Saturday Mid-Morning Flood Details Please Read

On October 31, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/31/26 Saturday 9:30 am

I’m just posting the forecast Above Flood Stage locations for the time being. The current forecast for the Animas in Durango (both locations) is near Action Stage. I don’t expect it to stay there.

As I have said, these river forecasts lag the latest forecasts. What I have been seeing in the models is snow levels rising tomorrow to near or above 11,000 ft. Snow levels remain high until between 10 pm Sunday and 12 am Monday, when they finally drop below 10,000 feet. Again, that is dependent on the cool front showing up on time.

The weather models are not backing down at all from their aggressive precipitation forecasts

Rain falling tomorrow on last night’s snow may be problematic.

Forecast Above Previous Flood Event

Forecast Above Flood Stage

I will post again this afternoon, or when there are any meaningful changes.

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River Forecast Site Issues- Don’t Buy It!

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

Friday 5 pm

It occurs to me that these stage and flow forecasts are displaying a baseline recession curve. That means they show what would happen without any more rain.

This is what happened with the Dolores River and Mancos River when I woke up cranky and got in trouble (again) this morning. If you missed it, we went two days with CBRFC (NOAA’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) forecasting no problems with the Dolores River, while the experts (local residents) emailed me with their concerns. I woke up at 3 am this morning, and their forecast peak was over action stage.

Dolores locals (many whitewater rafters who understand all of this better than I) tell me they are concerned that, at a certain level, the river will take back its historic floodplain. It’s called channel avulsion. Water doesn’t like to be engineered; eventually, water wins.

In the railroad days of the late 1800s and early 1900s, they literally moved the Dolores River to protect the tracks and support a new town layout.

Then early October 1911, a massive Eastern Pacific Hurricane recurved and turned a firehose over what is now our forecast area (sound familiar?). The Dolores River re-occupied (for a while) its former home.

This was the same storm that flooded Durango in 1911, and Pagosa, and everywhere in our forecast area. The Animas blew right through Durango with 25,000 cfs, washing out the bridges at 15th Street—including the Denver & Rio Grande railroad bridge right where the train used to cross —even after they desperately parked coal railcars on it to try to weigh it down (geniuses)…

Sorry, huge rabbit hole.

Whatever I do, I am not going to talk about the Post Halloween Storm. Yes, Moms and Dads, I looked at the Demons away schedule.

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ANIMAS READ NOW

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10:00 am Friday

Animas in town ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND CLIMBING. Forecast Peak now at 3 pm!

Animas below pump station.RUNNING ABOVE THEORETICAL FLOOD STAGE FORECAST PEAK AT 1 pm

I am monitoring abd will be posting as warranted

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Thursday Morning Updates- Additions To Flood Locations Please Read!

On October 22, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 3 am

For the first time in a while, there are MANY changes to discuss, but they all concern flood potential. I discovered a “vulnerability” (for lack of a better term) on the River Forecast Center site that is very unfriendly to casual users. I will cover that in just a moment. First I want to cover the precipitation models

Going forward for this event, rather than showing all the models, I’m going to show only the European model for a few reasons.

The European was the first model to pick up on this precipitation event days before any other model.
The European was also the first model to pick up on the secondary system that will affect us this weekend.
The European model has more versatile parameters that let me show rainfall left to fall for any given time period.
Tracking the flooding potential will take extra time now that I’ve discovered issues with the River Forecast site.

Here is the latest European showing rain left to fall from 6 am this morning to the last drop Sunday night/Monday morning.

River Forecast Site Issues

Some locations don’t have Flood Stage and Action Stage data. They aren’t flagged as at risk because the data is missing. Some are shown as “normal”; others are listed as “significant rise”- which, ironically, shows a green dot on the location. I say that because they use a yellow dot for “action stage” and a red dot for “flood stage”. So, normal thought progression when you look at that is: red dot=warning; yellow dot=caution; green dot must be safe?

Not so much! When you look at historical data for some of those locations, the current forecast peak is, in some cases, higher than the historical high, yet it is flagged by a green dot!

This definitely answers all the “what about Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos/ etc.” questions we had. As I said, I was as surprised as everyone; now I know why.

New data will be out in 3 hours, I think. They did a model update last night, early evening, a lot of rain has fallen since then… So I will limit this to the new locations. And do a more detailed update mid-morning. The last two days, they have done an update around 8-9 am.

