1:15 pm

The last 24 hours have seen the models all converge on a storm which will be made up of cooler prefrontal air ahead of a storm making landfall in California and moist air from near Baja Mexico. At the moment it appears the warmest air will stay south while the cool air wins out just as it moves into the area overnight Saturday into Sunday. The result would be a snow level likely between 6,000 feet (Euro) and 6,500′ (GFS old).

Here is what that looks like as it comes together.

I am a little surprised that most of the models do not produce more precipitation. But what I can say, we are now spoiled, ruined by the last storm, it will now take something epic to outdo the 5 day period of the last 2 storms.

Here is the latest Euro.

Previous Euro

The one before that

Here is the latest GFS

Previous

The one before that

Here is the CMC

You will notice I am using the snow accumulation graphics instead of the liquid precip graphics. This storm should have ratios between 9&12 to 1 based on your elevation. So I just went with the default of 10-1.

I mentioned earlier that to me, given the setup, I was a bit surprised with these (low) totals. There is one model, the GFS FV 3, that has totals between 50% higher to double the other models, so it is either just an outlier or it’s a pioneer, a trendsetter, we will have to wait and see. Chances are increasing for another storm 4-6 days after this one, too early to speculate what will happen with that.

Stay tuned!

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