Tag: flood watch

Sunday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguy

 

11/1/26 Saturday

Current Radar

The heaviest rains are yet to come. Right now, they are aimed straight at us. I am not sure if that convective banding will make it up here; if it does, we could get some strong thunderstorms this afternoon

Nothing like watching it rain on the Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and Telluride webcams and snow stakes.

Here are the latest hydrographs. This first batch will be for the most critical locations (Above Flood Stage). So if you don’t see the location you are looking for, it will be in the next batch.

Pagosa got worse, again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Saturday Afternoon-Wrap Up

On By durangoweatherguy

10/31/26 Saturday 2:00 pm

I have been waiting and hoping that the river people update their forecasts. But it does not look like that is going to happen. I hope they have more updates tomorrow than 1. That would be irresponsible given the situation, especially Pagosa, forecast to hit 4 1/2 feet above “Major Flooding Stage” with 11,432 cfs (flood stage is 4476 cfs)

About 40 minutes after my preliminary update on the areas forecast to exceed prior flood levels, NWS GJT put out flood warnings for affected areas. Nice to see them changing their tune (again).

I have a couple of models to share: one I have used before, the other- not before current pre-storm prep.

First, the NBM: I have used it a lot over the last few weeks. It is a high-resolution model that smooths low-resolution multi-model solutions. The good about that is it takes multiple model runs from “model members”.– Got very close to the rabbit hole there. Why do they call it that? Do rabbits live in a hole?- See, I told you.

I will save all of that for a boring weather post; it’s a good idea to talk about the differences between the weather models.

Been awake since 1 am, not an excuse-anyway.

Here is the NBM

These totals are higher than yesterday’s, before last night’s/overnight’s precipitation. It does a good job with elevation (un)smoothing.

I have not mentioned this before, but look at the bottom right of the precip map. See that “Max 6.78″? You can match that with the colors; in this case, the three potential areas that the models predict that 6.78” of liquid equivalent precipitation could fall are La Platas, Wolf Creek, or the Southeast San Juans (south of Wolf Creek).

Now another new one in the lineup. It’s an experimental NOAA model ready to officially replace the NAM3k next year.

It is RRFS  (Rapid Refresh Forecast System); NOAA calls it “next generation”. I can’t confirm its accuracy yet; I haven’t spent enough time with it, and I’m anxious to see how it verifies. Right now, it could be my favorite model, especially this winter.

It is a convection-allowing model suite built on an FV3 dynamical core… I did it again.

Here it is, bottom line: my first reaction was that the model handles elevation in our area the way it really is. You may have heard me say in the past, “this model run is impressive, but there is absolutely no way this could possibly happen”. This model is exactly the opposite.

Look up by Purgatory: It actually registers the lower elevation at Purgatory at 550 versus the peaks on either side. Same thing with Animas heading up to Silverton.

My biggest concerns are the bullseyes where we don’t need them-Above Vallecito, Wolf Creek, and the La Platas.

Very excited about turning the clocks back; that means I get model data an hour earlier! (nerd)

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Saturday Overnight Update:

On By durangoweatherguy

10/31/26 Saturday 3:00 am

Concerns:

  • Models underforecasted precipitation totals last night and after midnight. Many areas got well over an inch. I have seen totals as high as 1.85″ already. The atmosphere is saturated, and so are our soils. This was supposed to be the weak wave; the heavy stuff should arrive tomorrow.
  • Overnight models have either stayed the same or are showing higher precipitation totals than yesterday.
  • NWS is still convinced snow levels will mitigate runoff and downstream danger. Looking at the webcams at Purg and Wolf Creek. and an underwhelming amount of snow has accumulated. Current temp at Wolf Creek is 33.  Models indicated overnight lows to be colder at these elevations than what is verifying.
  • As I said yesterday, snow levels will rise and stay high for most of this event, even if the cold front does not stall (like it usually does). Current indications show snow levels dropping below 10,000 feet late Sunday night (after the bulk of the precipitation has fallen).
  • The “River People” (CBRFC) have not updated their forecasts in nearly 24 hours- frustrating; hopefully they will be more on top of this tomorrow.
  • I will be posting often today; stay tuned, hopefully for better news, but I can’t find any right now.

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Friday Morning Update: Early Flood Information And Model Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/30/26 Friday 5:00 am

Changes:

  • Flood Watch Issued
  • Models continue to speed up the onset of the first batch of precipitation, now expected to arrive tonight and depart Saturday afternoon-Dry for trick-or-treating? Maybe…
  • Models are increasing their forecast for the first batch of precipitation, now expecting 0.50″-0.80″ by Saturday afternoon.
  • The main system is expected to linger until Monday afternoon in the lower and mid-elevations and until Monday night in the higher elevations.
  • Snow levels will be slightly lower tonight and tomorrow than on Sunday, so in some cases, rain on snow, which is not good.
  • Snow levels are finally forecast to drop late Sunday into Monday morning (unless the cold front stalls, which it usually does)

Here is the Excessive Rain Outlook (ERO) from the Weather Prediction Center for Sunday Morning through Monday morning: We don’t often see such a high risk.

