Tag: Telluride

Sunday Update: Tracking The Pattern Change And The Demise of El Nino

On By durangoweatherguy

11/08/26 Sunday 4:00 am

A high-pressure ridge has dominated our weather, keeping the storm train well north of us.

If we beleive the models, we may see a pattern change first affecting the West Coast around November 12th. By a week from today, moisture is expected to move into Arizona and New Mexico, mostly missing us, but another storm is on its heels that looks more promising. All models show this, though timing varies.

I would love to roll out the precipitation maps now, but there is still too much uncertainty. If models remain consistent over the next couple of days, we can take a closer look.

Pivoting

I have been saying this Super El Niño may not technically set any records. We just started the final 3-month period to determine whether this will be a record, so it won’t be until February before anyone can declare it a record. But temps will have to sustain or warm for the next 3 months (through the end of January).

Here is the secret nobody talks about. NOAA runs a bias-corrected version of their over-exuberant CFS model. It shows El Niño has already peaked and ocean temps will fall dramatically.

Before I show you NOAA’s data, let me explain how and why they do this. They use their CFS model to forecast sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Their CFS model is inconsistent and tends to run warm. Here is what they do. They take the model run, then load in all the actual results (versus the forecast) to correct the model’s biases.

Here is what nobody talks about.

If you follow the dashed black line (the mean), it shows these temps falling off a cliff after peaking in October. Guess what has not happened since October: The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Train. In October, we were seeing multiple hurricanes forming off the southern Mexican Coast and the Central American Coast.

Not anymore. The EPAC hurricane season doesn’t end for three weeks, so we may still see something develop.  But I don’t think it would be a stretch to suggest a correlation between El Niño peaking during what now looks like the peak of the hurricane season.

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Saturday Afternoon-Wrap Up

On By durangoweatherguy

10/31/26 Saturday 2:00 pm

I have been waiting and hoping that the river people update their forecasts. But it does not look like that is going to happen. I hope they have more updates tomorrow than 1. That would be irresponsible given the situation, especially Pagosa, forecast to hit 4 1/2 feet above “Major Flooding Stage” with 11,432 cfs (flood stage is 4476 cfs)

About 40 minutes after my preliminary update on the areas forecast to exceed prior flood levels, NWS GJT put out flood warnings for affected areas. Nice to see them changing their tune (again).

I have a couple of models to share: one I have used before, the other- not before current pre-storm prep.

First, the NBM: I have used it a lot over the last few weeks. It is a high-resolution model that smooths low-resolution multi-model solutions. The good about that is it takes multiple model runs from “model members”.– Got very close to the rabbit hole there. Why do they call it that? Do rabbits live in a hole?- See, I told you.

I will save all of that for a boring weather post; it’s a good idea to talk about the differences between the weather models.

Been awake since 1 am, not an excuse-anyway.

Here is the NBM

These totals are higher than yesterday’s, before last night’s/overnight’s precipitation. It does a good job with elevation (un)smoothing.

I have not mentioned this before, but look at the bottom right of the precip map. See that “Max 6.78″? You can match that with the colors; in this case, the three potential areas that the models predict that 6.78” of liquid equivalent precipitation could fall are La Platas, Wolf Creek, or the Southeast San Juans (south of Wolf Creek).

Now another new one in the lineup. It’s an experimental NOAA model ready to officially replace the NAM3k next year.

It is RRFS  (Rapid Refresh Forecast System); NOAA calls it “next generation”. I can’t confirm its accuracy yet; I haven’t spent enough time with it, and I’m anxious to see how it verifies. Right now, it could be my favorite model, especially this winter.

It is a convection-allowing model suite built on an FV3 dynamical core… I did it again.

Here it is, bottom line: my first reaction was that the model handles elevation in our area the way it really is. You may have heard me say in the past, “this model run is impressive, but there is absolutely no way this could possibly happen”. This model is exactly the opposite.

Look up by Purgatory: It actually registers the lower elevation at Purgatory at 550 versus the peaks on either side. Same thing with Animas heading up to Silverton.

My biggest concerns are the bullseyes where we don’t need them-Above Vallecito, Wolf Creek, and the La Platas.

