Sunday Update And A Quick Look At The Week Ahead

7/31/22 Sunday 7:30 am
Late-day showers and thunderstorms look like a good bet today. The models struggle with these mesoscale features. Last night we saw them develop mostly over the southern portions of the forecast. Amounts from over a half inch to 2 inches accumulated over the last 24 hours. Most of that fell between 8 pm and midnight last night.
The atmosphere is once again nearly saturated with precipitable water values ranging from 150-180% of the climatological average for this date. High-resolution short-term models show plenty of CAPE available for storm development this afternoon.
On Monday another round of convection will be possible but the atmosphere may be slightly drier than today. It looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will have the best chance of drying out a bit, although you know the drill when it comes to afternoon thunderstorms this time of year. The best chances for storms on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the higher terrain.
All of the models are showing another deep surge of monsoonal moisture for Thursday and Friday. This far out they are in disagreement on the track of that moisture.
My next update will be on Monday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Saturday Afternoon Update

7/30/22 Saturday 2 pm
Today started pretty similar to yesterday. The big question is will the light isolated showers from this morning grow into something larger this afternoon? The models did not handle that situation well yesterday.
 The clouds started to break up and let the sunshine through today around 1 pm. The dewpoints are still high, so if the sun sticks around for a little while it may be all we need for something to really pop. Fingers crossed. If that does happen, the possibility of heavy rain exists this afternoon into the evening because any storms that develop will be slow movers.
Tomorrow looks like conditions will once again be in place for afternoon showers. I will try to get an early update out tomorrow morning.
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OOOPS Friday Afternoon Update Including the Telluride 100

Saturday 6:15 am
I apologize, I never hit the “Publish” button when I finished this yesterday. Most of what the models were predicting yesterday did not come to fruition despite the deep moisture in place. My new update will be out this afternoon
7/29/22 Friday 1:30 pm
Stratiform showers (gentle rain) developed almost immediately after I posted my morning update. They formed mostly over the southern portions of the forecast area. They are slowly moving into the southern portions of Archuleta County as of 12 pm.
Dewpoints are very high. Readings of 60 plus are out there with most areas in the mid to high 50s. This is very high for us. Convection has begun firing in NE Arizona. There is nothing to stop that from happening here, but clouds tend to delay the onset of storms. Storms this afternoon and evening are a good bet but it will be difficult to pinpoint where this will happen.
When it comes to convection, areas with saturated soils tend to be favored. More than likely the areas that were favored yesterday, will be the areas where we see the biggest storms set up today. That being said, keep an umbrella handy because the entire forecast area is ripe for storms to fire this afternoon and evening.
After I posted I received several 1 to 3-inch reports coming in for the 24-hour period. Thanks for those and keep them coming.
Telluride 100

As I mentioned a few times this week it appears late morning to afternoon showers are possible for the event. I am going to put the Euro in motion hourly from 6 am to 6 pm. I don’t have a way to zoom in on the GIF. It is difficult to see so here is a static map that you can reference first so the non-map readers know where to look. This is SW Colorado. Circled in red is the approximate area that the course is in.

Each frame is 1 hour. Most models are only showing 0.25 to 0.50 inches across the course over the 12-hour period. The CAPE values do not become highly elevated until 3 pm. So assuming the models are correct, all of this is good motivation to finish early!

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Friday Morning Update

7/29/22 Friday 6:40 am
As expected, widespread showers and nice thunderstorms developed yesterday lasting well into the night. Expect a repeat performance today. If the sun makes an appearance early expect thunderstorms to develop more quickly. A quick look around at networked weather stations shows anywhere from 0.5o inches to nearly 2.00 inches of rain has fallen throughout the forecast area in the last 24 hours.
As a reminder, the radar in Grand Junction is still down. The radar soundings that you see on any particular app you are using are not showing accurate depictions of what is actually occurring throughout our forecast area. These images show what is happening very high up in the atmosphere.
They are being detected from Denver area radar with a little help from Pueblo and ABQ. Because the storms have been strong and the precipitation has been heavy the images have looked correct, but there are many gaps in what is actually happening. It is similar to looking at a sentence with most of the letters missing.
I will do another update this afternoon with a more detailed look at Saturday as well as conditions for the Telluride 100.
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7/28/22 Thursday 6:30 am
Yesterday was relatively quiet during the day in most areas. The exception was San Miguel and portions of Ouray Counties where storms set up. Then Wednesday evening storms set up mostly east of 550 and a few isolated areas west of Forest Lakes really got hit with over 2 inches of rain. That was an anomaly compared to what other areas received.
Today we have another flood watch issued. The difference between today and yesterday is that the models support this idea of widespread showers developing. A repeat performance will be on tap for Friday. Cooler daytime highs will accompany this unsettled weather. Showers may persist into the evening hours and many areas may wake up to rain tomorrow morning.  An umbrella will be a recommended accessory today and tomorrow.
FLOOD WATCH  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
334 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2022  
  
