9/24/26
I am ok. But I need a day or two to figure some things out. I am sure everyone knows that when I don’t post when I said I would, it’s because I am dealing with another setback. The last one was only a week or two ago; this one is pretty overwhelming. I am hoping yesterday and this morning were anomalies. If not, and this is the new norm, I’ll have to readjust some routines and keep going.
9/23/26 Wednesday 5 am
0.25″ to 1.50″ fell last yesterday up until midnight. Lower amounts have fallen since. I don’t have a lot to share yet. The overnight lull should end soon. The weather models aren’t doing us any favors right now, so I’ll pivot to the macro picture.
Radar: At first glance, it looks like it is “missing” us. But our radar(s) have a lot of holes, so (as we all well know) it is not always “reflective” of reality.
Current Satellite provides a better snapshot of what is going on.
We have the jet straight overhead. The flow is also being ushered in via low pressure to our southwest and high pressure to our southeast.
Zooming in on that satellite gives a better look
You can see the deeper moisture (green) is actually to our west (for now).
I’ll track everything on that wide-view satellite as the day progresses. I will likely do shorter, more frequent updates today, as I did yesterday.
Don’t forget your umbrella…
9/22/26 Tuesday 5:00 pm
The Euro morning run released at noon initialized well. DWG Command has 0.35″ in the forecast, vs. Euro’s 0.28″ for right now.
Best initialization I have seen from this model in… a while. Fingers crossed this continues!
Polo keeps intensifying. I assume we will soon get an onslaught of “Super Hurricane Polo” stories. It just became a very strong Category 5 with 180 mph winds and 892 mb! That’s big stuff. Interestingly, it has zero movement; it is stationary, still feasting on the warm water. HINT that’s its job…
9/22/26 Tuesday Noon
Before I get started, I thought you would enjoy this: the long-range 46-day total snowfall forecast (before melting). This is through November 6th.
I will probably start posting these long-range forecasts once a week.
Meanwhile, back to our upcoming rain event.
Isolated showers are starting to pop up around the forecast area. Dewpoints are rising, up to 48 degrees here at DWG Command.
Models are not in consensus for this evening. The Euro is showing moderate to heavy rain later today into the overnight hours. The GFS shows isolated light to moderate showers in the same timeframe. By late afternoon tomorrow, the models start looking more similar. The Euro holds the moisture back a little further west; the GFS prefers heavier showers in the eastern portions of the forecast area. Despite that small difference, the moisture depth looks similar.
They are also suggesting a downtick in heavy precipitation for Thursday across the forecast area as the plume shifts east, only to usher in another plume briefly on Friday.
I have very little confidence in any model right now. I do believe we will see showers, heavy at times, throughout the forecast area. My lack of confidence is in the “when and where”. I also have to tell you, it’s not going to improve.
I say this because Hurricane Polo is pumping that moisture toward us. By definition, it’s a moving target. Winds have increased, and pressure continues to drop. It is currently a category 5 with sustained winds of 165 mph and a minimum central pressure of 920 mb.
Every wobble in its track and every pressure change directly affects these models’ forecasts. It is nearly stationary right now, feasting on warm water to fuel its development. Here is the other issue. It is not even supposed to reach Cabo’s latitude until Sunday. So we will likely have days of uncertainty with the models. Taadaa! Next update tomorrow morning.
9/22/26 Tuesday 10 am
The flood watch area has been expanded from Pagosa to most of La Plata County and San Juan County. Unfortunately, this is not a high-confidence call by the NWS due to model consensus. It is exactly the opposite. The models keep changing with about every run (the latest GFS now includes Friday for heavy rain).
That said, it is 100% the correct call. With this much uncertainty in track and timing, the only thing they can do is issue blanket flood watches.
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026
COZ022-232000-
/O.EXB.KGJT.FA.A.0008.260923T1800Z-260925T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Animas River Basin-
Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, and Ignacio
944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of southwest Colorado, including the following
areas, San Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains.
* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- The ground remains saturated from recent heavy rainfall over the
past week. After a brief break, deep moisture is expected to
return to southwest Colorado Tuesday with a few inches of
rainfall possible during the Wednesday through Thursday
timeframe. In addition, multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through Thursday evening
producing periods of heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding.
Flood Watch National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026 COZ019-023-232000- /O.EXT.KGJT.FA.A.0008.260923T1800Z-260925T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southwest San Juan Mountains-San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Pagosa Springs, Silverton, and Rico 944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of southwest Colorado, including the following areas, San Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Another thing I keep seeing is snow levels dropping to 11,500 feet the next couple of nights, which, if true, could be cool.
I am going to shelve the discussion of the hurricane possibly recurving for now. As I said, if it does recurve, that will be several days from now, maybe even a week. I am going to focus on the next couple of days.
I look forward to revisiting that topic; it requires a lot more analysis. The hurricane models are multi-solution probabilistic. Hurricanes have always fascinated me. Did you know hurricanes have a “job”? More on that when I revisit the recurvature discussion in a few days.
I will be back this afternoon with the new Euro analysis.
9/22/26 Tuesday 5:00 am
I got a late start again this morning; I’m still trying to adapt to/establish a new schedule, if that is even possible anymore.
Today, moisture will continue to flow into the area, increasing the chance of showers as the atmosphere begins to saturate. The main event appears to arrive tomorrow. The situation is evolving; heavy rain is possible across the forecast area.
There is a lot to talk about. Hurricane Polo intensified overnight; calling it what it is, it literally blew up overnight. Not trying to use sensational language, but that is what happened.
