9/12/23 Tuesday 8:55 am

A series of disturbances will mix with moisture remnants from Hurricane Jova and a favorable jet stream, to bring widespread showers this week over SW Colorado.

After a relatively dry July and August, we are finally seeing the impacts of recurring Pacific hurricanes. This is something I was looking forward to and mentioned in the spring. Additionally, we are seeing a favorable jet stream position. This is the positioning I expect to see more of, especially this winter!

Speaking of winter, do not be surprised to see some snow. Throughout the week, the snow level will drop below 13,000 feet, perhaps as low as 12,500 feet by Friday!

Here are the maps in motion, in 6-hour increments, from now through Friday at 6 pm. The darker the shades, the heavier the precipitation. Green is rain, blue is snow.

Here is the rain potential through Friday. I say potential rather than forecast because it is very difficult to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will fall. This was the case yesterday. I got several reports of very heavy rain, south of Durango near the the Walmart.

Those of you traveling to England later this week need to keep a close eye on Hurricane Lee. Most models show a hit on Nova Scotia. However, I am seeing some interpretive (self-learning) models showing the track could be substantially west of the current track. This would put Cape Cod to Maine in the storm track. Too early too worry, just something to think about for now. Either way, this Hurricane is going to grow in size and its effects will be far-reaching.

Next update on Wednesday.

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9/10/23 Sunday 8:00 am

On Thursday I mentioned that remnants from hurricane Jova may stream across our area in the upcoming week which would result in a dramatic pattern change.  Fast forward a couple of days and it appears that is exactly what is going to happen.

Today will be a transition day as moisture builds in. Showers will be isolated in nature favoring the higher elevation areas today.  Moisture will continue to build in through the day, evening and overnight hours. Don’t be surprised to wake up to some overnight/early morning showers. Rain will be possible over the next few days.

I will be back in town tomorrow afternoon and will try to post as soon as I get home. Significant rainfall will be possible with high elevation snowfall possible as well.

 

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9/10/23 Sunday 7:45 am

On Thursday I mentioned that remnants from hurricane Jova may stream across our area in the upcoming week which would result in a dramatic pattern change.  Fast forward a couple of days and it appears that is exactly what is going to happen.

Today will be a transition day as moisture builds in. Showers will be isolated in nature favoring the higher elevation areas today.  Moisture will continue to build in through the day, evening and overnight hours. Don’t be surprised to wake up to some overnight/early morning showers. Rain will be possible over the next few days,.

I will be back in town tomorrow afternoon and will try to post as soon as I get home. Significant rainfall will be possible with high elevation snowfall possible as well.

 

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9/5/23 Tuesday 7:15 am

As I mentioned on Friday, it looks like we are in for a boring stretch of (no) weather. Actually, a boring fall is pretty typical around here. Hopefully, we will see one of those early fall cold fronts drop into the state within the next month or so. It will be nice to get an early mountain snow. In the short term, it is going to be dry for at least the rest of the week.

What about the rest of the winter? I have been on record since late spring saying we would have a late start to winter and it would evolve into well below normal temperatures and above average snowfall, especially in the lower elevations. I attributed this to a strong El Nino that will be declining and transitioning into an El Nino Modoki. This means that warming shifts further west into the Pacific. The last year we had a similar set-up was 2009-2010.

Now that some of the winter outlooks are coming out, the ones that I have been seeing are saying the same thing. Without being specific to SW Colorado most forecasters are calling for above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures for most of the US. I have to admit, that concerns me a bit, I don’t always find myself agreeing with everyone else.

Here is a recap of what others are saying about the upcoming winter.

Sam at Open Snow did a very nice informative piece a week or so ago. He talked about El Nino in detail but did not go into the transition to a Modoki. He concluded that during El Nino years in the past Colorado averaged about normal (historically average) snowfall compared to all other winters. I agree, and have said in the past many times that the deepest snow totals in SW Colorado have always occurred during Enso neutral (La Nada) years.

One of the services I use for weather models is Weatherbell. I enjoy their products and opinions, although they are very east-centric in their discussions. Here are snow and temperature forecasts. My thoughts on this winter mirror theirs.

Snowfall

Temperatures

Of course, there are the old stand-bys, the Farmers Almanac, and the Old Farmers Almanac. Most forecasters do not take these seriously, that being said, everybody looks at them!

Farmers Almanac

Old Farmers Almanac

I can’t tell you how much I am looking forward to an active weather period.