COZ003-008>010-012-013-017>023-UTZ022-028-029-282200-  
/O.CON.KGJT.FA.A.0004.220728T1600Z-220729T0400Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/  
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND  
BATTLEMENT MESAS-GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-  
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND  
DALLAS DIVIDE-NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN  
MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-FOUR CORNERS/UPPER  
DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-  
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIO BLANCO, EAGLE, EDWARDS, GLENWOOD   
SPRINGS, CARBONDALE, BASALT, SKYWAY, ASPEN, VAIL, SNOWMASS, CRESTED   
BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK, MARBLE, BUFORD, TRAPPERS LAKE, RIDGWAY, GLADE   
PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, HESPERUS,   
GATEWAY, NUCLA, CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD,   
IGNACIO, PAGOSA SPRINGS, BLANDING, BLUFF, MEXICAN HAT, MONTICELLO,   
CANYONLANDS NATIONAL PARK, DEAD HORSE POINT STATE PARK, AND FRY   
CANYON  
334 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2022  
  
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH   
10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...  
  
* WHAT...FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,   
  ESPECIALLY ON BURN SCARS AND AREAS WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOIL.  
  
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH, INCLUDING THE   
  FOLLOWING AREAS, IN COLORADO, ANIMAS RIVER BASIN, CENTRAL COLORADO   
  RIVER BASIN, FLAT TOPS, FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, GORE AND   
  ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, GRAND AND BATTLEMENT   
  MESAS, NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES   
  RIVER, ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS, SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN, SOUTHWEST   
  SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE AND WEST   
  ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS. IN SOUTHEAST UTAH, CANYONLANDS/NATURAL   
  BRIDGES, LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST UTAH.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING.  
  
* IMPACTS...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF RIVERS,   
  CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS. IN   
  ADDITION, HEAVY RAINFALL OVER RECENT BURN SCARS SUCH AS THE   
  GRIZZLY CREEK FIRE, LAKE CHRISTINE FIRE, PINE GULCH FIRE, PACK   
  CREEK FIRE, ICE FIRE, 416 FIRE AND EAST CANYON FIRE BURN AREAS,   
  AMONG OTHER SMALLER, MORE RECENT BURN AREAS IN THE WATCH AREA.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY  
    RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY  
    RAIN, FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE,  
    ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS  
    FROM RECENT RAINFALL.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION   
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.  
  
Here is something we don’t often see–we made the excessive rainfall outlook category 3 (out of 4).
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Wednesday Afternoon Update

7/27/22 Wednesday 1:45 pm
Yesterday isolated storms developed in the afternoon, the Durango area was the big winner with amounts from 0.60 inches to over an inch. The coverage was not widespread and just a couple of miles out of town most areas got little to no precipitation.
As far as I know, storms have so far eluded most of the forecast area so far, we’ll see. As I mentioned this morning, the models were not overly optimistic about widespread showers developing. That is supposed to change tomorrow and Friday with widespread showers moving into the forecast area.
For the weekend, it still looks like scattered to widespread afternoon showers will occur. The Euro, Canadian and German models are showing up to 2 inches of rain by Monday morning across most of the forecast area. The GFS shows 1 to 2 inches and the blended models are right in the middle.
I will do an overnight model update Thursday morning early. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Flood Watch

7/27/22 Wednesday 6:30 am

The NWS radar is down again. This time through Tuesday, August 2nd. I think mainly because of that they have issued a Flood Watch for the forecast area. Because they can’t adequately track storms, they issued a Flood Watch. The weather models do not support this. However, the models do not do a great job at pinpointing mesoscale storm development. So while this may be a CYA issuance, all the conditions are ripe for potentially heavy rain somewhere in the forecast area.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
211 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

