More Of The Same And Last Call

If you like the weather you are in luck, more of the same for the foreseeable future. This pattern is going to continue through at least next week. Mid to late next week cooler weather will envelop much of the US to our east. By late next week followers east of the divide may get some cool to cold weather for this time of year. Snow? Maybe. For us in SW Colorado, not a chance according to what I am seeing right now, perhaps just a few degrees cooler but still above average temps and below average precip. No getting around it, I am going to have to mow the lawn.

I have some things I need to do today, then this afternoon I am going to draw names for the contest. I will notify the winners via email first because some have indicated that they didn’t want to be included in the drawing.  If they tell me they decline the prize I will draw again.  Check your email later today, as soon I hear back from everyone I will post the names and will make arrangements to deliver the prizes. If you have not entered and want to be included in the drawing, you have until 2 pm today to do so.

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Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!

Update On Warmth And A Look Ahead

Highs on Thursday will be the highest of the week, topping out in many areas below 7,000′ at or above 80 degrees.

Here are the forecasted highs for Wednesday

wedshigh

And for Thursday, that 78 is at the airport, so likely a few degrees warmer in town.

thurshigh

This weekend and going into next week things will cool slightly but continue above normal.

Here are the temperature anomalies for next week showing the slightly above-average temps from May 3rd through the 10th. Notice the colder temperatures for the remaining 2/3rds of the US.

4ththru11th

At this point, it does not make a lot of sense to look much further down the road. But most of the long term models right now show slightly above average temperatures for us and below normal precipitation for the majority of the Northern Hemisphere.

Most of the people I follow are predicting an active hurricane season for the east coast of the United States. I have also read that there is a direct correlation to a colder than average May for the eastern 2/3rds of the US and a high number of landfalling hurricanes for the east coast of the US. This was the case in 2005 and 2008. 2005 was the longest and most active hurricane season in history and also was the costliest. 2008 I believe was the third costliest season on record. Interesting to note the deadliest hurricane season, as in most recorded deaths, was 1780. Now that’s a trivia question you could ask 10,000 people and nobody would know the answer!

 

In case you missed my post yesterday, I am going to do the drawing for the contest on Friday. I will notify the winners via email first because some have indicated that they didn’t want to be included in the drawing.  If they tell me they decline the prize I will draw again. Once I have the 5 winners for sure, I will announce them and will make arrangements to deliver the prizes.

If you didn’t donate and enter before and you still want to you have until Friday morning. Thanks for following!

Click here and donate for 5 chances to win!

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Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!

Warmer For the Next Four Days

What’s up with the wind?

There has not been a lot to talk about lately, so I haven’t.  This is the time of year I get questions about the wind. The wind is pretty common all of the time in this area. In late spring it seems to come out of nowhere. The same thing that causes the wind when a storm blows through is what causes wind this time of year. It is caused by barometric pressure changes. Think about low-pressure systems blowing through, even when a front passes from an unfavorable direction. As the front approaches in the winter, we see snow squalls and all hell breaks loose for a while, then after it passes the air pressure is equalized and the wind goes away.

This time of year there are usually big temperature swings between early morning and afternoon. The sun is at a higher angle now (remember the sun angle right now is the equivalent to roughly mid-August). As the sun warms the cool air it changes the air pressure, the change in air pressure causes the wind. This is a simplified explanation but you get the idea. So if you are wondering why it is nice and calm in the morning then around the noon hour the wind picks up, that is why. Of course, if there are fronts or troughs approaching or waves or ripples in the flow that is going to affect things as well.

It looks like our max temps will hit Thursday, then by the weekend things will start cooling down a little. I don’t want to speculate much beyond that. There are models saying that the mountains will still see snow after the first week in May! One is indicating that Denver has not seen their last snow.

While the SW US sees the heat much of the country will be below normal for the time being. Keep that in mind if you are traveling east. Feel free to check in with me if you are going to be traveling.