Los Pinos is forecast to hit a historic peak: 6.93 feet with 2806 CFS peaking at 6 am Friday morning. This exceeds the 2019 runoff.

Vallecito Creek is forecast to peak in the top 3 historic flows: 4.22 feet with 2,745 cfs, peaking Friday morning at 6 am.

Durango Pump Station south of town is forecast to reach a historical peak: 8.35 feet with 7401 cfs. ****** The biggest effects will be south of River Oaks, especially heading south on La Posta Rd. Jack Rabbit area and Weaselskin come to mind. Residents in that area should understand the significance of exceeding the prior high set in 2019!*****

Cherry Creek at Red Mesa: No historical data is available. Current observation shows 1.06 feet with 0 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.94 feet with 113 cfs Friday at 6 am.

La Plata River below Cherry Creek near Red Mesa: No historical data available. Current observation: 2.94 feet with 124 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.83 feet with 645 cfs Friday at noon.

Piedra near Arboles: Forecast to hit the 4th highest level in history. Forecast peak 6.21 with 5311 cfs Friday at 6 pm.

I hope to get the latest data and have the Flooding Update out by noon!

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Wednesday Afternoon Model Update

On October 21, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 12:30 pm

The models initialized pretty well on rain start times across the forecast area. That is encouraging or scary depending on your perspective.

While I am thinking about it, keep this in the back of your mind. If you have watched any weather media lately, you have probably heard about Super Typhoon Champi (pronounced Chompy). Champi is big enough that it could recurve all the way from Asia to Alaska’s Bering Sea, wreaking complete havoc on the fishing fleet (probably ending up in next year’s Deadliest Catch episodes).

From there it could slide down the Canadian Coast, then the Pacific Northwest Coast, slide all the way down to the Central/Southern California Coast, and end up as a big storm in our backyards. I don’t have models that track that far yet; this is pure intuition. I might be wrong; I’ll have a better idea in 7-10 days when the models can pick it up.

I got dangerously close to heading down the rabbit hole there…

The WPC NOAA Weather Prediction Center) finally updated their ERO (Excessive Rain Outlook) today; nothing like waiting until the last minute.

Here are the latest crazy model runs. I will not be surprised when the reports are logged if we see totals higher than forecast guidance.

These forecast totals run from 6 am this morning through Sunday night.

T=Telluride C=Cortez M=Mancos D=Durango B=Bayfield P=Pagosa Springs WC=Wolf Creek Pass

NBM

German

GFS AI

European

Canadian

I’ll be back in the morning.

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Wednesday Flood Potential

On October 21, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 9 am

Before I get started, I have received many emails asking about the area in and around Vallecito and Lemon Reservoirs. First, I was as surprised as everyone else. Perhaps it will be more like when than if. We will see.

Los Pinos, Florida, and Vallecito Creek all have gauges and are tracked by the River Forecast Center. I can monitor flows. So if they somehow dont catch the rising flows, I can let everyone know what I am seeing on the near-live observations.

I won’t share the little graph portion anymore, just the data. Two changes: La Plata River at Hesperus and the Animas at Cedar Hill, near the New Mexico border, are now forecast to be above action stage at peak flow. Action stage means you should monitor the situation closely, and you may experience minor flooding in low-lying areas.

All of these peak times are subject to change by NOAA’s River Forecast Center.

On these data boxes next to “Forecast Peak in the parentheses have the projected time and date of the peak. In the example below for Animas Durango, it is (10/24/00z). That is 6 pm Friday.

Animas Durango near Science Center:

Notice the forecast peak has increased and sits (for now) a couple of inches or less below action stage. If you are close to creeks that flow into the Animas, I suggest you come up with a game plan. Or contact the County EMS. This also applies to the Trimble area and areas along 550 between Trimble and Animas City.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	6.97 ft, 7213 cfs (10/24/00Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs
Current Observation:	3.54 ft, 1142 cfs (10/21/14Z)

La Plata River at Hesperus: The forecast peak has increased above the action stage. Peak is forecast for Friday at 6 am

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	5.07 ft, 487 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs
Current Observation:	3.94 ft, 71 cfs (10/21/14Z)

Mancos River in Mancos is no longer on the list. I don’t understand enough about it to explain why. I am just telling you what their models are predicting.

