3/21/23 Tuesday 7:15 am

I have no other information on the why 160 closure from Pagosa Springs to  Wolf Creek other than the closure occurred at midnight and crews started work at 6 am. Rumor has it the east side of the pass is now open for skier traffic only from South Fork.

Most areas are in a bit of a lull right now, it won’t last long. Precipitation will fill back in over the next couple to several hours depending on your location. This next wave is warmer and wetter and more convective. Snow levels should rise slightly today likely to around 8,000 feet. However, convective activity can enhance snowfall rates and lower snow levels so don’t be surprised when that happens.

The other factor is the winds. The upper-level jet stream is going to move over the area later today, and then it will intensify for about 36 or more hours. This will lead to very windy conditions and intense rates of snowfall over the passes resulting in more closures. Vehicle travel will be severely impacted

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3/21/23 Tuesday 2:45 am

I am not sure what time it happened, but crews closed a huge stretch of 160 from Pagosa downtown (mm 144) to South Fork due to adverse conditions and safety concerns. I have never seen a closure that far west before. Pueblo NWS has gone all in boosting their upper-range storm totals for Wolf Creek to 5 feet. In their newest Winter Storm Warning issued late Monday night, they said they anticipate the worst to come on Wednesday with up to 4-inch-per-hour snowfall rates!

I don’t anticipate receiving any information for several hours, but I will post when I get the info.

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3/20/23  Monday 3:40 pm

Patience, this storm has not really gotten going yet. Enjoy the lull in the middle of this first wave. The only changes I have seen are an increase in wind gust speeds on Wednesday.

Travel will become impossible over the passes on Wednesday, we may even see wind advisories during the day on Wednesday in the lower elevations. Winds will gust to 75 mph over the 550 passes with 85+ mph gusts over Wolf Creek. The last time wind gusts were forecasted that high on Wolf Creek, they hit 101 mph…

I will post travel updates as I receive them, but I have learned not to try to outthink long-duration storm cycles (like this one) after they start.

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3/19/23 Sunday 3:10 pm

The latest model runs came in very robust once again. I see no reason to doubt them at this time. This week may bring the second-highest precipitation total of the season (right behind the week of January 15th).

I do expect snow at all elevations with considerable to complete melting in the lower elevations. The best chance of accumulation in the lower elevations will be Monday morning. The first wave will be a colder storm, we may see a slight lull in the lower and some of the mid-elevations on Tuesday before the second wave arrives late Tuesday/early Wednesday.

All said and done on Friday you will need a yardstick to measure snow in the higher elevations.

Here are my forecasts. These are for the event totals ending on Friday.

Telluride:  14 to 20 inches

Areas between 8,000 feet and 8,600 feet in La Plata, Montezuma, Dolores, and Archuleta Counties:  14 to 24 inches.

Silverton:  22 to 28 inches

Purgatory:  32 to 40 inches

Wolf Creek:  45 to 58 inches

Mid-elevations from 7,200-7,500 feet will likely see considerable totals, but they will also experience melting and compaction that will be difficult to measure. If you want to attempt to measure the snow this time, I recommend measuring often.

My next update will be sometime on Monday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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3/19/23 Sunday 7:30 am

I will post my forecast later today. This morning I am going to start a bit differently and lead off with the Winter Weather Products that were issued yesterday by the NWS. I was hoping they would get them cleaned up overnight, but that did not happen.

People ask me what I mean by “cleaned up”. Specifically, what I am referring to are difficult to understand Watches, Warnings, and Advisories jumbled all together in one.  For example, issuing a Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Watch for the same area with different start and end times and different snow totals for each. Another example would be what I refer to as a “blanket” advisory (watch or warning) which includes very different areas. Here is a perfect example of areas that should not be grouped together because they are in completely different locations.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIO BLANCO, COLUMBINE, HAHNS PEAK,
TOPONAS, ASPEN, VAIL, SNOWMASS, BUFORD, TRAPPERS LAKE, TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, MANILA, AND DUTCH JOHN 

Last I checked Trappers Lake and Toponas are closer to Steamboat than Telluride.

So here are the edited versions as they apply to our forecast area.

SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND MAYDAY 
316 AM MDT SUN MAR 19 2023  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT  
TONIGHT TO NOON MDT TUESDAY...  

  
* SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 18 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. 
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN.. FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT TUESDAY. FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH, FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY   
  BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. GUSTY   
  WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.

SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND MAYDAY  
316 AM MDT SUN MAR 19 2023  
 
  
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. FROM TUESDAY   
  AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY   
  BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. GUSTY   
  WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.

  
COZ003-004-010-013-018-UTZ023-200000-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.A.0007.230321T1800Z-230323T1800Z/  

NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS  
TELLURIDE
316 AM MDT SUN MAR 19 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 10 TO 16   
  INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ABOVE 8000   
  FEET. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST, SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL   
  COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH.  
  
* WHEN...FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW   
  COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE   
  TOPS. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.

I like the way Pueblo NWS wrote their Winter Storm Warning a little better, I just think they are too low with their forecast amounts…

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
347 AM MDT SUN MAR 19 2023  
  
COZ068-191800-  
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.A.0010.230320T1500Z-230324T0000Z/  
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-  
347 AM MDT SUN MAR 19 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING  
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1- 3   
  FEET, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST   
  AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.  
  
* WHEN...FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE.   
  WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.   
  THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING   
  COMMUTES. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO PERIODS OF   
  HEAVIER SNOW WITH A LULL OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN BETWEEN.   
  THE FIRST PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON   
  AND NIGHT, WITH THE SECOND PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW TUESDAY   
  AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

To summarize their issuances they are calling for up to 4 feet from Silverton to Purgatory and Coal Bank by Thursday afternoon. Up to 16 inches for Telluride and up to 3 feet for Wolf Creek in the same time period.

As I said, I think the snow will continue at least through the day on Friday at Wolf Creek and their final storm total will be between 3 and 5 feet.

The models have shown little change since my last update. I will be working on a forecast for the weekly event total throughout the day and will post it this afternoon.

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3/18/23 Saturday 4:30 am

The models continue to pump out impressive precipitation totals for next week as a couple of massive storms will blanket the area. The biggest change I am seeing is an earlier start time. Models are starting to show the precipitation beginning late Sunday night/early Monday morning. With the storm still out to sea, I would not write that start time in ink just yet. That being said, I expect we will see the first draft of Winter Storm Warnings out by Sunday morning.

Still unsettled are the rain/snow levels, they have been trending lower than the last couple of systems, however, based on the amount of precipitation being forecasted, the tropical source of the precipitation, and the high sun levels of mid-March, I am having a difficult time processing how much snow could possibly accumulate at or below 7,000 feet.

Despite my shortfalls in “imagining” how this could happen, the data shows accumulating snow as a possibility in the lower elevations based on the 700mb temperatures. That model parameter is one indicator of snow level based on the forecasted temperatures at around  10,000 feet. This is due to the fact that the low-pressure troughs with these storms will be stronger/deeper than the last couple of storms.

Here are the latest liquid precipitation runs for next week. Pretty amazing.

European–I consider the European model to be the “Debbie Doubter” of models, so these amounts are pretty impressive for this model.

GFS

Canadian–I feel a need to jump in and translate here. The Canadian is showing 8 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation at Wolf Creek. I doubt what I am seeing, but 100 inches of snow in less than a week would not be unprecedented for Wolf Creek. 60-70 inches would not surprise me a bit.

NOAA’s WPC model–This is a very high-resolution model that I have relied heavily upon this season when writing my forecasts.

My next update will be out Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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3/17/23  Friday 9 am

Yesterday afternoon rain and snow showers redeveloped across the forecast area. As expected, Wolf Creek was the largest beneficiary adding 12 inches to their storm total. Snow showers will redevelop again, perhaps Saturday as well, and Wolf Creek will be the most favored location.

It is almost as if Wolf Creek knows that Purgatory will break the 2018-2019 total so it also wants to break its 2018-2019 total. For that to happen, they need 102 more inches. Considering that 60+ inches could come between now and next Friday, I am not ruling that out!

Before I get to the models, here is the latest information on our overly abundant snowpack.

