Saturday Afternoon: Flood Warning Extended, Busy Day

On October 24, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 pm-4:15 pm

NWS is all over us with coverage right now, which is great. Thank you!

Here is their latest:

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
331 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

COC007-053-067-252130-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.W.0024.261024T2131Z-261025T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
331 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Northwestern Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southwestern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
  La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...

* WHEN...Until 330 PM MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Numerous roads
  remain closed due to flooding. Low-water crossings are inundated
  with water and may not be passable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 329 PM MDT, local law enforcement reported heavy rain in the
    warned area due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing Between 2
    and 4 inches of rain have fallen since Thursday morning.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the
    warned area. This could cause additional rises within rivers,
    creeks and streams.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, La Plata, Falfa, Oxford, Bondad,
    Hesperus, Breen, Vallecito, Mayday, Kline, Marvel, Tiffany,
    Allison and Redmesa.

Show of hands-especially for long-term followers: Who remembers them ever working La Plata, Falfa, Oxford, Bondad, Breen, Kline, Tiffany, Allison, and Red Mesa into anything they have ever, ever, ever put out?

No sense in doing a model update this afternoon; they have struggled all day long. We will take another look in the morning. I won’t post until then. Unless I need to.

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Friday Morning Update

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday 4 am

Yesterday, in one of my posts, I wrote about the historic flood of 2011. I was off by 100 years. Muscle memory is the culprit. I have been typing 2000s for 26 years, so in my mind I meant 1911, but it came out as 2011. I only heard from a couple of people, so I appreciate them bringing it to my attention as much as I appreciate the thousands of people who overlooked it and knew what I meant.

I am tired and a little cranky. I will do my best to stay on track this morning. But come on CDOT. Nothing like dropping the ball during the big game.

“Sorry, our cameras are out so…”

Besides that, the closures tell the story.

From the CBRFC Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. These are all the sites I need to follow up on, especially the red and yellow dots, but not exclusively.

For the last couple of days, I have been hearing from followers in and near Dolores. Like most long-term residents near rivers, streams, and creeks, they have local knowledge and experience dealing with flood threats.

I am not a hydro=guy, not at all. I hear from a few; one, who asked me not to reveal his name, said I was worried too much about flooding. He tried to tell me that saturated soils absorb precipitation better and that I shouldn’t worry about it. OK.

The last couple of months have exposed me to more heavy-rain threats than I have dealt with in the last 18 years. Now look: DOL (Dolores River at Dolores) and DRR (Dolores River at Rico) made the list today. Guess when the peak forecast time is: Now. Of course, why would anyone want any warning?

That’s the equivalent of the NWS in their forecast discussions saying, “Webcams show snow stakes in the San Juans with 15 inches of snow, so we are raising the forecast to 12-14 inches.” Don’t laugh, I have read that kind of stuff before. We call it “nowcasting”: “It’s raining outside, so we’re increasing our chances of rain to 80% today.”

(Stick with me; long-term followers know when I am tired because I stray off topic quickly, I call it going down the rabbit hole, it usually happens when Sus has a bad day or night)

Caffeine kicking in, RANT OVER (mostly).

NWS just issued a flood warning through 8 am…DUH

Animas Downtown: Currently running above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Noon today

Animas Below Pump Station: Currently running above June 2019 high. Peak forecast: Noon today.

San Juan River at Pagosa: Peak Forecast: Now. Pagosa and Wolf Creek are currently inaccessible because roads are closed.

Piedra at Arboles: Currently running above historical highs. Peak forecast: Now

La Plata River at Hesperus: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: Now

Mancos River at Mancos: Above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Now (another one that made the list while we were sleeping).

Animas River at Cedar Hill: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: 4 pm today. This has been on the list all along.

Animas River at Silverton: Peak forecast now. The forecast peak height is lower than current observations, which are hitting historical levels. This is another location where locals know more than the experts.