COZ018>023-UTZ022-028-029-280600-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.A.0003.220727T1800Z-220728T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox
Valley/Lower Dolores River-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas
River Basin-San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-La Sal and Abajo
Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton,
Rico, Hesperus, Gateway, Nucla, Cortez, Dove Creek, Mancos, Durango,
Bayfield, Ignacio, Pagosa Springs, Blanding, Bluff, Mexican Hat,
Monticello, Canyonlands National Park, Dead Horse Point State Park,
and Fry Canyon
211 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible,
  especially on fire burn scars and areas with already saturated
  ground in the San Juan Mountains west through southeastern Utah.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado and southeast Utah,
  including the following areas, in southwest Colorado, Animas River
  Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Northwest San Juan
  Mountains, Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River, San Juan River
  Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains. In southeast Utah,
  Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
  Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...From Noon MDT today through midnight MDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. In
  addition, heavy rainfall over the Pack Creek Fire, Ice Fire, 416
  Fire and East Canyon Fire burn areas, among other smaller, more
  recent burn areas in the watch area. Residents and travelers near
  any of these burn areas should prepare for potential flood
  impacts. Be sure to stay up to date with information from local
  authorities.  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
  Low-water crossings may be flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Heavy rain has fallen in these area over the past few days
    and deep monsoonal moisture is forecast to move to these
    areas today with showers and thunderstorms likely.

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A Wet End Of July And The Extended Outlook

7/26/22 Tuesday 5:45 am
I was among some of the frustrated out there who watched storms barely miss my neighborhood or deposit 11 drops of rain on my driveway. Until yesterday, when a nice cell set up and deposited about 0.60″ in my area. I got reports from several other areas of similar amounts, 1 location south of Purgatory picked up just over an inch.
Don’t worry so much about day-to-day, there are 6 days left of the month. The models have juiced up those remaining 6 days. They were waffling back and forth on the weekend, but at the moment they seem to be agreeing that the afternoon storms will continue Saturday, Sunday, and beyond. This will likely affect the Telluride 100, especially in the afternoon. More on that in a couple of days.
Here are the latest models runs showing the precipitation amounts between now and Monday morning August 1st.
NOAA NBM blended model
GFS
NOAA WPC blended model
Euro
Today is Tuesday so it is time to look at the extended runs of the Euro and GFS. They are both showing strong positive precipitation anomalies through August.
Here are the forecast amounts above average.
GFS through August 28th
Euro through August 31st
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More On The Bridge Tomorrow…

― DURANGO BRIDGE REPAIR ALERT ―
July 25, 2022

 

Additional bridge repair work is needed on the US 160 bridge over the Animas River

Motorists will encounter lane shifts and traffic delays at US 160-US 550 intersection near the DoubleTree Hotel

DURANGO ― The Colorado Department of Transportation will perform additional repair work on the US Highway 160 bridge over the Animas River, located on the south side of the DoubleTree Hotel and just west of the US 160 and US 550 intersection in Durango. The work will take place tomorrow, Tuesday, July 26 from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.

Traffic Impacts

Motorists will encounter both westbound and eastbound lane shifts and crews will attempt to keep traffic moving through the work zone. However, significant delays can be expected at the US 160 and US 550 intersection due to congestion caused by the limited lanes available. Travelers should allow themselves extra time. Motorists and pedestrians are asked to seek an alternate route, if possible. Motorists are urged to watch for workers and their equipment, slow down and drive with extreme caution.

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Sunday Morning Update

7/24/22 Sunday 6 am
Not too much to talk about yet this morning. Dewpoints are on the rise and Precipitable Water is 150-170% of the climatological average for this time of year. This already sparked a few isolated showers overnight.
Showers will develop first in the higher terrain around midday. As the afternoon wears on widespread showers should “fill in the gaps” from north to south and west to east. It appears we will have a good chance of the showers extending into the evening in many areas resulting in cooler temperatures all week.  This routine looks like it will repeat itself several times in the upcoming days!
The Euro and NOAA’s high-resolution NBM blended model continues to point towards a wet end of July.
NBM through July 31st
Euro same time period
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