Contest update

Just an update on the contest, I was hoping we would get better news from the Governor about more establishments being allowed to open. My original intent when I started this was to benefit the businesses that had been truly impacted (nothing against the grocery stores and liquor stores and dispensaries but they have had captive customers). I know some stores are now going to re-open for “curbside” service, but I don’t know how applicable that is to most of our retailers that have been closed. That being said I am going to do the drawing on Friday. I will notify the winners via email first because some have indicated that they didn’t want to be included in the drawing.  If they tell me they decline the prize I will draw again. Once I have the 5 winners for sure, I will announce them and will make arrangements to deliver the prizes.

If you didn’t donate and enter before and you still want to you have until Friday morning. Thanks for following!

Click here and donate for 5 chances to win!

Click here to contact

Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!

Summer Is Around The Corner

For those of you waiting for it to be just a little warmer to enjoy the outdoors, you are going to be happy campers pretty soon. After we get through this week a strong ridge of high pressure is going to start building in, as early as Sunday, and temps are going to skyrocket. We may hit 80 degrees in some locations by mid to late next week!

 

For today, there could another uptick in shower activity this afternoon. By now you all know the drill, just as was the case this morning the showers will be scattered in nature. The peak CAPE values occur at around 3 pm.

nam-nest-conus-colorado-cape-7502800

The rest of the week looks similar to what we have been experiencing. Overnight temperatures are going to be dependent on cloud cover in your area. Generally hovering within a couple degrees on either side of freezing for mid and low elevations, so gardeners you may not be completely out of the woods yet.

By Sunday the SW US will be under a building ridge of high pressure. This means warm and sunny days ahead, thats the good news and the bad news depending on how you look at it. What is very uncertain at this point is how long those conditions will last but we (or at least I) will enjoy it while it lasts.

Here are the temps according to the GFS starting Sunday. I chose the GFS because it is showing lower high temps than the Euro.

Sunday

gfstempssun

Tuesday

gfstuestemps

Thursday

gfsthurstemps

You get the picture

As I said, it is not exactly clear how long the ridge will be in place but it looks like the above average temps will hang around until at least the first few days of May.

If you are lucky enough to get some thunderstorms pop up this afternoon let me know. Thanks for following.

If you have not checked out all of the contest upgrades yet, read the details here: March 18th Contest Update!

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Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!

 

Saturday Update

On and off snow showers have started along the pass areas, heaviest at Wolf Creek pass at the moment.

Capture

Otherwise, pretty quiet as expected. The trend continued in the models of reducing the activity for today, although they show an increase in activity tomorrow it is still fairly minimal. For lower elevations, the models agree that clouds will be more common than rain. The GFS is still bullish on accumulating snow for mountain areas with 3-6″ for areas from Silverton to Red Mountain and over to Telluride. Euro has been more in the 2-4″ category. Again, as I said yesterday that is a tall order this time of year unless you have a big storm. As I will show you in a minute comparing those totals to the high-resolution model is pretty sobering.

There is no sign of any type of significant storm in the near future in the latest model runs. However, the models are suggesting an active pattern with some type of wave coming through nearly every day. Unfortunately, this does not usually equate to decent low elevation precipitation. The problem is in this active zonal flow pattern none of the pieces of energy have time to develop before they get here. The models tend to overproduce the mountain precipitation as well unless you specifically look at the higher resolution models.

Here is the latest GFS for total precipitation by Monday morning

gfs-deterministic-colorado-total_precip_inch-7394800

This shows .64″ at Telluride with an inch around Red Mountain pass. Compare that to the 3km NAM model.

nam-nest-conus-colorado-total_precip_inch-7394800

.18″ at Telluride with much higher amounts on isolated uninhabited areas. That takes the wind out of the sails. The case is the same at Wolf Creek as the higher resolution model shifts the precipitation south.

The distortion is more prevalent when you compare snowfall amounts.

GFS

gfs-deterministic-colorado-total_snow_10to1-7394800

Here the GFS shows 4.5″ at Telluride with near 8″ at Red Mountain, compare that to 3km NAM

nam-nest-conus-colorado-total_snow_10to1-7384000

.9″ at Telluride with nearly a foot at Wilson Peak and the San Miguel mountains. That is probably a more realistic scenario.

