Flood Advisory-La Plata

Looking at the near bank full on the Animas near Hermosa, I suspect we will get more advisories. The models are pointing toward some heavier showers in the high elevations of Northern La Plata, Montezuma, San Juan, and Dolores Counties, later today, then tomorrow more widespread affecting most elevations.

As of 9:30 am the Animas was at 5110 cfs, which is 700 cfs more than what it was at 3:30 am.  For reference bank full at the Animas (downtown) is 7548 cfs and flood stage is 10,466.

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 AM MDT TUE JUN 4 2019

…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION CO HAS ISSUED A
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LA PLATA RIVER…

LA PLATA RIVER AT HESPERUS AFFECTING LA PLATA COUNTY

.WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SNOW MELT RUNOFF. THE FLOWS ALONG
THE LA PLATA RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE BANKFULL THROUGH
THE WEEK. MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LA PLATA
RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

SAFETY MESSAGE…CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR WATERWAYS. AVOID
FLOODED AREAS AND UNSTABLE RIVERBANKS. STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY
LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO STATIONS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE NWS GRAND JUNCTION
HOMEPAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT

COC067-070301-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FL.Y.0003.190604T1502Z-000000T0000Z/
/LPHC2.N.SM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
902 AM MDT TUE JUN 4 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION CO HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THE LA PLATA RIVER AT HESPERUS.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 07 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.0 FEET.
* BANKFULL STAGE IS 5.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.5 FEET.
* FORECAST…THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO DIURNALLY OSCILLATE ABOVE
AND BELOW BANKFULL THIS WEEK

 

Click here to donate

 

Click here to contact me

Snowpack Update, Summer Soon

Noon

Low elevations are finally going get some “summery” conditions, coincidentally enough, on the first day of Meteorological Summer (June 1st).  Saturday & Sunday the lower elevations will soar into the mid to upper 70’s with mid 80’s just to the south in New Mexico!

The snowpack will keep the higher elevations moderated a bit. Speaking of the snowpack, I believe that it will finally start dropping after it increased dramatically in the last couple of weeks.

529table

0529sweCapture

This was Wednesday night, check out Vallecito now at 125% of seasonal peak and Columbus Basin (La Platas) 158% of the seasonal peak! Absolutely incredible!

With the warmer weather will come faster melting so keep that in mind this weekend.

Another huge benefit of the warmer weather will be a decrease in the severe storms in the midwest. What most people don’t realize is that it is that the cold weather here in the west is responsible for the increase in tornadic weather in the midwest. It happens like clockwork in the shoulder seasons, when the last few cold air masses of the season in the late spring or first few cold air masses of the late fall get entrained in the west, and they mix with the heat and humidity coming out of the Gulf of Mexico its a perfect recipe for severe weather.  If you look at last year when we did not have widespread cold here, there were a record LOW number of tornadoes in May. People are always surprised to hear that there are 2 tornado seasons a year, but November is also a month for tornadoes.

I don’t see any real meaningful weather makers coming up until maybe Wednesday. At the moment June temperatures look like they should overall be slightly below normal with well below normal temperatures above 9,000 feet. Speaking of below normal Purg is in the low 40’s as I type this with graupel and rain mix. The snow level appears to be about 10,000 feet.  I am ready for Summer!

 

Click here to donate

 

Click here to contact me

 

 

NWS Upping The Ante

3:00 pm

Well, well, well. I did see the Euro run showing a 546 low over us in the overnight hours. What that means is snow down to 6,500 feet. I called it safe at 7,000, because no other model shows that level of thickness. So here is the new WSW. Pretty cool if snow makes it down to 6,500′ the last week in May!

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2019

COZ018-019-280600-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0017.190528T0300Z-190528T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0031.190528T0300Z-190528T1600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, SILVERTON, AND RICO
243 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2019

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM MDT TUESDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET…

* WHAT…SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FEET.
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.

* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MDT TUESDAY.

 

Click here to donate

 

Click here to contact me

 

 

Winter Storm Watch=Holiday Hedge

Noon

This WSW was issued overnight/early this morning. What we have here is a CYA move, I am not saying I disagree one way or another, however, despite it being nearly June, despite it being a Holiday, it is highly unlikely that this system will hit advisory criteria in the mountains which is 6-12 inches. Call it what you want, I guess but winter weather advisories for 2-5 inches above 9,000 feet don’t exist.

That being said, it doesn’t mean that it won’t snow, in fact, there is a chance of non-accumulating snow back down around 7,200′ overnight. This is a cold system, but it is not going to stick around.

Here is the wording on the WSW, they still have time to cancel it.

1153 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2019

COZ018-019-280200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.A.0017.190528T0300Z-190528T1600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, SILVERTON, AND RICO
1153 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2019

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ABOVE 9000 FEET…

* WHAT…SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9000 FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING RED MOUNTAIN, COAL BANK, AND MOLAS PASSES.

* WHEN…FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 550.

Here is how the GFS portrays this whole thing panning out over the next 48 hour

GFS 50-STATES USA Colorado Precipitation Type (1).gif

Here are totals for the “Old” GFS

Snow

gfs48hr

Liquid

gfstp48

“New” GFS-FV3

fv3snow

Liquid

fv3

Euro snow

ecmwf48

Liquid

europrecip.png

It looks like the storm train will be diverted after Wednesday for a while, but especially in the higher elevations, we will see pop up scattered showers in the afternoon. I didn’t get a chance to mow my lawn over the weekend and probably won’t get another chance until next Sunday, it is going to be deep!

