Tag: La Plata County

Friday Morning Update: Slight Concerns With Higher Totals

On By durangoweatherguy

11/13/26 Friday 4:30 am

I nailed my sleep last night, so I’m well rested and thinking more clearly this morning than yesterday.

Yesterday I talked about the RRFS model. I said that model has everything I need in its core to help me produce better forecasts in our highly varied terrain.

As far as I can see, past model runs from the RRFS were, and still are, producing more precipitation from the Saturday storm than the other models.

I am also seeing higher snow levels at the start of the storm than the other models. The RRFS shows rain up to the 9,500 ft level until about 8 am tomorrow.

I know what you’re thinking, so let me say that, at the moment, I see no evidence of widespread flooding. However, there is one area I am concerned about: Los Pinos below Vallecito. With the active (apparent) release still taking place, I hope there is no complacency going into tomorrow’s underforecasted storm.

As I said when we were dealing with the flooding, I am not a hydro guy; the residents along the rivers have helped better educate me on local nuances.

But here is the RRFS total liquid precipitation forecast accumulation by 8 am tomorrow.

Zoomed in

If you look at the NE portion of La Plata County, you can see bullseyes up to an inch above Vallecito in roughly 4-6 hours. If that is manageable, that is great. But I hope the right people aren’t counting on less precipitation, as most models have been showing all week. But as I said earlier, the other models seem to be increasing their totals run by run to catch up with the RRFS.

There is a bullseye in the La Plata as well, which should not affect the Animas, but it may raise the levels of its tributaries. However, the snow level will lower earlier over the La Platas than the NE part of the county.

So I am not sending out a panic call here, but I would say those living along these creeks should continue to be vigilant.

This is a perfect place for me to stop, as I am running a little behind schedule on the home front. My afternoon update will be out before 2 pm.

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Sunday Mid Morning Update: Second Batch And A Couple Scary Model Runs

On By durangoweatherguy

11/1/26  Sunday 9 am

These are all going to change. I just don’t know how often the river people will update today. I can’t imagine that, in the midst of historic flooding, they’d wait another 12 hours of the event’s heaviest rain to do another update.

Dolores: They didn’t update the data for lower or Rico locations. I did not leave you out intentionally.

 

 

 

These were the most accurate models with the last flood; These are their forecast totals from 5 am this morning to last drop and flake.

Canadian

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Sunday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguy

 

11/1/26 Saturday

Current Radar

The heaviest rains are yet to come. Right now, they are aimed straight at us. I am not sure if that convective banding will make it up here; if it does, we could get some strong thunderstorms this afternoon

Nothing like watching it rain on the Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and Telluride webcams and snow stakes.

Here are the latest hydrographs. This first batch will be for the most critical locations (Above Flood Stage). So if you don’t see the location you are looking for, it will be in the next batch.

Pagosa got worse, again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Saturday Afternoon-Wrap Up

On By durangoweatherguy

10/31/26 Saturday 2:00 pm

I have been waiting and hoping that the river people update their forecasts. But it does not look like that is going to happen. I hope they have more updates tomorrow than 1. That would be irresponsible given the situation, especially Pagosa, forecast to hit 4 1/2 feet above “Major Flooding Stage” with 11,432 cfs (flood stage is 4476 cfs)

About 40 minutes after my preliminary update on the areas forecast to exceed prior flood levels, NWS GJT put out flood warnings for affected areas. Nice to see them changing their tune (again).

I have a couple of models to share: one I have used before, the other- not before current pre-storm prep.

First, the NBM: I have used it a lot over the last few weeks. It is a high-resolution model that smooths low-resolution multi-model solutions. The good about that is it takes multiple model runs from “model members”.– Got very close to the rabbit hole there. Why do they call it that? Do rabbits live in a hole?- See, I told you.

I will save all of that for a boring weather post; it’s a good idea to talk about the differences between the weather models.

Been awake since 1 am, not an excuse-anyway.

Here is the NBM

These totals are higher than yesterday’s, before last night’s/overnight’s precipitation. It does a good job with elevation (un)smoothing.

I have not mentioned this before, but look at the bottom right of the precip map. See that “Max 6.78″? You can match that with the colors; in this case, the three potential areas that the models predict that 6.78” of liquid equivalent precipitation could fall are La Platas, Wolf Creek, or the Southeast San Juans (south of Wolf Creek).