Overall, this weekend looks a bit boring, unless you live in the southeast. Believe it or not, this insignificant piece of energy (for us) is going to drop south and rapidly enhance and cause another severe storm outbreak from east Texas to the Carolinas on Sunday and Monday. I don’t think it will be as severe as the outbreak last week but still incredible to see what happens as these things exit our state.

Thanks for following and your support.

If you have not checked out all of the contest upgrades yet, read the details here: March 18th Contest Update!

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Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!

Showers For Some This Weekend

Yesterday I mentioned that a series of disturbances would be moving through our area every few days into next week. The first one arrives Saturday then a reinforcing shot will arrive on Sunday. More on the way next week but I will just focus on the first two for now.

I expect little to no impact in the lower elevations on Saturday but better chances for a passing scattered shower on Sunday. Saturday the best chances of precipitation will be in the mountains above 9,000 feet. The models are showing very light activity throughout the day. Sunday looks like there will be a much better chance for some convection developing.

The models have been trending towards lower precipitation on Saturday (almost to the point it is not worth discussing) and higher precipitation on Sunday.

Here are the latest totals through Monday morning

Euro

ecmwf-deterministic-colorado-total_precip_inch-7373200

GFS

gfs-deterministic-colorado-total_precip_inch-7394800

I am going to leave the snow totals out for now because it is very difficult to accumulate snow this time of year because of the high angle of the sun.

I am going to post updated forecast totals Saturday morning before I journey out to battle the crowds at the stores so check back then. Hopefully, the trend will continue and we will get some meaningful precipitation on Sunday. Depending on how things look in the next 24 hours I may add the snow totals in. Thanks for following!

If you have not checked out all of the contest upgrades yet, read the details here: March 18th Contest Update!

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Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!

Advisories Issued, But Should They Be?

I have not liked this storm set up as a major producer of snow for our southern mountains. I have seen the models overreact a number of times until the system actually makes it into the state. The NWS gets all excited and issues advisories and then the models flop and figure it out usually right after the issuance. Yesterday afternoon the advisories for Silverton and Telluride came out and rather than post them I decided to give it another model cycle and wait it out. My thought process was that there would still be plenty of time to jump on board if necessary this morning before the snow started falling.

Here were the models’ runs yesterday before they issued the advisories.

Euro yesterday

euro41512z

GFS yesterday

gfs41512z

New Euro

euro41600z

New GFS

gfs41606

So far my suspicions seem to be on track. I am not saying it won’t snow and I just don’t know that those strongly worded advisories we warranted. That being said the snow should start to pick up south of Red Mountain and near Telluride by later today. If Wolf Creek gets some action it would likely be much later today and tonight as energy associated with this system moves east. The hi-resolution short terms models keep hinting at this happening.

Here are the latest totals from NAM 3km model.

nam-nest-conus-colorado-total_snow_10to1-7142800

You can see the little bullseye south of Wolf Creek. I don’t have a lot of faith in this happening because the other models are not on board with this at all. Whenever there is this much disagreement this late in the game there is a problem with the outlier model’s analysis.

Looking ahead over the next few days, what looked just a couple of days ago to be a return to warmer weather now looks unsettled with a series of small systems coming through every couple of days. This type of pattern is referred to as zonal flow and there is pretty good agreement among the big three medium-term models that it will occur.

Although I don’t see us receiving above-average precipitation over the period, one of the systems the models are showing next week has some potential, I will be keeping an eye on it.

If you have not been on the CDOT website lately (and why would you be?) they upgraded many of the webcams on 550 north, I just noticed some light wet snow is falling but the temps are not much cooler at the higher elevations than down here so the snow is not really accumulating yet.

If you have not checked out all of the contest upgrades yet, read the details here: March 18th Contest Update!

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Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!

Here Comes The Real Cold Then Snow?