As of 2:00 am, Polo was a strong Category 4 hurricane, very soon to be a Category 5. Update: NHC just upgraded it to a Cat 5. We will get that moisture feed over the forecast area, make no mistake.
Yesterday I spent some time talking about not relying on apps for making weather-related decisions. My motivation wasn’t to downplay the potential of this event; it was the exact opposite.
My intended point was that: 1) Every single wobble of this Hurricane can change the trajectory of the moisture feed. 2) Free weather apps are unreliable for the most part, because there is no explanation as to how old the data is that it is using to provide you with a forecast in this complicated scenario. 3) Don’t confuse the potential recurvature of the storm with this moisture plume that will be affecting us for the next couple of days. 4) If the recurvature happens, it won’t happen for a few days.
Hopefully, that clarifies where I am on this. Several inches of rain are possible. It is just difficult to pinpoint the bullseyes within the widespread event. One area I’m concerned about is Arboles, which is still in rough shape from last week. I could count on one hand (and not use all of my fingers) the number of times I have pointed out Arboles as an area of concern over the last decade.
As I said yesterday, models have been favoring Archuleta County for the heaviest rain. This could change. There already is a flood watch for that area starting tomorrow afternoon through Thursday night.
The best way for me to handle this event is to send several shorter updates so I can cover all the topics I want to get to. Stay tuned; as I said, the situation is evolving; it already did while I was writing this.
I just reread this; it is coming across as a bit alarmist. That’s not my point, although some areas will get rain as heavy as last week; modeling still suggests many areas won’t. Of course, that can change; that is why we need to take this one day at a time. I’ll start my next update soon, but I have a lot more data to digest.
9/21/26 Monday 1 pm
Tomorrow afternoon/evening, models show the next moisture plume arriving in SW Colorado. They disagree on timing and location. They seem to be leaning towards the heaviest precipitation falling in the eastern portions of the forecast area.
One thing to keep in mind: the atmosphere will have to saturate again before we can expect much of that moisture to wring out (top-down saturation). Dewpoints are around 30 degrees right now. Models don’t have them hitting the low 50s until 6 pm Tuesday.
Models don’t show PWATs even hitting 100% (average) until 11 pm. tonight. By noon tomorrow, they show them at 145%-still not very impressive. By 6 pm, they climb to over 200%. As a reminder, PWAT isn’t calculated at the surface, so if we don’t get that top-down saturation, showers may not make it to the ground at lower elevations — until the saturation is achieved.
Models show those high PWAT values in place through Wednesday, then they start to diverge greatly. On the GFS, they drop significantly by Wednesday evening; on the Euro, they increase to 300% of average.
So that is why we are going to go one day at a time. Don’t misinterpret that as doubt that we’ll get more rain; I believe we will. By the way, the precipitation model spread is from 1 to 5 inches by Friday night!
Next update tomorrow morning: more on our showers and an update on Hurricane Polo.
9/21/26 Monday 5 am
Nothing to talk about in our weather today; it should be another nice, boring day of seasonal fall weather.
I introduced Tropical Storm Polo into the conversation yesterday morning. Surfing through the weather media and clickbait media, it is already being talked about with sensational claims; I am sure it will somehow be linked to the “Super El Niño” at some point.
The timelines you will hear will refer to effects starting tomorrow, especially in New Mexico and possibly SW Colorado. Don’t confuse that with what I meant about the storm recurving, which, if it happens, would be closer to next weekend or next week and would be much more impactful than these tropical impulses that are always generated when any tropical cyclone develops close to the Mexican Coastline.
Every single model run for our area is affected by every wobble of the developing tropical storm. Tropical modeling is much different than landlocked modeling. I will expand on that topic in my afternoon post.
The takeaway from this morning’s update:
1) Be prepared to hear/read a bunch of misinformation or at least highly edited information sensationalized to garner public attention.
2) In the short term, consider all forecasts, especially from apps, unreliable more than one day out. I am not picking on apps, but most free apps update only once a day.
3) I am going to be taking the data one day at a time as I track how it may or may not affect our area. The debate is how far north this latest impulse will track, which will affect our weather Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.
4) The possibility of the storm recurving is a completely different conversation, and if it happens, it is a completely different topic that would affect our weather 5-8 days from now.
9/20/26 Sunday 5:30 am
I did get up earlier, much earlier, but I got lost in modeling the tropics. I think I found our “recurve” candidate. It is now called 99E; it is slated to become Tropical Storm “Polo,” which could become a Cat 3 or even Cat 4 hurricane soon after. If you or someone you know is going to Puerto Vallarta or Cabo late this week/next weekend, you might want to think about changing your plans.
Nothing around here to talk about. Today and Monday should be dry (then again, “mostly dry” yesterday turned into very wet for some).
The models want to bring a new moisture plume over the area in the Tuesday/Wednesday time period, moving out by Thursday.
This should be a fun week, tracking the upcoming plume and “Polo.” There are also some interesting correlations to recurving Tropical Storms and winter snowfall. I will leave you with that.
I can’t commit to another update today; we’ll see what happens.
Look what that “little cell” that was north of Mancos turned into:
When I look at the satellite, it shows this newly created moisture heading towards Silverton-we will see. As new moisture forms, enhanced by residual moisture, you will notice additional small cells splintering off and developing. The only obs I could find were near Elektra Lake. The rain just stopped, and 0.40-0.45″ fell in a little over 30 minutes…