Very excited about turning the clocks back; that means I get model data an hour earlier! (nerd)

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Friday Morning Update: Early Flood Information And Model Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/30/26 Friday 5:00 am

Changes:

  • Flood Watch Issued
  • Models continue to speed up the onset of the first batch of precipitation, now expected to arrive tonight and depart Saturday afternoon-Dry for trick-or-treating? Maybe…
  • Models are increasing their forecast for the first batch of precipitation, now expecting 0.50″-0.80″ by Saturday afternoon.
  • The main system is expected to linger until Monday afternoon in the lower and mid-elevations and until Monday night in the higher elevations.
  • Snow levels will be slightly lower tonight and tomorrow than on Sunday, so in some cases, rain on snow, which is not good.
  • Snow levels are finally forecast to drop late Sunday into Monday morning (unless the cold front stalls, which it usually does)

Here is the Excessive Rain Outlook (ERO) from the Weather Prediction Center for Sunday Morning through Monday morning: We don’t often see such a high risk.

Here is a list of the rivers and locations already forecast to be at or above action stage by (or before) Monday; this list will likely get much longer.

San Juan River at Pagosa, Mancos River at Mancos, La Plata River at Hesperus, La Plata River at State line, La Plata River at Farmington, Animas River at Cedar Hill, Animas River at Farmington, Los Pinos near Vallecito, Navajo at Chromo.

I am not going to load the hydrographs yet because it’s all going to change…

Models: From low to high

European

German

WPC: If you look real close, there is a 5.33″ bullseye right over La Platas

UKMET

GFS AI

Canadian

I will be back around 1 pm. Looks like another busy weekend!

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Friday Morning: From Denial To Flood Watch: NWS GJT Plays Catch-Up On Incoming Surge (Again)

On By durangoweatherguy

10/30/26  Friday 4:00 am

The last two days weve heard this:

“Chances for river flooding remains low at this point, as these totals will be spread
over an almost 48 hour period.”  “River flooding continues to look unlikely
at these values spread over 48 hours.”   “River flooding seems unlikely, but localized impacts due to rainfall on saturated soils are expected.”  “While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated hillsides in the region.”

Now This:

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
942 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

COZ019-021>023-UTZ022-028-029-302100-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.A.0011.261101T1200Z-261102T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-
Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-La Sal and
Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
Including the cities of Pagosa Springs, Silverton, Rico, Cortez,
Mancos, Dolores, Dove Creek, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, Blanding,
Oljato-Monument Valley, Goulding, Bluff, Tselakai Dezza, Aneth,
Montezuma Creek, Mexican Hat, Halchita, White Mesa, Monticello, La
Sal, Eastland, Spanish Valley, Fry Canyon, and Canyonlands National
Park
942 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, San
  Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains and southeast
  Utah, including the following areas, Canyonlands/Natural Bridges,
  La Sal and Abajo Mountains and Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, recently burned areas, and other low-lying and
  flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm
  drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

Things are changing quickly while the CBRFC (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) plays catch up with their river peak and flow forecasts. I will have a more detailed update out soon!

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Thursday Midday Latest & Model Comparisons

On By durangoweatherguy

10/29/26  Thursday

Quick Note: Models show the storm speeding up through the first half, with 0.30″-0.60″ of liquid precipitation by Saturday afternoon.

Conversely, they are slowing the Sunday system; it may be with us most of Monday.

I continue to see high snow levels of 10,000’+ until the last 6 to 10 hours of the storm. That will make for a difficult snow forecast for anyone trying to figure it out.

The latest from NWS

Hydrologic Outlook
COC007-033-067-083-113-UTC037-302100-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1053 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low pressure begins to dig southward from the PACNW on Friday,
tapping into a fetch of Pacific moisture that will evolve into an
atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday and Saturday across the
region. Lighter rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will reflect,
initially lower, moisture. However, a few thunderstorms could produce
impactful downpours on saturated soils left over from last weekend`s
historic rainfall.