Vallecito Creek: Peak Forecast: Now

Los Pinos above Vallecito: Peak forecast 4 hours ago

Thanks for your patience. I am going to regroup. I’ll do a short model update in a moment. Then a more in-depth model update around 1 pm. At the moment, the latest model runs show this next round will be less impactful, but 1 to 3 more inches are possible

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Thursday Model Update: Flood Warning-Current Concerns

On October 22, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/22/2026 Thursday 12:20 pm

OK, no break. As soon as I hit publish, this came out:

Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
1218 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by thunderstorms and excessive rainfall is
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...

* WHEN...Until midnight MDT Tonight.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Streams
  continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1212 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
    heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in
    the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen over
    the last 24 hours.
  - This includes but is not limited to the following streams...
    Vallecito Creek, La Plata River, Animas River and many creeks and
    tributaries that feed into these rivers.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Durango, La Plata, Falfa, Hesperus, Bondad, Breen, Mayday, Kline,
    Marvel, Redmesa and Vallecito.

I am glad they did this, BUT the existing Flood Watch expires tomorrow at noon. Do you want to know what’s not going to expire? The rain!

The Flood Watch reads like flood danger will be over by noon tomorrow. You can’t just flip a switch and end it. It looks like we may see a short lull tomorrow afternoon before the second part rolls in very late Friday night/very early Saturday morning. Here are the latest forecast totals between noon today and Monday morning.

The point is, the danger doesn’t go away when this flood watch does! I hope (nudge nudge) they issue an overlapping Flood Watch for the weekend, because ending this one without following up on the weekend sends the wrong message.

I am going to try to post another flood update after CBRFG updates their forecasts later today. At least the crucial ones.

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Wednesday Afternoon Model Update

On October 21, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 12:30 pm

The models initialized pretty well on rain start times across the forecast area. That is encouraging or scary depending on your perspective.

While I am thinking about it, keep this in the back of your mind. If you have watched any weather media lately, you have probably heard about Super Typhoon Champi (pronounced Chompy). Champi is big enough that it could recurve all the way from Asia to Alaska’s Bering Sea, wreaking complete havoc on the fishing fleet (probably ending up in next year’s Deadliest Catch episodes).

From there it could slide down the Canadian Coast, then the Pacific Northwest Coast, slide all the way down to the Central/Southern California Coast, and end up as a big storm in our backyards. I don’t have models that track that far yet; this is pure intuition. I might be wrong; I’ll have a better idea in 7-10 days when the models can pick it up.

I got dangerously close to heading down the rabbit hole there…

The WPC NOAA Weather Prediction Center) finally updated their ERO (Excessive Rain Outlook) today; nothing like waiting until the last minute.

Here are the latest crazy model runs. I will not be surprised when the reports are logged if we see totals higher than forecast guidance.

These forecast totals run from 6 am this morning through Sunday night.

T=Telluride C=Cortez M=Mancos D=Durango B=Bayfield P=Pagosa Springs WC=Wolf Creek Pass

NBM

German

GFS AI

European

Canadian

I’ll be back in the morning.

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Wednesday Flood Potential

On October 21, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 9 am

Before I get started, I have received many emails asking about the area in and around Vallecito and Lemon Reservoirs. First, I was as surprised as everyone else. Perhaps it will be more like when than if. We will see.

Los Pinos, Florida, and Vallecito Creek all have gauges and are tracked by the River Forecast Center. I can monitor flows. So if they somehow dont catch the rising flows, I can let everyone know what I am seeing on the near-live observations.

I won’t share the little graph portion anymore, just the data. Two changes: La Plata River at Hesperus and the Animas at Cedar Hill, near the New Mexico border, are now forecast to be above action stage at peak flow. Action stage means you should monitor the situation closely, and you may experience minor flooding in low-lying areas.

All of these peak times are subject to change by NOAA’s River Forecast Center.