Now another new one in the lineup. It’s an experimental NOAA model ready to officially replace the NAM3k next year.

It is RRFS  (Rapid Refresh Forecast System); NOAA calls it “next generation”. I can’t confirm its accuracy yet; I haven’t spent enough time with it, and I’m anxious to see how it verifies. Right now, it could be my favorite model, especially this winter.

It is a convection-allowing model suite built on an FV3 dynamical core… I did it again.

Here it is, bottom line: my first reaction was that the model handles elevation in our area the way it really is. You may have heard me say in the past, “this model run is impressive, but there is absolutely no way this could possibly happen”. This model is exactly the opposite.

Look up by Purgatory: It actually registers the lower elevation at Purgatory at 550 versus the peaks on either side. Same thing with Animas heading up to Silverton.

My biggest concerns are the bullseyes where we don’t need them-Above Vallecito, Wolf Creek, and the La Platas.

Very excited about turning the clocks back; that means I get model data an hour earlier! (nerd)

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Saturday Mid-Morning Flood Details Please Read

On By durangoweatherguy

10/31/26 Saturday 9:30 am

I’m just posting the forecast Above Flood Stage locations for the time being. The current forecast for the Animas in Durango (both locations) is near Action Stage. I don’t expect it to stay there.

As I have said, these river forecasts lag the latest forecasts. What I have been seeing in the models is snow levels rising tomorrow to near or above 11,000 ft.  Snow levels remain high until between 10 pm Sunday and 12 am Monday, when they finally drop below 10,000 feet. Again, that is dependent on the cool front showing up on time.

The weather models are not backing down at all from their aggressive precipitation forecasts

Rain falling tomorrow on last night’s snow may be problematic.

 Forecast Above Previous Flood Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast Above Flood Stage

 

 

I will post again this afternoon, or when there are any meaningful changes.

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Friday Morning Update: Early Flood Information And Model Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/30/26 Friday 5:00 am

Changes:

  • Flood Watch Issued
  • Models continue to speed up the onset of the first batch of precipitation, now expected to arrive tonight and depart Saturday afternoon-Dry for trick-or-treating? Maybe…
  • Models are increasing their forecast for the first batch of precipitation, now expecting 0.50″-0.80″ by Saturday afternoon.
  • The main system is expected to linger until Monday afternoon in the lower and mid-elevations and until Monday night in the higher elevations.
  • Snow levels will be slightly lower tonight and tomorrow than on Sunday, so in some cases, rain on snow, which is not good.
  • Snow levels are finally forecast to drop late Sunday into Monday morning (unless the cold front stalls, which it usually does)

Here is the Excessive Rain Outlook (ERO) from the Weather Prediction Center for Sunday Morning through Monday morning: We don’t often see such a high risk.

Here is a list of the rivers and locations already forecast to be at or above action stage by (or before) Monday; this list will likely get much longer.

San Juan River at Pagosa, Mancos River at Mancos, La Plata River at Hesperus, La Plata River at State line, La Plata River at Farmington, Animas River at Cedar Hill, Animas River at Farmington, Los Pinos near Vallecito, Navajo at Chromo.

I am not going to load the hydrographs yet because it’s all going to change…

Models: From low to high

European

German

WPC: If you look real close, there is a 5.33″ bullseye right over La Platas

UKMET

GFS AI

Canadian

I will be back around 1 pm. Looks like another busy weekend!

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Thursday Midday Latest & Model Comparisons

On By durangoweatherguy

10/29/26  Thursday

Quick Note: Models show the storm speeding up through the first half, with 0.30″-0.60″ of liquid precipitation by Saturday afternoon.

Conversely, they are slowing the Sunday system; it may be with us most of Monday.

I continue to see high snow levels of 10,000’+ until the last 6 to 10 hours of the storm. That will make for a difficult snow forecast for anyone trying to figure it out.

The latest from NWS

Hydrologic Outlook
COC007-033-067-083-113-UTC037-302100-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1053 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low pressure begins to dig southward from the PACNW on Friday,
tapping into a fetch of Pacific moisture that will evolve into an
atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday and Saturday across the
region. Lighter rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will reflect,
initially lower, moisture. However, a few thunderstorms could produce
impactful downpours on saturated soils left over from last weekend`s
historic rainfall.

