The Euro model overnight and again this morning lowered the snow amounts expected with the upcoming storm. This morning the HiRes model has generally raised its expectations with some spikey high elevation totals.
When that happens this close to a storm’s arrival it is not a real confidence booster for forecasters. Balancing the totals is usually a remedy.
Morning Hi-Res model totals
The NWS is staying on the higher side of totals as you can see in the latest advisory.
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,
RICO, AND HESPERUS
553 AM MDT SAT MAR 30 2019
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES BETWEEN 7000 AND 8500 FEET. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 14 INCHES WILL OCCUR ON SOUTH FACING
SLOPES ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN
* WHEN…FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. A
A DETAILED MAP OF THE SNOWFALL CAN BE FOUND AT:
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. EXPECT SNOW COVERED ROADS
AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
I would go with 1-3 inches below 7,000 feet with 2-5 inches for the mid elevations up to 8,000 feet. 4-8″ up to 9,500 feet. There could be some double totals for Telluride, Red Mountain, Silverton areas as well as elevations above 9,500 feet in La Plata, Archuleta, Hinsdale, San Juan, Ouray, and San Miguel Counties.
I am keeping an eye on this one, don’t get caught off guard, there are a lot of components that swing this from a small storm to a bigger storm pretty quickly. I will post in the morning before 9 am.