300- /O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0032.251227T0700Z-251228T1700Z/ Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn Pass, Lake City, Silverton, Molas Pass, Coal Bank Pass, Rico, and Hesperus 204 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 9000 feet. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM MST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times.
I look at these:
European
GFS
Canadian
German
HMMMMM
What do they see that I don’t see? I am very skeptical
I may need to issue a Disappointment Advisory for the weekend.
I plan to manage this one with my head not my heart. I have over to 12 hours to figure this out as precipitation is not expected until this evening at the earliest.
Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11
OR
Click here to DONATE
Cash App users: $JGDWG
Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.
Click here to submit a question or weather report
Update On Susan’s Health 5 Months Later
12/25/25 Christmas Day 7 am
My Storm Update was released earlier today. You can scroll down the site to find it, or recheck your email.
I have not updated everyone on Susan’s condition since July. She had her Neurologist appointment yesterday morning. For those of you who are new (since the end of July), here is a link to the last update I sent on her condition on July 23rd, which provides background (rather than rehashing it in a new post).
https://durangoweatherguy.com/2025/07/23/susan-and-jeff-personal-update-no-weather/
Yesterday morning (yes, Christmas Eve), we met the new Neurologist. After getting to know us, I informed her that over the past couple of months, Susan’s aphasia (speech issues) has gotten worse; she experiences more frequent and longer uncontrollable emotional outbreaks, she also falls more than ever before, and she has experienced issues with controlling the right side of her body (she is left-handed).
It started with her right foot. When I would dress her, she could not figure out how to point her foot for me to get it into her pant leg. Then shortly after she started extending her right arm behind her back, bent at the wrist (think olympic speed skater). Now she can’t pick up anything with her right hand, but forgets every time and drops anything she picks up using that hand. Now we have the same problem with the right arm when getting dressed.
The Neurologist ran Susan through a battery of tests. Asked several date-specific questions. She then performed motor skills tests. Only a few minutes into the tests, Susan started crying and shaking; it was too much for her to process.
I asked the Neurologist to interpret what she saw, and she didn’t hesitate. She said, “PBA- Pseudobulbar Affect, she can’t control her emotions because of a disconnect in her brain”.
Interestingly, before running the battery of tests, she reviewed prior brain scans and noticed a gap. I believe she knew what she was looking for before she started the tests.
The Pseudobulbar Affect happens in Parkinson’s disease, ALS, MS, and people with traumatic brain injuries, as well as people with brain tumors and other afflictions related to neurological diseases and disorders.
It is a neurological condition, not a mental health one. It occurs when there is a disconnect between the parts of the brain that feel emotion and those that express it. It is often mistaken and misdiagnosed as depression.
There is one drug approved to treat it; unfortunately, she has to be weaned off one of her current prescriptions before she can start this treatment because they don’t play nicely together.
The Doc also referred her to the Gastroenterology department. She has been struggling with incontinence, which is a difficult situation for her to process and is definitely a new challenge for me.
Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11
OR
Click here to DONATE
Cash App users: $JGDWG
Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.
Click here to submit a question or weather report
Christmas Morning Update
12/25/25 Thursday 4 am
An initial surge of moisture arrived last night. My weather station pinged my phone around 10 pm to let me know it was raining, which was a generous description given the fact that I only received 0.01 inches of rain overnight.
I can actually see the light rain falling on the LOTDW model (Look Out The Dang Window model).
The European model had the best initialization among all overnight model runs. It was released in the last hour or so. It delayed the overnight precipitation until about now. Flurries are occasional at best so far. That same model run shows precipitation increasing over the next couple of hours (we’ll see).
Webcams show very little activity, with occasional flurries and what appears to be poor visibility at Wolf Creek. Not a surprise given that it is 30 degrees up there.
I have to assume the same conditions apply to the other passes, but we no longer have webcams there to verify. Ironically, we now have eight webcams on 550 south of Durango before you reach CR302? Not the time to rant, but…
In the past, when we have had pieces of the storm or multiple systems coming in, I forecast for the event, knowing that the “right for the wrong reason” effect usually comes into play. Meaning, event totals are generally more correct than trying to time out each day. I did not do that this time because more people were on the road traveling to celebrate with loved ones, and I wanted to be more concise.
