Sunday Morning Update

On November 1, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

11/1/26 Saturday

Current Radar

The heaviest rains are yet to come. Right now, they are aimed straight at us. I am not sure if that convective banding will make it up here; if it does, we could get some strong thunderstorms this afternoon

Nothing like watching it rain on the Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and Telluride webcams and snow stakes.

Here are the latest hydrographs. This first batch will be for the most critical locations (Above Flood Stage). So if you don’t see the location you are looking for, it will be in the next batch.

Pagosa got worse, again.

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Saturday Overnight Update:

On October 31, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/31/26 Saturday 3:00 am

Concerns:

Models underforecasted precipitation totals last night and after midnight. Many areas got well over an inch. I have seen totals as high as 1.85″ already. The atmosphere is saturated, and so are our soils. This was supposed to be the weak wave; the heavy stuff should arrive tomorrow.
Overnight models have either stayed the same or are showing higher precipitation totals than yesterday.
NWS is still convinced snow levels will mitigate runoff and downstream danger. Looking at the webcams at Purg and Wolf Creek. and an underwhelming amount of snow has accumulated. Current temp at Wolf Creek is 33. Models indicated overnight lows to be colder at these elevations than what is verifying.
As I said yesterday, snow levels will rise and stay high for most of this event, even if the cold front does not stall (like it usually does). Current indications show snow levels dropping below 10,000 feet late Sunday night (after the bulk of the precipitation has fallen).
The “River People” (CBRFC) have not updated their forecasts in nearly 24 hours- frustrating; hopefully they will be more on top of this tomorrow.
I will be posting often today; stay tuned, hopefully for better news, but I can’t find any right now.

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Thursday Midday Latest & Model Comparisons

On October 29, 2026October 29, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/29/26 Thursday

Quick Note: Models show the storm speeding up through the first half, with 0.30″-0.60″ of liquid precipitation by Saturday afternoon.

Conversely, they are slowing the Sunday system; it may be with us most of Monday.

I continue to see high snow levels of 10,000’+ until the last 6 to 10 hours of the storm. That will make for a difficult snow forecast for anyone trying to figure it out.

The latest from NWS

Hydrologic Outlook
COC007-033-067-083-113-UTC037-302100-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1053 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low pressure begins to dig southward from the PACNW on Friday,
tapping into a fetch of Pacific moisture that will evolve into an
atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday and Saturday across the
region. Lighter rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will reflect,
initially lower, moisture. However, a few thunderstorms could produce
impactful downpours on saturated soils left over from last weekend`s
historic rainfall.

Deeper moisture develops Saturday night and early Sunday. This is
expected to produce heavier and more widespread rainfall across
southeast UT and southwest CO Sunday and Monday, mostly below 10000
feet. While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a
growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated
hillsides in the region. This could produce rock, mud, and debris
flows onto roadways, as well as flash flood prone burn scars, washes,
slot canyons, and arroyos. Early estimates predict an area of 1 to 2
inches of new rainfall for portions of southeast UT and southwest CO.

This is a preliminary forecast that hinges on slight shifts in a
strong moisture plume impacting the region. It also attempts to
capture the most statistically likely outcome, despite stronger and
weaker outlier predictions. Outdoor enthusiasts, motorists, and
residents of recent flood impacted areas are encouraged to remain
abreast of the developing forecast in the coming days.

Finally, at least an acknowledgment. But I have seen no models that show only 1-2 inches of rain. Grand Junction NWS is still downplaying the event, saying the rivers will flow below action stage. Apparently they did not see this:

Keep in mind: bad data in, bad data out, so if they expect this peak with 1-2 inches of rain, what would double do?

I dug deep and found those model runs from before the last event. Overall, the GFS AI and Canadian are very similar to before- remember, those were the most accurate models last time. The similarity ends with the European. I will be watching that closely.

Here are some comparison model runs: current vs. last week.

Current GFS AI

Last week GFS AI

Current Canadian

Last week Canadian

Current European

Last week European

That’s all I have for now. If something changes before the morning, I will jump back on.

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Saturday Afternoon: Flood Warning Extended, Busy Day

On October 24, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 pm-4:15 pm

NWS is all over us with coverage right now, which is great. Thank you!

Here is their latest:

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
331 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

COC007-053-067-252130-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.W.0024.261024T2131Z-261025T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
331 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Northwestern Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southwestern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
  La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...

