Low impact storm

You may have read that a storm is on the way,  you may not have read that it is not coming in favorably for us.  It is going to come in and ride along the ridge in the Pacific Northwest. We need our storms to come in from the southwest, or Central California, or if they come from from the Pacific Northwest we need them to dive south in Nevada or Western Utah. None of these things are likely to happen. At the moment the timing for this system is Wednesday afternoon/evening. However, there is a small system crossing  Idaho today that the models project will split when it reaches northern Wyoming, a small piece of this system could set off some flurries tomorrow from Purgatory to Red Mountain, if this occurs, I do not expect any accumulation. On Wednesday the stronger storm will be moving into the area. Northerly and Northwesterly flow will accompany the storm as it passes through. If this occurs as the models show at the moment, this is a 1-2″ for Purgatory (if we are lucky). Telluride and Red Mountain to Ouray could get 2-5″ but there could be a surprise if the flow is more Northerly.

Here are the projected totals:

GFS

121012zgfs

Euro

1210euro12z

Nam (low-resolution WRF)

121012nam

Could we have another “not storm” out of this?  Too early to tell, just remember Step 1.

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