Saturday Afternoon: Flood Warning Extended, Busy Day

On October 24, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 pm-4:15 pm

NWS is all over us with coverage right now, which is great. Thank you!

Here is their latest:

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
331 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

COC007-053-067-252130-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.W.0024.261024T2131Z-261025T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
331 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Northwestern Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southwestern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
  La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...

* WHEN...Until 330 PM MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Numerous roads
  remain closed due to flooding. Low-water crossings are inundated
  with water and may not be passable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 329 PM MDT, local law enforcement reported heavy rain in the
    warned area due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing Between 2
    and 4 inches of rain have fallen since Thursday morning.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the
    warned area. This could cause additional rises within rivers,
    creeks and streams.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, La Plata, Falfa, Oxford, Bondad,
    Hesperus, Breen, Vallecito, Mayday, Kline, Marvel, Tiffany,
    Allison and Redmesa.

Show of hands-especially for long-term followers: Who remembers them ever working La Plata, Falfa, Oxford, Bondad, Breen, Kline, Tiffany, Allison, and Red Mesa into anything they have ever, ever, ever put out?

No sense in doing a model update this afternoon; they have struggled all day long. We will take another look in the morning. I won’t post until then. Unless I need to.

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Saturday Update: Weekend Showers And Thunderstorms

On October 24, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 am- 6:30 am

I haven’t addressed this in a while, but the time I put at the beginning of each post is when I sit down at my desk and start perusing the models. I am trying to get into the habit of putting the time I finish before I hit the publish button.

Overview: Wet likes to stay wet… Showers and thunderstorms today, tonight, and tomorrow, moving out of the area late Sunday. The heaviest rain will fall today.

This should give way to 4 or 5 days of temporarily dry weather while the storm track retreats north of our area.

Then, Friday night into Saturday, models are advertising another multi-day storm. I know. It’s becoming a familiar setup: a west coast low-pressure system combines with tropical moisture and gets funneled into our area. It’s too early to dig into this. I will need to see a couple more days of model runs before I have any confidence in the details

News?

I am not sure when this happened, but the local radar is working; at least in Durango, I noticed it last night. It is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. It picks up the activity below the Grand Junction/National Radar.

“La Plata Live Radar” (these radar screenshots were taken at 5:20 am)

BUT, you can’t rely on it 100%; it has a very limited range, so you need to check both local radar and the site’s Hi-Res Radar. These screenshots were taken at the same time (5:20 am)

“Hi-Res Radar”

To switch between the two, click the layers icon at the top left of the screen, right above the full-screen button. For the La Plata Live Radar, I like to switch to “Dark” mode; for Hi-Res, I leave it on “Satellite” mode.

Fingers crossed it works this well in the winter!

Current Weather

So far, the activity has been spotty, but when the first storm blew up over my neighborhood at 4 am, I got brief heavy rain that dropped 0.20″ in a couple of minutes. The rainfall rate briefly hit 3.57″ per hour.

Since then, I have had occasional on-and-off showers (here comes another one at 6:20 am). It appears the La Plata radar has a little longer lag time than the national radar.

Based upon this early activity, I fear the models are severely underforecasting this weekend event, and I am very concerned! I feel like I am doing a play-by-play here: this latest cell briefly measured rain intensity of 4.09″/hr.

I already have had 0.61″ up here in DW2. It’s going to be a long day!

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River Forecast Site Issues- Don’t Buy It!

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

Friday 5 pm

It occurs to me that these stage and flow forecasts are displaying a baseline recession curve. That means they show what would happen without any more rain.

This is what happened with the Dolores River and Mancos River when I woke up cranky and got in trouble (again) this morning. If you missed it, we went two days with CBRFC (NOAA’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) forecasting no problems with the Dolores River, while the experts (local residents) emailed me with their concerns. I woke up at 3 am this morning, and their forecast peak was over action stage.

Dolores locals (many whitewater rafters who understand all of this better than I) tell me they are concerned that, at a certain level, the river will take back its historic floodplain. It’s called channel avulsion. Water doesn’t like to be engineered; eventually, water wins.

In the railroad days of the late 1800s and early 1900s, they literally moved the Dolores River to protect the tracks and support a new town layout.

Then early October 1911, a massive Eastern Pacific Hurricane recurved and turned a firehose over what is now our forecast area (sound familiar?). The Dolores River re-occupied (for a while) its former home.

This was the same storm that flooded Durango in 1911, and Pagosa, and everywhere in our forecast area. The Animas blew right through Durango with 25,000 cfs, washing out the bridges at 15th Street—including the Denver & Rio Grande railroad bridge right where the train used to cross —even after they desperately parked coal railcars on it to try to weigh it down (geniuses)…

Sorry, huge rabbit hole.

