10/21/26 Wednesday 9 am

Before I get started, I have received many emails asking about the area in and around Vallecito and Lemon Reservoirs. First, I was as surprised as everyone else. Perhaps it will be more like when than if. We will see.

Los Pinos, Florida, and Vallecito Creek all have gauges and are tracked by the River Forecast Center. I can monitor flows. So if they somehow dont catch the rising flows, I can let everyone know what I am seeing on the near-live observations.

I won’t share the little graph portion anymore, just the data. Two changes: La Plata River at Hesperus and the Animas at Cedar Hill, near the New Mexico border, are now forecast to be above action stage at peak flow. Action stage means you should monitor the situation closely, and you may experience minor flooding in low-lying areas.

All of these peak times are subject to change by NOAA’s River Forecast Center.

On these data boxes next to “Forecast Peak in the parentheses have the projected time and date of the peak. In the example below for Animas Durango, it is (10/24/00z). That is 6 pm Friday.

 Animas Durango near Science Center:

Notice the forecast peak has increased and sits (for now) a couple of inches or less below action stage. If you are close to creeks that flow into the Animas, I suggest you come up with a game plan.  Or contact the County EMS. This also applies to the Trimble area and areas along 550 between Trimble and Animas City.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	6.97 ft, 7213 cfs (10/24/00Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs
Current Observation:	3.54 ft, 1142 cfs (10/21/14Z)

 

La Plata River at Hesperus: The forecast peak has increased above the action stage.  Peak is forecast for Friday at 6 am

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	5.07 ft, 487 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs
Current Observation:	3.94 ft, 71 cfs (10/21/14Z)

 

Mancos River in Mancos is no longer on the list. I don’t understand enough about it to explain why. I am just telling you what their models are predicting.

 

La Plata River at CO/NM state line: Is still right below action stage. The peak is forecast for Friday at noon

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	7.73 ft, 802 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs
Current Observation:	3.62 ft, 10 cfs (10/21/15Z)

 

Animas River at Cedar Hill near CO/NM border: Forecast peak has increased. It is now above the action stage. Forecast peak is Friday at 10 pm.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	9.59 ft, 7760 cfs (10/24/04Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs
Current Observation:	5.75 ft, 1281 cfs (10/21/15Z)

 

San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: The forecast peak remains above flood stage. The peak forecast is Friday at 6 am. If this verifies, it will be the 10th highest peak on record for this location. 1 through 8 were decades ago. 9th highest occurred 5/23/2005.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	10.73 ft, 4705 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 4477 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 3487 cfs
Current Observation:	5.51 ft, 470 cfs (10/21/15Z)

 

My next weather model update will be out around 2-3 pm.

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