When I talk about the timing of the heavier precip period I don’t want you to think that the storm is done after that, this system is going to be around through Monday and while today will be mostly rain or mix for areas below 8,000 feet, that doesn’t mean that snow won’t fall between now and Monday night. Overnight and Sunday morning snow levels could fall below 7,000 at times. There is also the chance that models could be off on the snow levels. This might come across as indecisive on my part, but the point I am trying to drive home is to just be ready for anything if you get in the car and journey out this afternoon. The heaviest precipitation should start around 2 pm (a little later on Wolf Creek) and intensify over a 3-6 hour period. Heavy snow, heavy rain and thunderstorms, thundersnow are all possible depending on your location. By this evening we will have all of that PLUS high wind gusts will be possible which may impact the passes.
Here is a snapshot of 8 pm, I would not hold the hold model exactly to that time but just know these conditions are possible after 4 pm today and Sunday morning.
Mid to upper 30s mph across central and southern areas of the tri-county area, 40-50 mph on Wolf Creek and 50-60 mph gusts on Red Mountain.
I am still pouring through data to figure out local accumulations, at the moment I still like the idea of 10-15 for Purgatory and Telluride, a little shift in the jet could have quite an impact to that. For Wolf Creek, I am looking for storm totals between 2-3 feet by Tuesday morning.
Reports from people at all elevations will be appreciated this afternoon and evening.
After the morning models come out I’ll review them and get out the crystal ball and see if I can determine who else is mostly like to accumulate some snow out of this mess.