Whatever I do, I am not going to talk about the Post Halloween Storm. Yes, Moms and Dads, I looked at the Demons away schedule.

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More Flood Warnings

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday 4 pm

Thunderstorms are moving into parts of the forecast area. They will become more widespread this evening.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
  
COC007-053-067-242145-  
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.W.0021.261023T2157Z-261024T2145Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/  
ARCHULETA CO-HINSDALE CO-LA PLATA CO-  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
   
..FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY  
  
* WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES.  
  
* WHERE...NORTHWESTERN ARCHULETA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  SOUTHWESTERN HINSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING  
  AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS CONTINUES. SEVERAL STRUCTURES ARE  
  FLOODED, AND NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO WIDESPREAD  
  FLOODING IMPACTS.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - AT 350 PM MDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF  
    DAMAGE AND FLOODING IMPACTS. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN FAST AND HIGH  
    AND WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO  
    1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS  
    DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOPING TOMORROW.  
    PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING  
    AND FLASH FLOODING .  
  - THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...  
    ANIMAS RIVER, LA PLATA, LOS PINOS, AND VALLECITO CREEK.  
  - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
    DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, LA PLATA, FALFA, OXFORD, BONDAD,  
    HESPERUS, BREEN, VALLECITO, MAYDAY, KLINE, MARVEL, TIFFANY,  
    ALLISON AND REDMESA.

I remain on standby…

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ANIMAS READ NOW

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10:00 am Friday

Animas in town ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND CLIMBING. Forecast Peak now at 3 pm!

Animas below pump station.RUNNING ABOVE THEORETICAL FLOOD STAGE FORECAST PEAK AT 1 pm

I am monitoring abd will be posting as warranted

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Friday Morning Update

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday 4 am

Yesterday, in one of my posts, I wrote about the historic flood of 2011. I was off by 100 years. Muscle memory is the culprit. I have been typing 2000s for 26 years, so in my mind I meant 1911, but it came out as 2011. I only heard from a couple of people, so I appreciate them bringing it to my attention as much as I appreciate the thousands of people who overlooked it and knew what I meant.

I am tired and a little cranky. I will do my best to stay on track this morning. But come on CDOT. Nothing like dropping the ball during the big game.

“Sorry, our cameras are out so…”

Besides that, the closures tell the story.

From the CBRFC Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. These are all the sites I need to follow up on, especially the red and yellow dots, but not exclusively.

For the last couple of days, I have been hearing from followers in and near Dolores. Like most long-term residents near rivers, streams, and creeks, they have local knowledge and experience dealing with flood threats.

I am not a hydro=guy, not at all. I hear from a few; one, who asked me not to reveal his name, said I was worried too much about flooding. He tried to tell me that saturated soils absorb precipitation better and that I shouldn’t worry about it. OK.

The last couple of months have exposed me to more heavy-rain threats than I have dealt with in the last 18 years. Now look: DOL (Dolores River at Dolores) and DRR (Dolores River at Rico) made the list today. Guess when the peak forecast time is: Now. Of course, why would anyone want any warning?

That’s the equivalent of the NWS in their forecast discussions saying, “Webcams show snow stakes in the San Juans with 15 inches of snow, so we are raising the forecast to 12-14 inches.” Don’t laugh, I have read that kind of stuff before. We call it “nowcasting”: “It’s raining outside, so we’re increasing our chances of rain to 80% today.”

(Stick with me; long-term followers know when I am tired because I stray off topic quickly, I call it going down the rabbit hole, it usually happens when Sus has a bad day or night)

Caffeine kicking in, RANT OVER (mostly).

NWS just issued a flood warning through 8 am…DUH

Animas Downtown: Currently running above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Noon today

Animas Below Pump Station: Currently running above June 2019 high. Peak forecast: Noon today.

San Juan River at Pagosa: Peak Forecast: Now. Pagosa and Wolf Creek are currently inaccessible because roads are closed.

Piedra at Arboles: Currently running above historical highs. Peak forecast: Now

La Plata River at Hesperus: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: Now

Mancos River at Mancos: Above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Now (another one that made the list while we were sleeping).

Animas River at Cedar Hill: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: 4 pm today. This has been on the list all along.

Animas River at Silverton: Peak forecast now. The forecast peak height is lower than current observations, which are hitting historical levels. This is another location where locals know more than the experts.

Vallecito Creek: Peak Forecast: Now

Los Pinos above Vallecito: Peak forecast 4 hours ago

Thanks for your patience. I am going to regroup. I’ll do a short model update in a moment. Then a more in-depth model update around 1 pm. At the moment, the latest model runs show this next round will be less impactful, but 1 to 3 more inches are possible