On these data boxes next to “Forecast Peak in the parentheses have the projected time and date of the peak. In the example below for Animas Durango, it is (10/24/00z). That is 6 pm Friday.

Animas Durango near Science Center:

Notice the forecast peak has increased and sits (for now) a couple of inches or less below action stage. If you are close to creeks that flow into the Animas, I suggest you come up with a game plan. Or contact the County EMS. This also applies to the Trimble area and areas along 550 between Trimble and Animas City.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	6.97 ft, 7213 cfs (10/24/00Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs
Current Observation:	3.54 ft, 1142 cfs (10/21/14Z)

La Plata River at Hesperus: The forecast peak has increased above the action stage. Peak is forecast for Friday at 6 am

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	5.07 ft, 487 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs
Current Observation:	3.94 ft, 71 cfs (10/21/14Z)

Mancos River in Mancos is no longer on the list. I don’t understand enough about it to explain why. I am just telling you what their models are predicting.

La Plata River at CO/NM state line: Is still right below action stage. The peak is forecast for Friday at noon

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	7.73 ft, 802 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs
Current Observation:	3.62 ft, 10 cfs (10/21/15Z)

Animas River at Cedar Hill near CO/NM border: Forecast peak has increased. It is now above the action stage. Forecast peak is Friday at 10 pm.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	9.59 ft, 7760 cfs (10/24/04Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs
Current Observation:	5.75 ft, 1281 cfs (10/21/15Z)

San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: The forecast peak remains above flood stage. The peak forecast is Friday at 6 am. If this verifies, it will be the 10th highest peak on record for this location. 1 through 8 were decades ago. 9th highest occurred 5/23/2005.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	10.73 ft, 4705 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 4477 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 3487 cfs
Current Observation:	5.51 ft, 470 cfs (10/21/15Z)

My next weather model update will be out around 2-3 pm.

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Tuesday Potential Flood Areas To Watch For Event

On October 20, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

Tuesday 10:00 am

My weather update will be out this afternoon. But I wanted to get this out ASAP.

So far, these are the areas to keep an eye on: Animas River at Durango, La Plata River at Hesperus, Mancos River at Mancos, Animas River at Cedar Hill, La Plata River at the CO/NM state line, and the worst conditions are forecast to occur at the San Juan River in Pagosa. These are the only 6 so far. I will post any additions or changes. But as I said, so far these are the only ones.

1)Animas River (DRGC2, the bridge next to Powerhouse Science Center). This matters not only for this location but also for the North Valley. The last time I remember us having issues, we hit just over 7 feet. At 6 feet, water can back up Hermosa Creek, Waterfall Creek, and irrigation channels. I specifically remember seeing flooding in the ditches on 550 near Trimble and Hermosa, and (at the time) the old Gliderport. The forecast below shows the Animas hitting 6.5 feet, just below action stage at 7 feet. The flow (so far) is forecast to hit 6,090 cfs. The peak is forecast on Friday at 6 am.

2)La Plata River (Hesperus) Current Forecast is to hit 5 feet, which is action stage. Flow is forecast at 453 cfs. The peak is forecast on Friday at 7 am.

3)Mancos River forecast is 4.81 feet; action stage is 5 feet. Peak flow is forecast at 245 cfs. The current forecast has it peaking Friday at 5 am.

4)Animas at Cedar Hill: forecast is 9.09 feet. Action stage is 9.5 feet with flow at 6,400 cfs. The peak is forecast at 10 pm on Friday.

5)La Plata River at the CO/NM state line: forecast is 7.57 feet. Action stage is 8 feet. Flow is forecast at 735 cfs. Peak is forecast for Friday at 4 pm.

6) San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: Forecast is 10.75 feet. Action stage is 9.5 feet. Flood Stage is 10.5 feet, with flow at 4725 cfs. Forecast Peak is Friday at 5 am.

I am going to get to work on the afternoon update; it should be out by 3 pm.