La Plata River at CO/NM state line: Is still right below action stage. The peak is forecast for Friday at noon

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	7.73 ft, 802 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs
Current Observation:	3.62 ft, 10 cfs (10/21/15Z)

Animas River at Cedar Hill near CO/NM border: Forecast peak has increased. It is now above the action stage. Forecast peak is Friday at 10 pm.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	9.59 ft, 7760 cfs (10/24/04Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs
Current Observation:	5.75 ft, 1281 cfs (10/21/15Z)

San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: The forecast peak remains above flood stage. The peak forecast is Friday at 6 am. If this verifies, it will be the 10th highest peak on record for this location. 1 through 8 were decades ago. 9th highest occurred 5/23/2005.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	10.73 ft, 4705 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 4477 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 3487 cfs
Current Observation:	5.51 ft, 470 cfs (10/21/15Z)

My next weather model update will be out around 2-3 pm.

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Tuesday Afternoon Update: Too Big To Ignore!

On October 20, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/20/26 Tuesday Noon

Morning models are slightly slowing the onset of heavy precipitation (again), as expected.

Overview

Nothing meaningful has changed; showers and storms will start moving into the area tomorrow. Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated, more on this in a moment.

Here are the latest precipitation forecast models through Friday night.

NBM

German

Canadian

European

GFS AI- I fired the old original GFS. It is not dependable; it flip-flops all of the time and forecasts scenarios that could never happen with our terrain. I have been tracking the GFS AI for a while, and it is impressive. That’s the first time I have ever used the words GFS and Impressive together.

Time to revisit what I said earlier: “Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated”

That is an understatement. It’s also why I named this post “Too Big To Ignore!”

I have mentioned a couple of times that the Euro doesn’t stop raining on Friday; it continues through Sunday night/Monday morning. All of the other models are now on board with this solution. If this happens, I will have to update all of the flood areas; this could become a big problem. The maps I posted above are for precipitation through Friday night.

If I extend these models through Sunday night. Look at what it does to those totals:

German Model through Sunday night

Canadian Model through Sunday night

European Model through Sunday Night

GFS AI through Sunday night- that is a scary 10 inches of liquid at Wolf Creek Pass. Canadian showed 8.5 inches

To complicate things further, there is a slight chance we could see lower snow levels this weekend.

If you did not read my last update on current areas forecasted to have potential flooding issues, you can read it here: Tuesday Potential Flood Areas To Watch For Event

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Tuesday Potential Flood Areas To Watch For Event

On October 20, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

Tuesday 10:00 am

My weather update will be out this afternoon. But I wanted to get this out ASAP.

So far, these are the areas to keep an eye on: Animas River at Durango, La Plata River at Hesperus, Mancos River at Mancos, Animas River at Cedar Hill, La Plata River at the CO/NM state line, and the worst conditions are forecast to occur at the San Juan River in Pagosa. These are the only 6 so far. I will post any additions or changes. But as I said, so far these are the only ones.

1)Animas River (DRGC2, the bridge next to Powerhouse Science Center). This matters not only for this location but also for the North Valley. The last time I remember us having issues, we hit just over 7 feet. At 6 feet, water can back up Hermosa Creek, Waterfall Creek, and irrigation channels. I specifically remember seeing flooding in the ditches on 550 near Trimble and Hermosa, and (at the time) the old Gliderport. The forecast below shows the Animas hitting 6.5 feet, just below action stage at 7 feet. The flow (so far) is forecast to hit 6,090 cfs. The peak is forecast on Friday at 6 am.

2)La Plata River (Hesperus) Current Forecast is to hit 5 feet, which is action stage. Flow is forecast at 453 cfs. The peak is forecast on Friday at 7 am.

3)Mancos River forecast is 4.81 feet; action stage is 5 feet. Peak flow is forecast at 245 cfs. The current forecast has it peaking Friday at 5 am.

4)Animas at Cedar Hill: forecast is 9.09 feet. Action stage is 9.5 feet with flow at 6,400 cfs. The peak is forecast at 10 pm on Friday.

5)La Plata River at the CO/NM state line: forecast is 7.57 feet. Action stage is 8 feet. Flow is forecast at 735 cfs. Peak is forecast for Friday at 4 pm.

6) San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: Forecast is 10.75 feet. Action stage is 9.5 feet. Flood Stage is 10.5 feet, with flow at 4725 cfs. Forecast Peak is Friday at 5 am.

I am going to get to work on the afternoon update; it should be out by 3 pm.