Deeper moisture develops Saturday night and early Sunday. This is
expected to produce heavier and more widespread rainfall across
southeast UT and southwest CO Sunday and Monday, mostly below 10000
feet. While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a
growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated
hillsides in the region. This could produce rock, mud, and debris
flows onto roadways, as well as flash flood prone burn scars, washes,
slot canyons, and arroyos. Early estimates predict an area of 1 to 2
inches of new rainfall for portions of southeast UT and southwest CO.

This is a preliminary forecast that hinges on slight shifts in a
strong moisture plume impacting the region. It also attempts to
capture the most statistically likely outcome, despite stronger and
weaker outlier predictions. Outdoor enthusiasts, motorists, and
residents of recent flood impacted areas are encouraged to remain
abreast of the developing forecast in the coming days.

Finally, at least an acknowledgment. But I have seen no models that show only 1-2 inches of rain. Grand Junction NWS is still downplaying the event, saying the rivers will flow below action stage.  Apparently they did not see this:

Keep in mind: bad data in, bad data out, so if they expect this peak with 1-2 inches of rain, what would double do?

I dug deep and found those model runs from before the last event. Overall, the GFS AI and Canadian are very similar to before- remember, those were the most accurate models last time. The similarity ends with the European. I will be watching that closely.

 

Here are some comparison model runs: current vs. last week.

Current GFS AI

Last week GFS AI

 

 

Current Canadian

Last week Canadian

Current European

Last week European

That’s all I have for now. If something changes before the morning, I will jump back on.

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Wednesday Afternoon: Concerning-Every Model From This Morning Went Higher

On By durangoweatherguy

10/28/26 Wednesday Noon

The big story is in this post’s title. After the models increased totals overnight, they did it again this morning. Not only for Sunday and Monday, but now for Saturday too; of course, it was right after I said, “I would not be surprised if the Saturday precipitation did not happen.”

I am going to skip the detailed snow-level talk for now. Models are fluctuating those snow levels as they try to anticipate when the cold air will arrive versus the moisture. At a glance, rather than a deep dive, it looks like the snow levels will start high, in the 10,500 to 11,500 range, and drop below pass levels by late Sunday afternoon or evening.

If I were planning to go over the passes Sunday late afternoon through Tuesday morning, I would change my plans. You may not even have a choice, because they may pre-emptively close passes early before it gets bad.

OK, I have talked about the models; now let’s see them

European

European AI

Canadian-these bullseyes in the Canadian and the GFS AI below it are very concerning.

GFS AI “crazy totals”

We are still 4 days out, so I can’t share the shorter-term/higher-resolution models yet. I can add those to the mix tomorrow afternoon.

If, 24 hours from now, the models are this aggressive or higher. I will be pushing the panic button, as I did early on last week.

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Tuesday Afternoon: Starting To Come Together

On By durangoweatherguy

10/27/26 Tuesday 12:30 pm

Up-to-the-minute changes (subject to more changes, of course)

No precipitation Friday. The first part of the event starts after midnight and before 9 am Saturday. Models depict very, very light precipitation Saturday.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this Saturday event doesn’t happen.

Early to mid-morning on Sunday, the moisture plume arrives in our forecast area, with heavy rain and sticky wet snow.

Precipitation continues all day; the snow level steadily drops in the afternoon as the cold front to our northwest filters in. If the models are correct, the snow levels could flirt with 8,000 feet Monday morning before the system moves out.

Here are the latest model runs; it might just be me, but all but one of them look a little more similar.

European

NBM

Euro AI

UKMET

GFS AI (crazy?

We will see what tomorrow brings.

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Tuesday Morning: Model Mayhem

On By durangoweatherguy

10/27/26 Tuesday 4 am

Yesterday morning’s model runs threw a wrench in the whole weekend setup! The European in particular had consistently shown 2″ to 3″ of liquid precipitation for the event, but one complete model run flipped to a solution showing 0.50″ to 1.00″.

This happened Sunday mid-morning as well. Then it flipped back. The other models are split between all-in and expecting less.

There are some wholesale changes in the big picture. Initially, the setup showed the remnants of Vance coming over the border in two batches. The first batch goes through Texas heading into the plains states.

The second batch comes several hours later through Arizona and into our area, bringing precipitation late Friday and early Saturday morning. This batch never really showed high precipitation totals. In those earlier runs, heavier precipitation arrived later Saturday and intensified on Sunday.

