10/22/26 Thursday 3 am
For the first time in a while, there are MANY changes to discuss, but they all concern flood potential. I discovered a “vulnerability” (for lack of a better term) on the River Forecast Center site that is very unfriendly to casual users. I will cover that in just a moment. First I want to cover the precipitation models
Going forward for this event, rather than showing all the models, I’m going to show only the European model for a few reasons.
- The European was the first model to pick up on this precipitation event days before any other model.
- The European was also the first model to pick up on the secondary system that will affect us this weekend.
- The European model has more versatile parameters that let me show rainfall left to fall for any given time period.
- Tracking the flooding potential will take extra time now that I’ve discovered issues with the River Forecast site.
Here is the latest European showing rain left to fall from 6 am this morning to the last drop Sunday night/Monday morning.
River Forecast Site Issues
Some locations don’t have Flood Stage and Action Stage data. They aren’t flagged as at risk because the data is missing. Some are shown as “normal”; others are listed as “significant rise”- which, ironically, shows a green dot on the location. I say that because they use a yellow dot for “action stage” and a red dot for “flood stage”. So, normal thought progression when you look at that is: red dot=warning; yellow dot=caution; green dot must be safe?
Not so much! When you look at historical data for some of those locations, the current forecast peak is, in some cases, higher than the historical high, yet it is flagged by a green dot!
This definitely answers all the “what about Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos/ etc.” questions we had. As I said, I was as surprised as everyone; now I know why.
New data will be out in 3 hours, I think. They did a model update last night, early evening, a lot of rain has fallen since then… So I will limit this to the new locations. And do a more detailed update mid-morning. The last two days, they have done an update around 8-9 am.
Los Pinos is forecast to hit a historic peak: 6.93 feet with 2806 CFS peaking at 6 am Friday morning. This exceeds the 2019 runoff.
Vallecito Creek is forecast to peak in the top 3 historic flows: 4.22 feet with 2,745 cfs, peaking Friday morning at 6 am.
Durango Pump Station south of town is forecast to reach a historical peak: 8.35 feet with 7401 cfs. ****** The biggest effects will be south of River Oaks, especially heading south on La Posta Rd. Jack Rabbit area and Weaselskin come to mind. Residents in that area should understand the significance of exceeding the prior high set in 2019!*****
Cherry Creek at Red Mesa: No historical data is available. Current observation shows 1.06 feet with 0 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.94 feet with 113 cfs Friday at 6 am.
La Plata River below Cherry Creek near Red Mesa: No historical data available. Current observation: 2.94 feet with 124 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.83 feet with 645 cfs Friday at noon.
Piedra near Arboles: Forecast to hit the 4th highest level in history. Forecast peak 6.21 with 5311 cfs Friday at 6 pm.
I hope to get the latest data and have the Flooding Update out by noon!