* WHEN...Until 330 PM MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Numerous roads
  remain closed due to flooding. Low-water crossings are inundated
  with water and may not be passable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 329 PM MDT, local law enforcement reported heavy rain in the
    warned area due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing Between 2
    and 4 inches of rain have fallen since Thursday morning.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the
    warned area. This could cause additional rises within rivers,
    creeks and streams.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, La Plata, Falfa, Oxford, Bondad,
    Hesperus, Breen, Vallecito, Mayday, Kline, Marvel, Tiffany,
    Allison and Redmesa.

Show of hands-especially for long-term followers: Who remembers them ever working La Plata, Falfa, Oxford, Bondad, Breen, Kline, Tiffany, Allison, and Red Mesa into anything they have ever, ever, ever put out?

No sense in doing a model update this afternoon; they have struggled all day long. We will take another look in the morning. I won’t post until then. Unless I need to.

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Saturday Mid Morning Update-Breen/CR 140 Area

On October 24, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

Saturday 10:50 am

A very potent thunderstorm is taking place. I saw the cell on both radars, and a weather station was directly under it.

These cells coming up from New Mexico are getting some orographic lift, which is intensifying them. They are stronger than the one that hit me this morning.

This particular location is south of Breen, just south of Harrison Lane. They already had 2.8″ this morning. I was watching peak rainfall rates of 10.01″ per hour!

Be vigilant; this is what I was concerned about. Cells like this can hit any location in the forecast area!

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More Flood Warnings

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday 4 pm

Thunderstorms are moving into parts of the forecast area. They will become more widespread this evening.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
  
COC007-053-067-242145-  
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.W.0021.261023T2157Z-261024T2145Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/  
ARCHULETA CO-HINSDALE CO-LA PLATA CO-  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
   
..FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY  
  
* WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES.  
  
* WHERE...NORTHWESTERN ARCHULETA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  SOUTHWESTERN HINSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING  
  AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS CONTINUES. SEVERAL STRUCTURES ARE  
  FLOODED, AND NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO WIDESPREAD  
  FLOODING IMPACTS.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - AT 350 PM MDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF  
    DAMAGE AND FLOODING IMPACTS. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN FAST AND HIGH  
    AND WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO  
    1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS  
    DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOPING TOMORROW.  
    PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING  
    AND FLASH FLOODING .  
  - THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...  
    ANIMAS RIVER, LA PLATA, LOS PINOS, AND VALLECITO CREEK.  
  - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
    DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, LA PLATA, FALFA, OXFORD, BONDAD,  
    HESPERUS, BREEN, VALLECITO, MAYDAY, KLINE, MARVEL, TIFFANY,  
    ALLISON AND REDMESA.

I remain on standby…

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Sunday Morning: Crazy Model Consensus: You Need To Read This!

On October 18, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/18/26 Sunday 4 am

I got a great night’s sleep, and I feel better than I have in over a week. I say that because I want everybody to know I am looking at these models with my brain firing at full capacity.

I add that disclaimer because I want people to know that I am very serious when I say. SW Colorado, we may have a problem.

I am not hearing enough chatter about this precipitation event. This looks a lot bigger than the last one. Streams and rivers had a short period of time to recede, but they’re starting from an elevated baseline—meaning this next round will hit saturated ground and high channels very quickly.

At this point, I urge Cities’ EMS and even CDOT to start looking at the potential impacts this event could have on our area.

As I said, I have never seen such overwhelming model consensus on an incoming storm in all my years doing this. I am not trying to scare anybody, but as I said, nobody is talking about this. The NWS had one sentence in their discussion about “the possibility of substantial rain in the four corners mid to late week”. I don’t think that goes far enough.

I just don’t want anyone to be caught off guard. Those of you who live in areas affected by flash flooding or flooding need to at least think about how to prepare.

I don’t know all of the vulnerable locations in the six-county area. But you residents do. Don’t wait for the Wednesday morning Herald article quoting an NWS forecaster from a Tuesday phone call.

I have many models to share. I haven’t been able to share these other models because they are shorter-term. But now, their range is finally within the event’s envelope.

I also think it’s important to note that most locations have exceeded the models’ forecasts over the last 6 weeks.

GFS- it’s still struggling. None of the others are. The precipitation spread makes no sense for any approaching storm in any conditions, ever. But I will leave it in here as an outlier.

European

NOAA NBM: This is a big deal, because this is almost always the most conservative model.

NOAA WPC (Weather Prediction Center)

UKMET (NOAA equivalent in the UK)

Canadian

ICON (Germany)

Again, I am not trying to be an alarmist. But the fact that even the NWS Grand Junction is only giving one sentence about this, that is easy to skim right over, is concerning to me.