No surprise: the models now show a much better chance of precipitation over the weekend. The event totals did not change much; however, the 24-hour totals flip-flopped.
The next 24 hours are now expected to be lighter than I forecasted. I will get a chance to redeem myself on Friday for the next batch over the weekend. Then we can focus on the post-New Year’s storm the models are currently trying to decipher.
I didn’t sleep much at all last night. I got some news at Susan’s appointment that I will share in a little later.
Before I jump into that, I have received some comments about my recent use of AI to clean up and breathe “life” into my posts. To clarify, I have always used some form of higher intelligence to edit my posts.
Initially, it was my wife, Susan. She really enjoyed correcting my grammatical errors. Susan was one of those people who loved going to school and had perfect grades. She read several books a month and was very organized and a bit of a clean freak. An ideal match for me over the last three and a half decades, opposites really do attract.
Within 18 months of her diagnosis, she was no longer able to read or write. At that point, I switched to Grammarly AI, mainly as a grammar editor and thesaurus. Lately, I have been using Gemini 3 AI to help organize her treatment plans.
As her condition has worsened over the last couple of months, my ability to churn out uplifting posts in an organized manner has been challenged.
One very early morning, a couple of weeks ago, I started a post that was a bunch of garbage and thought, “Why not have Gemini clean this up for me?”. AI can get lost and is sometimes wrong, so I was concise in the direction I gave it: use my data and information, but present it in a more upbeat tone. Eventually, it suggested formatting changes, saying it would “modernize” the blog.
The changes have concerned some long-time followers, who believe it is no longer me. I assure you, the data is the same from my data providers. The analysis is mine and mine alone. I approve or discard many of the changes AI makes. AI use requires supervision for sure.
I have received more compliments than complaints about the blog’s aesthetics (titles and occasional emojis) and summaries. This is likely due to my readers’ demographics.
Nevertheless, I understand those who are concerned, but I am just trying to stay relevant and upbeat when my sleep deprivation challenges my concentration levels. I assure you, it is still me (emphasis mine).
I am going to jump off right here and create a new post regarding Susan’s new diagnosis and update her friends and followers on her condition. That will be the best way to allow those who want to “opt out” to do so.
I will update everyone tomorrow afternoon on the weekend precipitation outlook. Until then, Merry Christmas, and please cherish those you hold dear, as you never know what the future holds!
Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11
OR
Click here to DONATE
Cash App users: $JGDWG
Prefer ZELLE or send a check? Click below, and I will give you instructions.
Click here to submit a question or weather report
Wednesday Morning Update: An Optimist’s Take
12/24/25 Tuesday 4 am
❄️ Holiday Forecast: A Traveler-Friendly Outlook 🎄
While the massive “monster storms” teased by previous model runs have shifted, we are settling into a much more manageable and travel-friendly pattern for the holiday season. If you have family coming into town or plans to head over the passes, this update is for you!
📍 The “Two-Phase” Game Plan
The models have finally converged on a sequence of events that keeps us active but avoids a total travel standstill:
-
System 1 (Tonight – Friday): Warm moisture arriving from the California atmospheric river. Expect weak southwest flow bringing widespread energy to the region.
-
System 2 (Saturday Night): A colder system arrives from the northwest, helping to drop snow levels and refresh the landscape.
-
The Long View: A third potential system is already appearing on the horizon for just after New Year’s Day!
🚗 Travel & Impact Forecast
From a practical standpoint, this is the ideal solution for holiday commuters. While we won’t see a “Snowpocalypse,” there are still things to keep in mind:
-
Pass Conditions: Expect minor impacts over high mountain passes tonight through Friday.
-
Increased Traffic: With the Christmas rush and weekend travelers, even small amounts of wet snow can cause delays. Give yourself a little extra time!
📏 Expected Totals & Elevations
-
Mountains: Widespread snow amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected.
-
Lower Elevations: Scattered rain and snow showers totaling 0.10″ to 0.40″ of liquid equivalent.
-
Snow Levels: Starting high (above 9,500 feet) with the first warm system, then dropping significantly as the second colder front moves in this weekend.
DWG Bottom Line: We are trading record-breaking snow totals for safe travels and a white Christmas atmosphere. I’ll be back later today with a full “proper forecast” once the latest data is in!