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9/1/23 Friday 7:40 am

We made it! Welcome to Meteorological Fall. Met Fall begins September 1st and runs through November 30th. Not to be confused with Autumnal Equinox which is September 23rd this year.

Models have been waffling back and forth for days on what to expect this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers look like a possibility about every afternoon through the weekend. The best chances of this happening will be over the higher terrain and the extreme western portions of the forecast area in Montezuma County. Deeper moisture will set up over Utah, if you are headed west that may be an issue.

Looking ahead, it appears that we are in for another stretch of mostly boring weather. Hopefully, by mid-month, we will see the pattern change.

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8/29/23 Tuesday 2:15 pm

Those of you hoping for a mostly dry forecast for Labor Day weekend here may get your wish. The Euro model’s latest run is now only showing light scattered afternoon showers focusing primarily on the northern portions of the forecast area Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons.

This forecast is not yet settled so stay tuned for and expect updates as the week goes on.

Speaking of model changes, the Euro has also shifted the track of Hurricane Idalia much further west to the eastern Panhandle area. Effects will be felt throughout the Gulf Coast. But the most dangerous portion of the storm is now set to hit south of Tallahassee between St. Marks-Port Leon to Perry, Florida. This is a very lightly populated area along the Apalachee Bay. The hurricane will weaken substantially as it comes on land but Tallahassee may experience category-one winds. Tornadoes will also be possible in the area.  At the moment the main force of the hurricane is forecast to come on shore between 2 am and 8 am tomorrow. It would not surprise me if that was delayed.

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Sorry to my loyal Colorado (southwest) followers. I also have over a thousand followers in the Florida Gulf Coast. I have more on the Northwest Gulf Texas Coast.

I was on record with the storm hitting around or north of Cedar Key.  I believe that will still be the case. TPA and CLW will still see 3 to 5 inches of rain gusts to 50.

 

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8/27/23 Sunday 8:15 pm

We have had some impressive rain totals the last couple of days throughout the forecast area. For today, expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers to redevelop, favoring the northern 2/3  of the forecast area (everywhere along and north of the HWY 160 corridor).

On Monday it will start to dry out but isolated showers will be possible in the higher elevations and along the divide. Tuesday and Wednesday should be mostly dry then on Thursday very isolated showers will be possible in the afternoon.

The pattern should begin to transition back to wet by Friday and by Saturday and Sunday wide spread showers will return as subtropical moisture moves back into the area. I will be tracking this all week but as of right now, Labor Day Weekend looks wet.

I am also tracking what will become tropical storm Idalia. There is a high degree of likelihood she will hit the sparsely populated Big Bend area on the northern Gulf Coast of Florida on Wednesday, north of Cedar Key. That being said, a tremendous amount of rain could fall on the eastern side of the storm bringing heavy rain from Tampa north. The storm will likely track through Georgia to the South Carolina Coast and may gain some strength heading through portions of Coastal South and North Carolina.

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8/25/23 Friday 8 am

There have been some nice rain totals the last couple of days. Today we should have plenty of residual moisture and a better chance of convection to trigger the development of storms. Chances are very high that storms will fire early this afternoon in the higher elevations.

As is usually the case with convection, determining where those storms are going to pop in the lower elevations is nearly impossible. If you are located in an area that has gotten heavy rain in the last 24 hours, your chances of seeing more rain this afternoon are pretty good.

I expect similar conditions on Saturday afternoon, with a decrease in coverage on Sunday.

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8/24/23 Thursday 3:15 pm

Very little has changed since this morning. The latest models still show an uptick in moisture this afternoon and evening. A few moderate thunderstorms have broken out in the western and northern portions of the forecast area.

One storm west of Stoner has just triggered a Flood Advisory.

OC083-242315-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.Y.0050.230824T2112Z-230824T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTEZUMA CO-
312 PM MDT THU AUG 24 2023

..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON

* WHAT…FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

* WHERE…A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, MONTEZUMA.

* WHEN…UNTIL 515 PM MDT.

* IMPACTS…MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WATER OVER ROADWAYS.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…
– AT 312 PM MDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.7 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.
– AREAS ALONG AND NEAR HIGHWAY 145 SOUTH OF STONER ARE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES…
WEST DOLORES RIVER, HOUSE CREEK, BEAVER CREEK.
– SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MONTEZUMA COUNTY NEAR AND ALONG HIGHWAY 145 SOUTH OF STONER.

I will be keeping an eye on the radar to see if similar storms break out in other areas and will post accordingly if necessary.

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