Storm 2 a new advisory for low elevations

A County Divided

After getting 70+ comments on Facebook about about the second wave of Storm #1 last night, a couple things are apparent: 1) Most of the snow fell west of 550 and specifically from a line just north of 160 to midway to the New Mexico border. 2) Everybody else is not happy. That shortwave was very similar to the one we had  after the Christmas 2016 storm. I remember at DWestII we got 18 inches from the primary  then the front passed and that night a shortwave brought another 12. I think Hesperus Ski area got close to 4 feet out of that. Everyone else did pretty well but Purgatory and everyone east of 550 missed out on the kicker system. If you heard me on the radio on Thursday, I was asked if I thought that there would be any surprises with the winter this year. I told him the biggest surprise is that the way I perceive the pattern to be setting up, we will have the southern areas of the county getting above average snowfall. This does not mean they will be the only ones to get snow, not at all. I am not going to go into a technical explanation at the moment. I will save that for when a storm is not on the way.  I was using that reference as a segue, so guess what? At the moment it looks like southern and western areas will do much better than everyone else, it is by no means set in stone

Has anyone noticed the wind today? There is a colder air mass sinking into our area. That is going to mean a higher ratio of snow from a lower amount moisture. Nice dry fluffy snow as you increase in altitude.  So here we go again, another advisory was just issued. I would be cautious about these amounts north of town and east of town. The exception would be Pagosa they could do well with this set up. Will we get a kicker out of this system? Absolutely impossible to tell, BUT I am seeing somethings leading we to believe that Cortez to Mancos/Dolores may be in for a second round after this system moves out tomorrow evening. New Mexico NWS has not updated yet, but I have big concerns about the amount of snow that could fall in Aztec and Farmington, no offense to the yellow license plate people, but driving in a lot of snow is not one of the biggest strengths you find down there, of course only in my opinion. I will post anything new I see from ABQ NWS as it comes out. But be safe Northern New Mexico!

Here is the advisory, hopefully this storm will share with eastern and north east La Plata County, but I don’t see it in the modeling.

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
232 PM MST Sat Dec 1 2018

Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
Including the cities of Cortez, Dove Creek, Mancos, Durango,
Bayfield, Ignacio, Pagosa Springs, Blanding,
Canyonlands National Park, Dead Horse Point State Park,
and Fry Canyon
232 PM MST Sat Dec 1 2018


* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches
  with locally higher amounts expected, especially above 7000

* WHERE...Southeast Utah and Canyonlands/Natural Bridges and in
  Colorado, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Animas River Basin
  and San Juan River Basin.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 6 PM MST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery and slushy road
  conditions, especially along state highways

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