The colder air will drop in tonight and Tuesday night with lows approaching the upper teens to low 20s depending on your location. On Wednesday night or Thursday, another system is going to slowly work its way south bringing widespread snow mostly in the Northern and Central mountains and the Front Range but eventually some snow into the San Juans. The new Euro really lights up the totals, but there is not a lot of agreement among the models how all of this is going to go down. I am including the totals today just to make people aware of what is possible in the Thursday-Saturday time period.

Here is the GFS.

gfs-deterministic-colorado-total_snow_10to1-7265200

The Euro

ecmwf-deterministic-colorado-total_snow_10to1-7265200

And the Canadian

gem-all-colorado-total_snow_10to1-7265200

We have a couple of days to track this and may see some big changes in the models so if you are traveling within the state Thursday-Saturday be aware of the possibility of impacted travel, especially over the passes. Next Update Tuesday afternoon.

If you have not checked out all of the contest upgrades yet, read the details here: March 18th Contest Update!

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Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!

One Cold Front Coming Up

Or down I guess is technically more correct. The polar jet is going to be making an appearance and forcing a cold front into Colorado overnight. These are the type of systems that get a lot of airplay but SW Colorado will feel less of the effects than the rest of the state.

Nothing much has changed since my last post. Monday will be colder than Sunday, Tuesday morning the temps should bottom out in our area. These systems tend to be fast movers. Anyone heading east tomorrow will be affected more than us. Eastern Colorado and out across the plains states will take it on the chin for a while tomorrow. Light snow showers will continue throughout the state until Tuesday.

After Tuesday the models diverge and are disagreeing on another potential system mid to late next week or weekend.

Here are the Euro snow totals through Tuesday. The actuals in Colorado and Wyoming may be higher because it looks like the ratios could be close to 20-1 in some areas.

Also notice that ABQ and Santa Fe will get in on the action since they are further east.

ecmwf-deterministic-central-total_snow_10to1-6898000

If something fun or unexpected happens with this the passage of the front I will post tomorrow, otherwise, I will update on Monday and see if we can better figure out the next system comes headed this way.

If you have not checked out all of the contest upgrades yet, read the details here: March 18th Contest Update!

Click here and donate for 5 chances to win!

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Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!

Thursday Update

As I mentioned the other day there is going to be an active weather pattern to talk about over the next few days. Unfortunately, the impacts on us will be minimal. The low-pressure center in California is wobbling around a bit, the models are trying to develop some late shower activity this afternoon and evening. A piece of energy broke away from the main system I feel like it is going to be inconsequential to all but a few in Montezuma and Dolores counties maybe San Miguel and Montrose County as well. If you are in those areas keep me posted. Dove Creek may see a little action.

After that fun passes the California low-pressure system is going to dive south and get a big boost as it gets into East Texas this weekend. Then it is going to cause a lot of problems for the southern states.

Back at home, a cold front will start heading into Colorado very early on Sunday, it looks great on the map and we might get a few flurries out of the deal but this is a better set up for Denver and the Front Range and northern mountains. Things will cool slightly here but not until the clouds clear out after the Front passes. There may be some frost and freeze warnings by Monday or Tuesday so if that affects you keep an ear open for that on Sunday. I will be tracking that as well, and will probably do an update just on the temps sometime on Sunday.

The cold should stick with us for most of the week until slowly eroding east mid to late week. That is how it looks now anyway.

I don’t think too many people are traveling right now, but if you are and have travel weather requests click the blue link to contact me. I have plenty of time on my hands right now!

If you have not checked out all of the contest upgrades yet, read the details here: March 18th Contest Update!

Click here and donate for 5 chances to win!

Click here to contact

Troubleshooting PayPal: PayPal is one of the leading global payment systems in the world, it is owned by eBay. People very rarely report to me that they are having problems donating, but when they do, it is usually between 6-8 am and 6-8 pm on weekdays. My suspicion is that this is due to increased global traffic for online bill pay, and online shopping (especially with the uptick in online shopping due to the virus). I am sorry for any problems this has caused you and please try again. Thank you!