Here is a list of the rivers and locations already forecast to be at or above action stage by (or before) Monday; this list will likely get much longer.

San Juan River at Pagosa, Mancos River at Mancos, La Plata River at Hesperus, La Plata River at State line, La Plata River at Farmington, Animas River at Cedar Hill, Animas River at Farmington, Los Pinos near Vallecito, Navajo at Chromo.

I am not going to load the hydrographs yet because it’s all going to change…

Models: From low to high

European

German

WPC: If you look real close, there is a 5.33″ bullseye right over La Platas

UKMET

GFS AI

Canadian

I will be back around 1 pm. Looks like another busy weekend!

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Friday Morning: From Denial To Flood Watch: NWS GJT Plays Catch-Up On Incoming Surge (Again)

On By durangoweatherguy

10/30/26  Friday 4:00 am

The last two days weve heard this:

“Chances for river flooding remains low at this point, as these totals will be spread
over an almost 48 hour period.”  “River flooding continues to look unlikely
at these values spread over 48 hours.”   “River flooding seems unlikely, but localized impacts due to rainfall on saturated soils are expected.”  “While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated hillsides in the region.”

Now This:

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
942 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

COZ019-021>023-UTZ022-028-029-302100-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.A.0011.261101T1200Z-261102T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-
Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-La Sal and
Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
Including the cities of Pagosa Springs, Silverton, Rico, Cortez,
Mancos, Dolores, Dove Creek, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, Blanding,
Oljato-Monument Valley, Goulding, Bluff, Tselakai Dezza, Aneth,
Montezuma Creek, Mexican Hat, Halchita, White Mesa, Monticello, La
Sal, Eastland, Spanish Valley, Fry Canyon, and Canyonlands National
Park
942 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, San
  Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains and southeast
  Utah, including the following areas, Canyonlands/Natural Bridges,
  La Sal and Abajo Mountains and Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, recently burned areas, and other low-lying and
  flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm
  drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

Things are changing quickly while the CBRFC (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) plays catch up with their river peak and flow forecasts. I will have a more detailed update out soon!

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Thursday Midday Latest & Model Comparisons

On By durangoweatherguy

10/29/26  Thursday

Quick Note: Models show the storm speeding up through the first half, with 0.30″-0.60″ of liquid precipitation by Saturday afternoon.

Conversely, they are slowing the Sunday system; it may be with us most of Monday.

I continue to see high snow levels of 10,000’+ until the last 6 to 10 hours of the storm. That will make for a difficult snow forecast for anyone trying to figure it out.

The latest from NWS

Hydrologic Outlook
COC007-033-067-083-113-UTC037-302100-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1053 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low pressure begins to dig southward from the PACNW on Friday,
tapping into a fetch of Pacific moisture that will evolve into an
atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday and Saturday across the
region. Lighter rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will reflect,
initially lower, moisture. However, a few thunderstorms could produce
impactful downpours on saturated soils left over from last weekend`s
historic rainfall.

Deeper moisture develops Saturday night and early Sunday. This is
expected to produce heavier and more widespread rainfall across
southeast UT and southwest CO Sunday and Monday, mostly below 10000
feet. While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a
growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated
hillsides in the region. This could produce rock, mud, and debris
flows onto roadways, as well as flash flood prone burn scars, washes,
slot canyons, and arroyos. Early estimates predict an area of 1 to 2
inches of new rainfall for portions of southeast UT and southwest CO.

This is a preliminary forecast that hinges on slight shifts in a
strong moisture plume impacting the region. It also attempts to
capture the most statistically likely outcome, despite stronger and
weaker outlier predictions. Outdoor enthusiasts, motorists, and
residents of recent flood impacted areas are encouraged to remain
abreast of the developing forecast in the coming days.

Finally, at least an acknowledgment. But I have seen no models that show only 1-2 inches of rain. Grand Junction NWS is still downplaying the event, saying the rivers will flow below action stage.  Apparently they did not see this:

Keep in mind: bad data in, bad data out, so if they expect this peak with 1-2 inches of rain, what would double do?

I dug deep and found those model runs from before the last event. Overall, the GFS AI and Canadian are very similar to before- remember, those were the most accurate models last time. The similarity ends with the European. I will be watching that closely.

 

Here are some comparison model runs: current vs. last week.

Current GFS AI

Last week GFS AI

 

 

Current Canadian

Last week Canadian

Current European

Last week European

That’s all I have for now. If something changes before the morning, I will jump back on.

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Friday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday  4 am

Yesterday, in one of my posts, I wrote about the historic flood of 2011. I was off by 100 years. Muscle memory is the culprit. I have been typing 2000s for 26 years, so in my mind I meant 1911, but it came out as 2011. I only heard from a couple of people, so I appreciate them bringing it to my attention as much as I appreciate the thousands of people who overlooked it and knew what I meant.

I am tired and a little cranky. I will do my best to stay on track this morning. But come on CDOT. Nothing like dropping the ball during the big game.

“Sorry, our cameras are out so…”

Besides that, the closures tell the story.

