Overview

May I present the remnant low pressure previously know as Tropical Storm Raymond, this little guy circled in green is going to be responsible for ushering in a lot of much-needed moisture right into our area, it is 11:15 am Monday and in about 36 hours we will start seeing the precipitation. It is going to get a lot of help from another area of low pressure that will drop south along the California Nevada border and will help funnel that subtropical flow into our area. The moisture is going to take a couple of days to move through, at the moment Thursday looks like the highest impact day, meaning the snow levels will be low enough to affect a greater number of people.

Snow Levels

Snow levels will start high Tuesday night/overnight Wednesday (around 9,500-10,000′) but look to settle in around 8,000 feet by Wednesday afternoon. This could change between now and then, but the Euro especially has been advertising that 8,000′ level by noon Wednesday. The biggest variable in these storms is the snow level, many times the coldest air comes in just as the moisture is leaving the area, at the moment I feel much more comfortable with the snow levels going to 7,300′ level than the 6,500′ level before were done. Tomorrow and Wednesday I will be refining that part of the forecast.

Total Precipitation/Total Snow Accumulation

At the moment I would be leaning toward the 10-20 inch range for Purgatory, Telluride and Wolf Creek. The trend is usually your friend when it comes to models, after days of increasing precipitation and snowfall amounts, the Euro’s latest run has backed off overall totals. I will be watching that carefully.

Model Data

I want to share not only the most recent runs but the last couple so you can see the possibilities they have been sniffing out.

We’ll start with the Euro, here is the most recent run showing the total liquid precipitation

Here is the zoomed-in version

Here is the latest Euro for snow

The Euro snow Zoomed-in

Now let’s go back to the last full run of the Euro from Sunday evening.

And the snow

Now Sunday morning

And snow

Now the most recent GFS for precipitation

Here is the zoomed-in version from this same run of the GFS

Here is how that translates to snow on the GFS

And here is the zoomed-in version

I only zoomed the newest runs.

Here was the previous GFS precipitation map from late Sunday night

The previous GFS snow map

Earlier Sunday evening’s GFS precip

Sunday evening’s GFS snow map

So although the latest Euro was off slightly from earlier runs, the models still are seeing a lot of precipitation, hopefully, that Euro run was anomalous and not the start of a trend.

Many times when I see a change in the model data in the GFS or in this case the Euro I go to the Canadian model. I think the Canadian has an unnecessarily bad reputation and in the Winter has been known to give the GFS a run for its money.

So here is the latest Canadian for precipitation

And here it is for snow

I think we will all be happy with precipitation, even if it is mostly rain at the lower elevations, A decent storm right before opening day at Purg is a bonus. There are some models contemplating a couple of more storms over the next couple of weeks, but it is too early to talk about them, one storm at a time for now.

 

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