10/25/26 Sunday 4 am-
With the less urgency across the forecast area, I have been looking at long-term model runs. Very interesting; I have already vaguely referred to next weekend’s storm. I am seeing model consensus on timing, but precipitation totals are all over the map, from significant but manageable to dangerous again.
Speaking of dangerous, I thought Shiprock was bad; it was, but look at Bluff. It has not peaked yet.
Devastating…7 pm peak today at 48.4 feet, with a current observation of 20.39 feet!
While yesterday’s main tropical firehose has shifted east, our local radar shows plenty of lingering wrap-around moisture over the area this morning. Expect scattered showers and mountain mix to linger today before we finally get into a dry window this week.
Our residual moisture will also create its own weather today; it won’t take much to fire up a storm or two (wet likes to stay wet). Models are very conservative with the activity and potential totals through this evening. I won’t rely on them too heavily today.
Local radar (7:15 am) shows these showers already moving up from New Mexico again.
Have a good day. I will be keeping an eye on the situation and post as needed