From the CBRFC Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. These are all the sites I need to follow up on, especially the red and yellow dots, but not exclusively.

For the last couple of days, I have been hearing from followers in and near Dolores. Like most long-term residents near rivers, streams, and creeks, they have local knowledge and experience dealing with flood threats.

I am not a hydro=guy, not at all. I hear from a few; one, who asked me not to reveal his name, said I was worried too much about flooding. He tried to tell me that saturated soils absorb precipitation better and that I shouldn’t worry about it. OK.

The last couple of months have exposed me to more heavy-rain threats than I have dealt with in the last 18 years. Now look: DOL (Dolores River at Dolores) and DRR (Dolores River at Rico) made the list today. Guess when the peak forecast time is: Now. Of course, why would anyone want any warning?

That’s the equivalent of the NWS in their forecast discussions saying, “Webcams show snow stakes in the San Juans with 15 inches of snow, so we are raising the forecast to 12-14 inches.” Don’t laugh, I have read that kind of stuff before. We call it “nowcasting”: “It’s raining outside, so we’re increasing our chances of rain to 80% today.”

(Stick with me; long-term followers know when I am tired because I stray off topic quickly, I call it going down the rabbit hole, it usually happens when Sus has a bad day or night)

Caffeine kicking in, RANT OVER (mostly).

NWS just issued a flood warning through 8 am…DUH

Animas Downtown: Currently running above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Noon today

Animas Below Pump Station: Currently running above June 2019 high. Peak forecast: Noon today.

San Juan River at Pagosa: Peak Forecast: Now. Pagosa and Wolf Creek are currently inaccessible because roads are closed.

Piedra at Arboles: Currently running above historical highs. Peak forecast: Now

La Plata River at Hesperus: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: Now

Mancos River at Mancos: Above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Now (another one that made the list while we were sleeping).

Animas River at Cedar Hill: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: 4 pm today. This has been on the list all along. 

Animas River at Silverton: Peak forecast now. The forecast peak height is lower than current observations, which are hitting historical levels. This is another location where locals know more than the experts.

Vallecito Creek: Peak Forecast: Now

Los Pinos above Vallecito: Peak forecast 4 hours ago

Thanks for your patience. I am going to regroup. I’ll do a short model update in a moment. Then a more in-depth model update around 1 pm. At the moment, the latest model runs show this next round will be less impactful, but 1 to 3 more inches are possible

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Thursday Late Afternoon Flood Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 3:30 pm

I should not do this but I am questioning the peak times, they have not changed, that tells me they might be chasing data, I will leave it at that.

Animas Durango: Above Action Stage, at Flood Stage 8ft (within 3/4 of an inch) with 9825 cfs, which well exceeds 2019 and would be ranked 7th in history

Animas at Durango Below Pump Plant: Forecast is higher than ever recorded since records were kept (18 years). If you missed my other updates big concerns for the lowest lying residents in River Oaks and folks living off of east of La Posta road. Weaselskin, Jack Rabbit etc.

San Juan at Pagosa Springs: YIKES

Vallecito Creek: We are creeping up on last year.

Los Pinos Above Vallecito: This exceeds both days in October last year on the provisional site.

 

Animas at Cedar Hill: Exceeding flood stage

La Plata River at State Line: 

La Plata River at Hesperus:

I would not be surprised at all if these NOAA River Forecast folks have a very long night. I will do my best to keep up. Have not covered an historic event in a while!

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Update Coming Soon Big Changes In Flood Forecasts

On By durangoweatherguy

3:00 pm

I wanted to get this out so you can check the site or your email later. I am not sure how long this update will take to write, but it’s a big deal: the Animas (downtown) will exceed Action Stage and be less than an inch from flood stage by noon tomorrow.

 

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Thursday Model Update: Flood Warning-Current Concerns

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/2026 Thursday 12:20 pm

OK, no break. As soon as I hit publish, this came out:

 

Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
1218 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by thunderstorms and excessive rainfall is
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...

* WHEN...Until midnight MDT Tonight.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Streams
  continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1212 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
    heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in
    the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen over
    the last 24 hours.
  - This includes but is not limited to the following streams...
    Vallecito Creek, La Plata River, Animas River and many creeks and
    tributaries that feed into these rivers.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Durango, La Plata, Falfa, Hesperus, Bondad, Breen, Mayday, Kline,
    Marvel, Redmesa and Vallecito.

I am glad they did this, BUT the existing Flood Watch expires tomorrow at noon. Do you want to know what’s not going to expire? The rain!

The Flood Watch reads like flood danger will be over by noon tomorrow. You can’t just flip a switch and end it.  It looks like we may see a short lull tomorrow afternoon before the second part rolls in very late Friday night/very early Saturday morning. Here are the latest forecast totals between noon today and Monday morning.

The point is, the danger doesn’t go away when this flood watch does! I hope (nudge nudge) they issue an overlapping Flood Watch for the weekend, because ending this one without following up on the weekend sends the wrong message.

I am going to try to post another flood update after CBRFG updates their forecasts later today. At least the crucial ones.

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