Deeper moisture develops Saturday night and early Sunday. This is
expected to produce heavier and more widespread rainfall across
southeast UT and southwest CO Sunday and Monday, mostly below 10000
feet. While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a
growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated
hillsides in the region. This could produce rock, mud, and debris
flows onto roadways, as well as flash flood prone burn scars, washes,
slot canyons, and arroyos. Early estimates predict an area of 1 to 2
inches of new rainfall for portions of southeast UT and southwest CO.

This is a preliminary forecast that hinges on slight shifts in a
strong moisture plume impacting the region. It also attempts to
capture the most statistically likely outcome, despite stronger and
weaker outlier predictions. Outdoor enthusiasts, motorists, and
residents of recent flood impacted areas are encouraged to remain
abreast of the developing forecast in the coming days.

Finally, at least an acknowledgment. But I have seen no models that show only 1-2 inches of rain. Grand Junction NWS is still downplaying the event, saying the rivers will flow below action stage.  Apparently they did not see this:

Keep in mind: bad data in, bad data out, so if they expect this peak with 1-2 inches of rain, what would double do?

I dug deep and found those model runs from before the last event. Overall, the GFS AI and Canadian are very similar to before- remember, those were the most accurate models last time. The similarity ends with the European. I will be watching that closely.

 

Here are some comparison model runs: current vs. last week.

Current GFS AI

Last week GFS AI

 

 

Current Canadian

Last week Canadian

Current European

Last week European

That’s all I have for now. If something changes before the morning, I will jump back on.

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Wednesday Afternoon: Concerning-Every Model From This Morning Went Higher

On By durangoweatherguy

10/28/26 Wednesday Noon

The big story is in this post’s title. After the models increased totals overnight, they did it again this morning. Not only for Sunday and Monday, but now for Saturday too; of course, it was right after I said, “I would not be surprised if the Saturday precipitation did not happen.”

I am going to skip the detailed snow-level talk for now. Models are fluctuating those snow levels as they try to anticipate when the cold air will arrive versus the moisture. At a glance, rather than a deep dive, it looks like the snow levels will start high, in the 10,500 to 11,500 range, and drop below pass levels by late Sunday afternoon or evening.

If I were planning to go over the passes Sunday late afternoon through Tuesday morning, I would change my plans. You may not even have a choice, because they may pre-emptively close passes early before it gets bad.

OK, I have talked about the models; now let’s see them

European

European AI

Canadian-these bullseyes in the Canadian and the GFS AI below it are very concerning.

GFS AI “crazy totals”

We are still 4 days out, so I can’t share the shorter-term/higher-resolution models yet. I can add those to the mix tomorrow afternoon.

If, 24 hours from now, the models are this aggressive or higher. I will be pushing the panic button, as I did early on last week.

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Monday Morning: Our Next Storm

On By durangoweatherguy

10/26/26 Monday 3:45 am

Overview

Expect nice fall weather through midweek. Flow will shift to the SW on Thursday, with slightly warmer temperatures and increasing humidity levels by Friday.

Upcoming Storm

Yesterday I was so close to talking about next weekend’s storm. I saw 4 very aggressive model runs showing eye-catching rain and snow totals, then I saw one with slightly lower totals than the other 4. So I decided to hold off until this morning.

Yes, snow levels will be lower with this next storm. For now, I am pretty comfortable with snow starting at 9,500-10,000 feet and then lowering through the weekend, perhaps much lower by Monday morning.

Given what the region has experienced, I felt a sense of urgency to share this information. But really, I’ve been hinting about this Halloween Storm for a while.

When I give you hints, it means I am seeing activity I have to keep an eye on, but I am not ready to commit because it is too far out. Fast forward to today, and we’re just a few days away. It’s time to start sharing.

With the last event, the model consensus was locked in on precipitation totals. By the way, the models have consistently underforecasted the highest totals over the last 2 months. That is something to keep in mind when interpreting “crazy” totals.

