Snow will build from the SW to the NE and from higher elevations down to lower elevations this afternoon, it should be snowing everywhere by about 6 pm.
The models have been consistent lately and I feel pretty confident they should verify. People have asked me to try to break out totals over the time periods of the storm, I can’t do that with any degree of accuracy, but I can tell you most models indicate that after 11 pm tonight heavy snow will build in and continue until late Thursday afternoon when very heavy snow will fall through Friday morning then things will moderate throughout the day on Friday. In Archuleta county add a few hours on to that.
The snow ratios will remain high tonight and be just slightly lower tomorrow afternoon. I still think the 17-1 average is a good way to play that.
Here is the WRF HiRes model, it is usually pretty accurate with the 5 am model run. Its resolution allows the model to pick up subtle differences in altitude that we are famous for in the Tri-County area.
Here is the GFS model the lowest resolution model of the 3.
Here is the Euro model, typically the most accurate.
Again I think the best way to go is to use the Euro and a multiplier of 17 against the liquid accumulations you see above, match the color the chart on the right.
Ignacio in town and Cortez Red Mesa 6-10″
Mancos and Dolores 8-14+”
Bayfield and Durango, Breen 14-18+
Skyridge, Rockridge, Timberline etc. 15-22″
Dwests, Pagosa, Hermosa, Shenandoah, Long Hollow, Rafter J, Forest Lakes, Tecolote area, Edgemont, lower Durango Hills, DRR, Hesperus below 7800′ 20-28″
Vallecito, Lemon, upper Durango Hills, Enchanted Forest area, Vallecito, Purgatory, Mayday, Hesperus at 8000′ or better 22-36″. My caveat would be for Purgatory, the models lately have been overdoing the amounts for up there, but they are definitely due for a big storm this year in the 3+ feet range, we will see.
Wolf Creek 30-40″