If something useful pops up in the afternoon forecast discussion I will share it.

 

Click here to donate

 

Click here to contact me

 

 

 

 

Delayed

4:30 pm

The next cold system to impact us is currently in Nevada.

Capture

Given the amount of time it will take to get here, I am going to hold off on the details until tomorrow, but it does look like areas below 8,000′ may get a little bit of snow, it also looks like as this system passes on Tuesday we could return to afternoon showers perhaps through next weekend.

Check back tomorrow for the latest.

 

 

Click here to donate

 

Click here to contact me

 

Special Weather Statement

5 am

Guess what I will be talking about later today?

Taaaadaaaa!

Here is a little SWS to get your day rolling. I will update later this afternoon.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
407 AM MDT SUN MAY 26 2019

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-270600-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RANGELY, DINOSAUR, CRAIG, HAYDEN, MEEKER,
RIO BLANCO, COLUMBINE, HAHNS PEAK, TOPONAS, STEAMBOAT SPRINGS,
GRAND JUNCTION, FRUITA, PALISADE, COLLBRAN, DE BEQUE, NEW CASTLE,
MESA, PARACHUTE, RIFLE, SILT, EAGLE, EDWARDS, GLENWOOD SPRINGS,
CARBONDALE, BASALT, SKYWAY, ASPEN, VAIL, SNOWMASS, MONTROSE,
HOTCHKISS, DELTA, CRESTED BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK, MARBLE, BUFORD,
TRAPPERS LAKE, GUNNISON, CIMARRON, RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK,
TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, HESPERUS, GATEWAY,
NUCLA, CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,
PAGOSA SPRINGS, BLANDING, BLUFF, MEXICAN HAT, MANILA, DUTCH JOHN,
VERNAL, JENSEN, BALLARD, FORT DUCHESNE, RANDLETT, MOAB,
CASTLE VALLEY, THOMPSON SPRINGS, MONTICELLO,
CANYONLANDS NATIONAL PARK, DEAD HORSE POINT STATE PARK,
AND FRY CANYON

407 AM MDT SUN MAY 26 2019

..WINTER NOT DONE WITH US YET

TODAY WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT SOME
GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH, POSSIBLY HIGHER AT TIMES, AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HOWEVER, A DRASTIC CHANGE TO
THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS A LOW TO OUR WEST MOVES THROUGH EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL DROP ABOUT 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN PASSES
WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW COVERED WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9K FEET
POSSIBLY SEEING SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THOSE INDIVIDUALS
TRAVELLING MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS TO DETERMINE IF THEIR TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS
SPRING STORM. AS ALWAYS, MINOR DEVIATIONS IN THE FORECAST CAN
CAUSE CHANGES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS

BTW this does not mean the snow level will be 9,000′ it means the best accumulations will be at or above 9,000′.

 

Click here to donate

 

Click here to contact me

 

Snowpack Update and Weekend Update

6 am

As I had suspected the models were overconfident with the storm and moved further north. Despite this, the snowpack (snow water equivalent) has grown dramatically this week.

Here is a before and after reading from the Snotel sites.

Capture

SWE

After

Capture

523

Unfortunately, they missed the reading from Vallecito last night, fortunately, I have been tracking this and here is Wednesday night’s data with Vallecito.

Capture

522swe.JPG

These numbers are incredible, Columbus Basin in the La Platas still has 42 inches of SWE to run off, Wolf Creek has 46 inches of liquid, and Vallecito has (as of Wednesday night) 17.9 inches which represent 112% of the annual peak which should have occurred nearly 7 weeks ago. The average amount normally for May 24th is ZERO. Stump Lakes which feeds Lemon has 25.5 inches of liquid equivalent which is 139% of their average peak total.

I plan to do an update again Sunday morning, at the moment the storm coming in Monday looks slightly warmer than the last couple with higher snow levels, closer to 10,000 feet. The snow at higher elevations (including Purg) is going to cap high temperatures to the upper 40’s to around 50 this weekend, so even with the sun, it will be cool out.

Graduation tonight should go off without a hitch (at least as far as the weather is concerned) with temps in the upper 50’s to around 60.

 

Click here to donate

 

Click here to contact me

 

 

Precipitation Next Week

11:30 am

Most models show this storm wrapping up by early evening with the heaviest precip falling between now and 6 pm. We will know soon enough but if the surface maps are correct (they were not this morning when I first misidentified the position of the low), the low is east-central Utah and is lifting northeast, if that is indeed the case it would likely steer the precip to the north of most of us and the best case scenario is we would get an aggressive frontal passage and then its over an “Is that it?” storm. We will know soon enough and with slightly nicer weather forecasted for a couple of days, I am kind of over it. In all its glory here is the Euro’s depiction of the situation between now and 6 pm, I wish I was as confident.

ecmwf_ptype_colorado_3.png

Most of you have seen the sunny skies forecasted for through Sunday but I would warn that showers are possible in some areas (favoring higher elevations) Friday afternoon, and Sunday afternoon/evening the next storm could be on its way, so enjoy Saturday!

 

 

Click here to donate

 

Click here to contact me