CBRFC – Durango Weather Guy

10/20/26 Tuesday Noon

Morning models are slightly slowing the onset of heavy precipitation (again), as expected.

Overview

Nothing meaningful has changed; showers and storms will start moving into the area tomorrow. Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated, more on this in a moment.

Here are the latest precipitation forecast models through Friday night.

NBM

German

Canadian

European

GFS AI- I fired the old original GFS. It is not dependable; it flip-flops all of the time and forecasts scenarios that could never happen with our terrain. I have been tracking the GFS AI for a while, and it is impressive. That’s the first time I have ever used the words GFS and Impressive together.

Time to revisit what I said earlier: “Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated”

That is an understatement. It’s also why I named this post “Too Big To Ignore!”

I have mentioned a couple of times that the Euro doesn’t stop raining on Friday; it continues through Sunday night/Monday morning. All of the other models are now on board with this solution. If this happens, I will have to update all of the flood areas; this could become a big problem. The maps I posted above are for precipitation through Friday night.

If I extend these models through Sunday night. Look at what it does to those totals:

German Model through Sunday night

Canadian Model through Sunday night

European Model through Sunday Night

GFS AI through Sunday night- that is a scary 10 inches of liquid at Wolf Creek Pass. Canadian showed 8.5 inches

To complicate things further, there is a slight chance we could see lower snow levels this weekend.

If you did not read my last update on current areas forecasted to have potential flooding issues, you can read it here: Tuesday Potential Flood Areas To Watch For Event

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Tuesday 10:00 am

My weather update will be out this afternoon. But I wanted to get this out ASAP.

So far, these are the areas to keep an eye on: Animas River at Durango, La Plata River at Hesperus, Mancos River at Mancos, Animas River at Cedar Hill, La Plata River at the CO/NM state line, and the worst conditions are forecast to occur at the San Juan River in Pagosa. These are the only 6 so far. I will post any additions or changes. But as I said, so far these are the only ones.

1)Animas River (DRGC2, the bridge next to Powerhouse Science Center). This matters not only for this location but also for the North Valley. The last time I remember us having issues, we hit just over 7 feet. At 6 feet, water can back up Hermosa Creek, Waterfall Creek, and irrigation channels. I specifically remember seeing flooding in the ditches on 550 near Trimble and Hermosa, and (at the time) the old Gliderport. The forecast below shows the Animas hitting 6.5 feet, just below action stage at 7 feet. The flow (so far) is forecast to hit 6,090 cfs. The peak is forecast on Friday at 6 am.

2)La Plata River (Hesperus) Current Forecast is to hit 5 feet, which is action stage. Flow is forecast at 453 cfs. The peak is forecast on Friday at 7 am.

3)Mancos River forecast is 4.81 feet; action stage is 5 feet. Peak flow is forecast at 245 cfs. The current forecast has it peaking Friday at 5 am.

4)Animas at Cedar Hill: forecast is 9.09 feet. Action stage is 9.5 feet with flow at 6,400 cfs. The peak is forecast at 10 pm on Friday.

5)La Plata River at the CO/NM state line: forecast is 7.57 feet. Action stage is 8 feet. Flow is forecast at 735 cfs. Peak is forecast for Friday at 4 pm.

6) San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: Forecast is 10.75 feet. Action stage is 9.5 feet. Flood Stage is 10.5 feet, with flow at 4725 cfs. Forecast Peak is Friday at 5 am.

I am going to get to work on the afternoon update; it should be out by 3 pm.

Durango Weather Guy

Tag: CBRFC