Wrap Up And A Look Ahead

8 am There was an earlier version of this post that had an issue loading the images, this is the new version.

7 am

It sounds like that last piece went through with a bang, I got a report near Mancos that said they got 12 inches in 4 hours. I got several reports of very heavy snow last night, here it went through quickly only leaving 2 inches of snow, fortunately. Now the clean up begins from the roof releases overnight. I don’t know who the geniuses were who designed houses with metal roofs that slide onto the driveway but my tip for you is if you are in the market for a home in the summer do not overlook that detail. 10 years ago when I moved in I didn’t even think about it and have regretted it ever since.

So, winter is not over. The models are trying to hone in on what appears to be a couple of small systems, relatively speaking, that would arrive in the Friday to Sunday timeframe next week. It is too early for details and my confidence is very low at the moment.

Here is what the pattern looked like as of yesterday afternoon. You can clearly see the deep trough as it worked its way across the area.

one

 

The blues and greens indicate below average (geopotential) heights in the atmosphere (storminess). The orange in the east indicates a ridge of high pressure (more benign weather).

By tomorrow morning, you can see our storm moving across the midwest and plains.

two

 

As we move into midweek there is slight ridging overhead and we are in a slight omega blocking situation, this is defined by troughs to the west and east and ridging in the middle of the country.

three

 

By early next weekend, we are in a zonal flow pattern for much of the country, storms can flow from west to east quickly in this pattern but it difficult this far out to see the pattern, it is often the sign that the pattern is going to change (one way or another).

four.png

 

But by late next weekend, it looks like much of the country will be experiencing below average temperatures with an above average chance of storms developing.

five

 

I don’t usually like to venture out this far with the crystal ball because the ridge axis and trough axis can waver back and forth, having a huge effect on the weather. Late Tuesday or Wednesday the new 46 day Euro run will be out and it will be fun to take a look at that.

I will continue to update on next weekend because some of the model runs over the last couple of days have alluded to a subtropical event hitting the area next weekend, I saw less of that last night, but yuck, I sure hope that doesn’t happen.

 

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One thought on “Wrap Up And A Look Ahead

  1. Mary Lou Liles

    We moved here from California 20 years ago. Fifteen years ago we installed a heated concrete pad in front of the garage doors, so that the snow from the roof would melt away. I think Durango realtors purposely sell those types of homes to Californians. However this recent snow is only going to respond to our snowblower, a machine we did not bring from CA but are now glad to have!

    Like

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