Temps are starting out downright balmy with low 40’s over in the Cortez area down to the New Mexico Stateline in and around Aztec. Low to mid 30’s be found in the mid-elevation areas and 28-32 degrees around Pagosa, Purgatory is 30 with light snow. Telluride and Silverton are in the low 30’s and Wolf Creek is 21 degrees.
Things are going to get going very soon with the first wave Cortez should start seeing showers by 8-9 am and Durango/Bayfield 9-10 am, as you gain altitude on 550 in the north county that will be all snow. Snow should start anytime in Telluride. It’s there but at last check, it wasn’t reaching the ground. The first wave will pass will as the snow levels are gradually rising then the next wave should come in around noon to 2 pm at which point the snow levels could be close to 9,000 feet. I named this storm the Warm Storm for a reason I expect snow levels to hover between 8,000 feet and 9,000 feet while the bulk of the precipitation falls. Overnight those snow levels theoretically should fall but I don’t think there will be much precipitation left.
I like the advisory that was issued and I agree with it. I also like it because it is for this first storm only ending at 6 pm tomorrow. The amounts are a tough call because there are huge model discrepancies with precipitation output. They seem to struggle with a westerly flow. So the bust potential on amounts is huge in either direction. I would say for the most part the models have under forecasted snow at higher elevations most of the season.
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,
RICO, AND HESPERUS
415 AM MST WED MAR 6 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS
MORNING TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET…
* WHAT…SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 8000
FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER WEST-FACING SLOPES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45
* WHERE…IN UTAH, LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS. IN COLORADO,
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE.
* WHEN…FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. HIGHWAY 550
AND MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE ROUTE WILL BECOME SNOWY, ICY AND
SLUSHY. IN ADDITION, STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
I will be close to noon to compare some of the models and take a look at the Friday storm.