From left to right is location; elevation; current Snow-Water Equivalent in liquid inches; the normal average for this date in liquid inches; the normal average for the entire season for this particular location in liquid inches; the date that this location achieves its seasonal average. The last two columns on the right are the percentage of the average for the current date and the percentage of the seasonal peak average for the entire season.

So, for example, from this table you can derive the following:

Wolf Creek Summit@10,957′ elevation is showing 40.4 liquid inches of precipitation. Normally on this date, the site has 25.2 liquid inches. The seasonal average for this sight is 35.5 inches and it reaches that peak on April 29th. For this date, Wolf Creek Summit is at 160% of the average and is at 114% of the seasonal peak average

On the bottom, it shows the average percentage of all locations in these basins for this day is 155% and 129% for the seasonal peak. It will be fun to see where this is at next Friday or Saturday!

Next week a couple of storms are going to move through, but at this point, the models don’t show any appreciable break between the two systems so for the purposes of this discussion, we will act as if it is one storm.

All of the models show snow breaking out on Monday. It is too early to pin down a start time, so I will just stick with “sometime” on Monday. As I said earlier there will be a couple of pushes of energy through the area next week but I expect precipitation all week long, perhaps even into next weekend when a third system may move in.  At the moment, I am going to concentrate on next week and I will revisit next weekend in a few days.

It is also too early to predict the accumulating snow levels. All I can say is that all of the models are predicting some accumulating snow in the lowest elevations of the forecast area. They are also suggesting this could be a big snow week in the middle elevations. It is going to be a horrible week for automotive travel over the passes.

Here are the latest model runs for total liquid precipitation from Monday’s first flake through Friday morning.

European

GFS

Canadian

Here is NOAA’s WPC high-resolution blended model. The only parameter that I can run with this is the 7-day total. This run includes anything that falls this weekend plus next week.

My next update will be on Saturday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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3/16/23 Thursday 9:45 am

If you are traveling over Lizard Head or the 550 passes you may encounter spot closures while crews trigger problem areas. These closures may not show up on the CDOT map, the best way to track them is to enable “electronic signs” from the legend and view them on the map.

Example:

 

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3/16/23 Thursday 9 am

Yesterday I alluded to the fact that snow would continue throughout the day Thursday and possibly into Friday in some areas. I was not completely sure exactly where that would happen, but it now looks like the bullseye will be over Wolf Creek.

The main energy with the system is tracking across far NW New Mexico and it looks like it is going to stall over Wolf Creek today. This would be the third time that has happened this season.

There is also a shortwave trough in SE Utah that may lead to instability and trigger light snow showers elsewhere, today. That energy may also enhance the low pressure as it reaches Wolf Creek.

In short, I expect heavier snow to re-develop over Wolf Creek around noon (maybe earlier) and continue through the day and the evening.  Models indicate another 8-16 inches of snow will be possible there.

Elsewhere, instability, high CAPE values, and a shortwave trough may trigger snow showers this afternoon, I don’t expect significant accumulations, but a quick couple of inches would not surprise me. It is very difficult to pinpoint exactly where that will happen, but higher elevations will be favored.

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3/15/23 Wednesday 1:45 pm

Models are indicating the snowfall will intensify throughout the day and become very heavy in the higher elevations tonight into tomorrow morning. Snowfall will continue Thursday and in many areas throughout the day on Friday. Accumulating snow levels will remain high today, they may briefly increase tonight as the deepest moisture arrives, before dropping in the overnight hours.

-Southwest & South-Central Colorado Travel Alert- 

US 160 Wolf Creek Pass is set to close tomorrow while CDOT performs winter maintenance operations

Maintenance crews will conduct avalanche mitigation operations Thursday morning between South Fork and Pagosa Springs

Southwest & South-Central Colorado ― US 160 Wolf Creek Pass between Pagosa and South Fork will close tomorrow morning at 6 a.m. while the Colorado Department of Transportation performs winter maintenance operations. Westbound traffic will be stopped just west of the ski area at the pass summit (MP 167) and eastbound traffic will be stopped near Treasure Falls (MP 157). Do not attempt to bypass the closed gates. Maintenance operations will last for much of the morning, but the exact time of reopening the highway is not known.

 

My next update will likely be Thursday morning unless something comes up before then. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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