Now things have changed; models show the initial moisture batch is struggling to reach far enough north to bring precipitation to our area, and the deeper Pacific tropical airmass is slowing until Sunday, potentially lasting into Monday in some cases.

What does all of this mean? To me, it means we have to wait for better consensus on timing and track.

One the one hand, we are still seeing some models pump out high event totals:

Canadian:

GFS AI

European AI

On the other hand, some of these totals have come down (though some are up since yesterday afternoon, which adds to the confusion).

European (Legacy)

NBM

German

You will notice that the totals on these last 3 models are less than they were 24 hours ago. If we hadn’t experienced the last 2 months of heavy precipitation, we would consider these totals significant, “only 1 to 2 inches.”

So while some of these models have trended lower, Saturday night through Monday still could be a significant event with multiple impacts.

Snow levels will still be around 10,000 feet, and they could drop lower Sunday late or Monday morning. That is still something to be aware of for travel over the passes.

Hopefully, the next batches of model runs over the next 4 to 7 hours will show more consensus, but I am not holding my breath; there are a lot of pieces to this puzzle, and I left out most of those details in this update; too much could change between now and then.

I will be back around 1 pm.

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Wednesday Afternoon Model Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 12:30 pm

The models initialized pretty well on rain start times across the forecast area.  That is encouraging or scary depending on your perspective.

While I am thinking about it, keep this in the back of your mind. If you have watched any weather media lately, you have probably heard about Super Typhoon Champi (pronounced Chompy). Champi is big enough that it could recurve all the way from Asia to Alaska’s Bering Sea, wreaking complete havoc on the fishing fleet (probably ending up in next year’s Deadliest Catch episodes).

From there it could slide down the Canadian Coast, then the Pacific Northwest Coast, slide all the way down to the Central/Southern California Coast, and end up as a big storm in our backyards. I don’t have models that track that far yet; this is pure intuition.  I might be wrong; I’ll have a better idea in 7-10 days when the models can pick it up.

I got dangerously close to heading down the rabbit hole there…

The WPC NOAA Weather Prediction Center) finally updated their ERO (Excessive Rain Outlook) today; nothing like waiting until the last minute.

Here are the latest crazy model runs. I will not be surprised when the reports are logged if we see totals higher than forecast guidance.

These forecast totals run from 6 am this morning through Sunday night.

T=Telluride C=Cortez M=Mancos D=Durango B=Bayfield P=Pagosa Springs WC=Wolf Creek Pass

NBM

German

GFS AI

European

Canadian

I’ll be back in the morning.

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Wednesday Morning

On By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 3:30 am

 Overview

Showers should start moving into the western forecast area this morning, then late morning to around noon across the northern and central portions, and early afternoon in the eastern portions. At least that is what the latest models are forecasting (so it could change a bit)

I have very few changes overall. One thing I am watching is dropping snow levels for Saturday and Sunday. This could change, but for now it looks like they could drop below pass level.

I have given it thought, and I have decided not to treat the weekend totals as a separate event. Models don’t always do a great job defining start and stop times, especially with successive systems.

That is why, even though they are different systems (one ending Friday afternoon and another starting Friday evening), we’ll use model guidance for totals between now and Monday morning. As I said, I am more concerned with the overall totals than trying to determine starts, stops, and lulls.

We have a lot of new people and some longtime followers who need a refresher, so I made cheat sheets for the forecast maps.

T=Telluride C=Cortez M=Mancos D=Durango B=Bayfield P=Pagosa Springs WC=Wolf Creek Pass

Going forward, I will include these “cheaters” every time I post forecast maps. All of these maps show total liquid equivalent precipitation from Wednesday through Sunday evening

German Model: Further clarification on map locations correlated with forecast amounts shown. 1.65=Telluride, 2.46=Cortez,  5.44=NE of Bayfield near Upper Pine Fire Station number 8, 5.74=Pagosa Springs

NBM (model)

European Model

Canadian Model-Crazy!

GFS AI

I’ll update flood potential mid-morning when the new data is out. I am curious to see if there are any new additions to what we saw yesterday.

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