This system is slightly different than the last few. Here is what is the same: strong low pressure traveling down the coast, picking up tropical moisture to dump over the forecast area over a couple of days as the low pressure tracks across the region.

Here is what is different, and why the models may be struggling a little. There are two sources of tropical moisture. The first is remnants of Hurricane Vance.

The models are not sure how much of that moisture will get wrapped up with the low because, as we have seen, these lows take their time, and as I said the other day, the strengthening deep low-pressure systems don’t care what the models are forecasting; they are going to do what they want.

The other source is a plume of tropical moisture originating east of Hawaii. This plume has some Atmospheric River(esque) attributes. But unlike the mid-winter ARs that usually bury the Sierra and leave us with paltry leftovers, this one is different. This firehouse is pointed northeast right over San Diego. The models think it will take the familiar path directly into our forecast area.

I am going to stop there on the setup. Even I get weather fatigue after a while, so let’s move on to the early model forecasts.

I am going to hold off on projected snow totals for now, likely until Thursday or Friday. That said, many models forecast 1 to 2 feet of snow above 9,500 feet.

The initial storm window is: Onset, late Friday to early Saturday. Departure: Early Monday to early Tuesday. I’ll tighten this up as we get closer.

Here are the liquid equivalent forecasts for this next event; as always, these are subject to change (by a little or by a lot) before it starts. Also, don’t take these as exact forecasts. Look at the highs and the lows and use that as a range.

European

NOAA’s NBM

European AI

A huge smoothing factor with this version of the model. Keep in mind what I said about guidance versus forecast.

AI GFS “crazy” totals.

Canadian

What does this all mean for additional flooding? That is the question. On one hand, it could mean a lot of precipitation falling on already saturated soils. On the other hand, with lower snow levels, runoff from higher elevations may be limited this time.

I know there is a lot of “maybes ” and “potentiallys” in this post. That is normal a few days out.  I am not trying to worry anyone yet. But I don’t want to spring this on everyone without a warning on Thursday or Friday, when the Winter Storm Watches come out for areas over 9,500 feet.

I would rather be wrong and have everyone be aware than wait until I am 100%. If anything changes, I will post again this afternoon.

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Saturday Update: Weekend Showers And Thunderstorms

On By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 am- 6:30 am

I haven’t addressed this in a while, but the time I put at the beginning of each post is when I sit down at my desk and start perusing the models. I am trying to get into the habit of putting the time I finish before I hit the publish button.

Overview:   Wet likes to stay wet… Showers and thunderstorms today, tonight, and tomorrow, moving out of the area late Sunday. The heaviest rain will fall today.

This should give way to 4 or 5 days of temporarily dry weather while the storm track retreats north of our area.

Then, Friday night into Saturday, models are advertising another multi-day storm. I know. It’s becoming a familiar setup: a west coast low-pressure system combines with tropical moisture and gets funneled into our area. It’s too early to dig into this. I will need to see a couple more days of model runs before I have any confidence in the details

News?

I am not sure when this happened, but the local radar is working; at least in Durango, I noticed it last night. It is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. It picks up the activity below the Grand Junction/National Radar.

“La Plata Live Radar” (these radar screenshots were taken at 5:20 am)

BUT, you can’t rely on it 100%; it has a very limited range, so you need to check both local radar and the site’s Hi-Res Radar. These screenshots were taken at the same time (5:20 am)

“Hi-Res Radar”

To switch between the two, click the layers icon at the top left of the screen, right above the full-screen button. For the La Plata Live Radar, I like to switch to “Dark” mode; for Hi-Res, I leave it on “Satellite” mode.

Fingers crossed it works this well in the winter!

Current Weather

So far, the activity has been spotty, but when the first storm blew up over my neighborhood at 4 am, I got brief heavy rain that dropped 0.20″ in a couple of minutes. The rainfall rate briefly hit 3.57″ per hour.

Since then, I have had occasional on-and-off showers (here comes another one at 6:20 am). It appears the La Plata radar has a little longer lag time than the national radar.

Based upon this early activity, I fear the models are severely underforecasting this weekend event, and I am very concerned! I feel like I am doing a play-by-play here: this latest cell briefly measured rain intensity of 4.09″/hr.

I already have had 0.61″ up here in DW2. It’s going to be a long day!

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